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- Kariuki, Rebecca W., et al.
(författare)
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Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania
- 2021
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 16:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.
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| 2. |
- Kariuki, Rebecca W., et al.
(författare)
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Serengeti's futures : Exploring land use and land cover change scenarios to craft pathways for meeting conservation and development goals
- 2022
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Conservation Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2673-611X. ; 3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rapid land use transformations and increased climatic uncertainties challenge potential sustainable development pathways for communities and wildlife in regions with strong economic reliance on natural resources. In response to the complex causes and consequences of land use change, participatory scenario development approaches have emerged as key tools for analyzing drivers of change to help chart the future of socio-ecological systems. We assess stakeholder perspectives of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and integrate co-produced scenarios of future land cover change with spatial modeling to evaluate how future LULCC in the wider Serengeti ecosystem might align or diverge with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union's Agenda 2063. Across the wider Serengeti ecosystem, population growth, infrastructural development, agricultural economy, and political will in support of climate change management strategies were perceived to be the key drivers of future LULCC. Under eight scenarios, declines in forest area as a proportion of total land area ranged from 0.1% to 4% in 2030 and from 0.1% to 6% in 2063, with the preservation of forest cover linked to the level of protection provided. Futures with well-demarcated protected areas, sound land use plans, and stable governance were highly desired. In contrast, futures with severe climate change impacts and encroached and degazetted protected areas were considered undesirable. Insights gained from our study are important for guiding pathways toward achieving sustainability goals while recognizing societies' relationship with nature. The results highlight the usefulness of multi-stakeholder engagement, perspective sharing, and consensus building toward shared socio-ecological goals.
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| 3. |
- Mmbaga, Naza E., et al.
(författare)
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Cropping patterns along an altitudinal gradient and their implications to wildlife conservation in Rombo, Tanzania
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Conservation. - : Elsevier BV. - 2351-9894. ; 28
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ecosystem and livelihood sustainability of small-scale farmers in Eastern Africa are often challenged by climate change and unsustainable land use practices. Little is known on the small-scale temporal processes of cropping systems in relation to long-term climatic conditions. To understand the climatic influence on the cropping patterns, and its implications to wildlife/elephant conservation, our study used a combination of time-series datasets on crop and climate as well as geo-spatial layers spanning more than three decades. To validate the information analyzed from secondary data, we carried out participatory observation and interviews, whereby about 5% of village households were selected along an altitudinal gradient of Rombo area, Tanzania. We generated land use change maps using Geographical Information System (ArcGIS 10.4) and used Spearman's correlation analysis to assess the influence of rainfall, temperature, and crop yield on the observed longitudinal changes in the crop types and other land use patterns both within and across altitudinal gradients. We found that perennial crops like coffee and banana concentrated in upper agro-ecological zones, with a clear division line above 1230 masl while seasonal crops like maize and beans were mostly cultivated in lowlands (below 1230 masl). The results further showed that coffee yields significantly declined with higher average annual minimum temperatures over the last 16 years. Within the same time period, there was a disproportionate shift from coffee to seasonal crop cultivation such as maize and beans. Elephant numbers declined by about 38%, while human settlement area increased by 28% over the last 30 years. We conclude that changes in land use and shifts in climate and cropping patterns have important implications for elephant conservation and sustainability of the ecosystem in Rombo area, Tanzania.
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