| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 3. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 4. |
- Botvinik-Nezer, Rotem, et al.
(författare)
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Variability in the analysis of a single neuroimaging dataset by many teams
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 582, s. 84-88
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. Here we assess the effect of this flexibility on the results of functional magnetic resonance imaging by asking 70 independent teams to analyse the same dataset, testing the same 9 ex-ante hypotheses(1). The flexibility of analytical approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyse the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in the results of hypothesis tests, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of the analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Notably, a meta-analytical approach that aggregated information across teams yielded a significant consensus in activated regions. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset(2-5). Our findings show that analytical flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and identify factors that may be related to variability in the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for performing and reporting multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches that could be used to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed. The results obtained by seventy different teams analysing the same functional magnetic resonance imaging dataset show substantial variation, highlighting the influence of analytical choices and the importance of sharing workflows publicly and performing multiple analyses.
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| 5. |
- Carter, Richard I., et al.
(författare)
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The fibrinogen cleavage product A alpha-Val(360), a specific marker of neutrophil elastase activity in vivo
- 2011
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Ingår i: Thorax. - : BMJ. - 1468-3296 .- 0040-6376. ; 66:8, s. 686-691
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Alpha-1-antitrypsin (A1AT) deficiency is the only recognised genetic risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Since A1AT is the major inhibitor of neutrophil elastase (NE), this enzyme has become widely implicated in the pathogenesis of COPD in general; however, there is currently no specific biomarker for its pre-inhibition activity. Such a biomarker should be a measure of elastase-specific COPD disease activity with the potential to assess early targeted therapeutic intervention, in contrast to traditional and non-specific disease severity markers such as forced expiratory volume in 1 s. Methods In pilot studies, plasma A alpha-Val(360) and markers of neutrophil activation were measured in 95 subjects with a range of A1AT concentrations. A alpha-Val(360) and sputum elastase activity were also measured in a further seven PiZ A1AT-deficient subjects over the course of an acute exacerbation. Finally, A alpha-Val(360) was measured in plasma from subjects randomised to receive A1AT replacement or placebo in the EXACTLE trial. Results The plasma concentrations of A alpha-Val(360) and A1AT related exponentially, consistent with previous theoretical and in vitro experimental data. L-233 (an intracellular NE inhibitor) blocked generation of A alpha-Val(360) and subsequent A1AT/NE complex formation. A alpha-Val(360) was related to the spirometric severity of lung disease in A1AT deficiency, to sputum elastase activity in acute exacerbations and was decreased in subjects receiving A1AT replacement therapy (while remaining constant in those receiving placebo). Conclusions A alpha-Val(360) represents the first specific footprint of pre-inhibition NE activity and is a potential biomarker of disease activity and progression in subjects with elastase-dependent COPD.
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| 6. |
- Lark, Michael W., et al.
(författare)
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Aggrecan degradation in human cartilage : Evidence for both matrix metalloproteinase and aggrecanase activity in normal, osteoarthritic, and rheumatoid joints
- 1997
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Investigation. - 0021-9738. ; 100:1, s. 93-106
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To examine the activity of matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and aggrecanase in control and diseased human articular cartilage, metabolic fragments of aggrecan were detected with monospecific antipeptide antibodies. The distribution and quantity of MMP-generated aggrecan G1 fragments terminating in VDIPEN341 were compared with the distribution of aggrecanase-generated G1 fragments terminating in NITEGE373. Both types of G1 fragments were isolated from osteoarthritic cartilage. The sizes were consistent with a single enzymatic cleavage in the interglobular domain region, with no further proteolytic processing of these fragments. Both neoepitopes were also detected by immunohistochemistry in articular cartilage from patients undergoing joint replacement for osteoarthritis (OA), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and in cartilage from adults with no known joint disease. In control specimens, the staining intensity for both G1 fragments increased with age, with little staining in cartilage from 22-wk-old fetal samples. There was also an increase with age in the extracted amount of MMP- generated neoepitope in relation to both aggrecan and collagen content, confirming the immunohistochemical results. After the age of 20-30 yr this relationship remained at a steady state. The staining for the MMP-generated epitope was most marked in control cartilage exhibiting histological signs of damage, whereas intense staining for the aggrecanase-generated fragment was often noted in adult cartilage lacking overt histological damage. Intense staining for both neoepitopes appeared in the more severely fibrillated, superficial region of the tissue. Intense immunostaining for both VDIPEN- and NITEGE-neoepitopes was also detected in joint cartilage from patients with OA or RA. Cartilage in these specimens was significantly more degraded and high levels of staining for both epitopes was always seen in areas with extensive cartilage damage. The levels of extracted VDIPEN neoepitope relative to collagen or aggrecan in both OA and RA samples were similar to those seen in age-matched control specimens. Immunostaining for both types of aggrecan fragments was seen surrounding the cells but also further removed in the interterritorial matrix. In some regions of the tissue, both neoepitopes were found while in others only one was detected. Thus, generation and/or turnover of these specific catabolic aggrecan fragments is not necessarily coordinated. Our results are consistent with the presence in both normal and arthritic joint cartilage of proteolytic activity against aggrecan based on both classical MMPs and 'aggrecanase'.
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| 7. |
- Engert, Andreas, et al.
(författare)
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The European Hematology Association Roadmap for European Hematology Research : a consensus document
- 2016
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Ingår i: Haematologica. - Pavia, Italy : Ferrata Storti Foundation (Haematologica). - 0390-6078 .- 1592-8721. ; 101:2, s. 115-208
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The European Hematology Association (EHA) Roadmap for European Hematology Research highlights major achievements in diagnosis and treatment of blood disorders and identifies the greatest unmet clinical and scientific needs in those areas to enable better funded, more focused European hematology research. Initiated by the EHA, around 300 experts contributed to the consensus document, which will help European policy makers, research funders, research organizations, researchers, and patient groups make better informed decisions on hematology research. It also aims to raise public awareness of the burden of blood disorders on European society, which purely in economic terms is estimated at (sic)23 billion per year, a level of cost that is not matched in current European hematology research funding. In recent decades, hematology research has improved our fundamental understanding of the biology of blood disorders, and has improved diagnostics and treatments, sometimes in revolutionary ways. This progress highlights the potential of focused basic research programs such as this EHA Roadmap. The EHA Roadmap identifies nine 'sections' in hematology: normal hematopoiesis, malignant lymphoid and myeloid diseases, anemias and related diseases, platelet disorders, blood coagulation and hemostatic disorders, transfusion medicine, infections in hematology, and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. These sections span 60 smaller groups of diseases or disorders. The EHA Roadmap identifies priorities and needs across the field of hematology, including those to develop targeted therapies based on genomic profiling and chemical biology, to eradicate minimal residual malignant disease, and to develop cellular immunotherapies, combination treatments, gene therapies, hematopoietic stem cell treatments, and treatments that are better tolerated by elderly patients.
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| 8. |
- Yeung, Edwina, et al.
(författare)
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Maternal age is related to offspring DNA methylation : a meta-analysis of results from the pace consortium
- 2024
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Ingår i: Aging Cell. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1474-9718 .- 1474-9726.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Worldwide trends to delay childbearing have increased parental ages at birth. Older parental age may harm offspring health, but mechanisms remain unclear. Alterations in offspring DNA methylation (DNAm) patterns could play a role as aging has been associated with methylation changes in gametes of older individuals. We meta-analyzed epigenome-wide associations of parental age with offspring blood DNAm of over 9500 newborns and 2000 children (5–10 years old) from the Pregnancy and Childhood Epigenetics consortium. In newborns, we identified 33 CpG sites in 13 loci with DNAm associated with maternal age (PFDR < 0.05). Eight of these CpGs were located near/in the MTNR1B gene, coding for a melatonin receptor. Regional analysis identified them together as a differentially methylated region consisting of 9 CpGs in/near MTNR1B, at which higher DNAm was associated with greater maternal age (PFDR = 6.92 × 10−8) in newborns. In childhood blood samples, these differences in blood DNAm of MTNR1B CpGs were nominally significant (p < 0.05) and retained the same positive direction, suggesting persistence of associations. Maternal age was also positively associated with higher DNA methylation at three CpGs in RTEL1-TNFRSF6B at birth (PFDR < 0.05) and nominally in childhood (p < 0.0001). Of the remaining 10 CpGs also persistent in childhood, methylation at cg26709300 in YPEL3/BOLA2B in external data was associated with expression of ITGAL, an immune regulator. While further study is needed to establish causality, particularly due to the small effect sizes observed, our results potentially support offspring DNAm as a mechanism underlying associations of maternal age with child health.
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