| 1. |
- Mu, Cuicui, et al.
(författare)
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Ecosystem CO2 Exchange and Its Economic Implications in Northern Permafrost Regions in the 21st Century
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236. ; 37:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate warming increases carbon assimilation by plant growth and also accelerates permafrost CO2 emissions; however, the overall ecosystem CO2 balance in permafrost regions and its economic impacts remain largely unknown. Here we synthesize in situ measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange to assess current and future carbon budgets across the northern permafrost regions using the random forest model and calculate their economic implications under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based on the PAGE-ICE model. We estimate a contemporary CO2 emission of 1,539 Tg C during the nongrowing season and CO2 uptake of 2,330 Tg C during the growing season, respectively. Air temperature and precipitation exert the most control over the net ecosystem exchange in the nongrowing season, while leaf area index plays a more important role in the growing season. This region will probably shift to a carbon source after 2,057 under SSP5-8.5, with a net emission of 17 Pg C during 2057–2100. The net economic benefits of CO2 budget will be $4.5, $5.0, and $2.9 trillion under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Our results imply that a high-emission pathway will greatly reduce the economic benefit of carbon assimilation in northern permafrost regions.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara, et al.
(författare)
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Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 15:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains similar to 560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170-740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10-110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2-34) and 38 (13-110) megatons C yr(-1), respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO(2)e) by 2100 (14-110) and 190 Gt CO(2)e by 2300 (45-590), with similar to 30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.
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| 4. |
- Schuster, Paul F., et al.
(författare)
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Permafrost Stores a Globally Significant Amount of Mercury
- 2018
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 45:3, s. 1463-1471
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Changing climate in northern regions is causing permafrost to thaw with major implications for the global mercury (Hg) cycle. We estimated Hg in permafrost regions based on in situ measurements of sediment total mercury (STHg), soil organic carbon (SOC), and the Hg to carbon ratio (R-HgC) combined with maps of soil carbon. We measured a median STHg of 43 +/- 30 ng Hg g soil(-1) and a median R-HgC of 1.6 +/- 0.9 mu g Hg g C-1, consistent with published results of STHg for tundra soils and 11,000 measurements from 4,926 temperate, nonpermafrost sites in North America and Eurasia. We estimate that the Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions contain 1,656 +/- 962 Gg Hg, of which 793 +/- 461 Gg Hg is frozen in permafrost. Permafrost soils store nearly twice as much Hg as all other soils, the ocean, and the atmosphere combined, and this Hg is vulnerable to release as permafrost thaws over the next century. Existing estimates greatly underestimate Hg in permafrost soils, indicating a need to reevaluate the role of the Arctic regions in the global Hg cycle.
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| 5. |
- Wu, Tonghua, et al.
(författare)
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Storage, patterns, and environmental controls of soil organic carbon stocks in the permafrost regions of the Northern Hemisphere
- 2022
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697. ; 828
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Large stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulated in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions may be vulnerable to climatic warming, but global estimates of SOC distribution and magnitude in permafrost regions still have large uncertainties. Based on multiple high-resolution environmental variables and a compiled soil sample dataset (>3000 soil profiles), we used machine-learning methods to estimate the size and spatial distribution of SOC for the top 3 m soils in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions. We also identified key environmental predictors of SOC. The results showed that the SOC storage for the top 3 m soil was 1079 ± 174 Pg C across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions (20.8 × 106 km2), including 1057 ± 167 Pg C in the northern permafrost regions and 22 ± 7 Pg C in the Third Pole permafrost regions. The mean annual air temperature and NDVI are the main controlling factors for the spatial distribution of SOC stocks in the northern and the Third Pole permafrost regions. Our estimations were more accurate than the existing global SOC stock maps. The results improve our understanding of the regional and global permafrost carbon cycle and their feedback to the climate system.
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