| 1. |
- Kanai, M, et al.
(författare)
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- 2023
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Abdul-Sattar, Nizami, 1982, et al.
(författare)
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Comparative analysis using EIA for developed and developing coutnries case studies of hydroelectric power plants in Pakistan, Norway and Sweden
- 2011
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Ingår i: International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1745-2627 .- 1350-4509. ; 18:2, s. 134-142
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is an important legislative and scientific tool that may assist and improve the quality assistance for the decision-making process in sustainable development. Here, a comparison of EIAs from three cases of hydropower projects in Pakistan, Norway and Sweden is reported. A huge difference concerning the incorporation of environmental considerations into the decisionmaking process between developed and developing countries is observed. The EIA system of Pakistan appears to be less efficient in the application and review process. In addition, the appraisal of issues, the decision-making process and evaluation through post-monitoring is not as well performed in Pakistan as in cases of hydroelectric power plants in Sweden and Norway. The key reason for this shortcoming is misconceptions about the EIA process, which initially receives intense attention but becomes weakened by the time of implementation. This implies that there is a need to adopt simplified and flexible EIA techniques suitable for the infrastructure and resources of a specific country, taking into account institutional, technical and financial constraints. Improvements are required in public participation, awareness, as well as in environmental control and data system sectors in Pakistan, besides simply enacting legislation to achieve the goals of the EIA system.
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| 4. |
- Ammenberg, Jonas, 1973-, et al.
(författare)
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Perspectives on biomethane as a transport fuel within acircular economy, energy, and environmental system
- 2021
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The literature indicates that the life cycle costs of biomethane fueled light vehicles may be 15 to 20% highe rthan for similar petrol and diesel fueled vehicles, while liquid biomethane fueled heavy duty trucks may have similar life cycle costs to diesel. However, such an analysis can be two dimensional and limited in the message it conveys. On one hand the acceptance of diesel fueled trucks and buses will be limited due to the climate emergency and air pollution and after 2030 diesel may not be the competition for biomethane anymore. On the otherhand, biomethane production is part of a larger circular economy, energy, and environmental system. It is verydifficult to divorce the energy vector, biomethane, from the system through which it is produced. In essence biomethane can be considered as one of the products or services of a broad biogas system.An advantage of biogas is that it can be produced from most wet organic wastes or by-products, includingfor food waste, animal by-products, (such as manure), agricultural residues, sewage sludge, industrial biowaste (such as from slaughterhouses and food and beverage processing industries). Biogas production is an element in the environmental management of such wastes; biogas plants can also deliver digestate, which contains most ofthe nutrients in the feedstock and can be an excellent biofertilizer. In addition, it is possible to utilize the carbon dioxide removed in upgrading biogas to biomethane as a product with added value. The resource of biomethane is very significant in considering the vast amounts of organic wastes landfilled around the world each year, that instead could be used to produce biogas, biofertilizers and food grade CO2 while improving the environment through reduced fugitive methane emissions and improved water quality. Furthermore, the application of biogas systems in bio-industrial contexts (such as paper mills, food production facilities, or other types of biorefineries) has huge potential to decarbonize industry while significantly increasing the resource of biomethane. Due to the multifunctionality of biomethane solutions, broad assessment methods are needed to grasp thewide spectrum of relevant factors when comparing different technologies:• Biomethane has a competitive performance compared with fossil fuels and other biofuels on a whole lifecycle analysis and is particularly suited to long distance heavy vehicles.• Biomethane from manure, residues, waste & catch crops is estimated to have low GHG emissions ascompared to other renewable fuels.• Biomethane may contribute to reduced air pollution in comparison with diesel, petrol, and other biofuels.• Biomethane can contribute to a substantial reduction in acidification compared with fossil fuels.• Biomethane may contribute to significantly reduced noise levels in comparison with diesel heavy goodsvehicles.• Well-designed and applied biogas systems may be essential to transform conventional farming to moresustainable farming and to organic farming.• Common types of biogas solutions provide essential sociotechnical systems services as components ofsystems for waste and (waste) water management.• Biogas solutions may importantly contribute to improved energy supply/security and flexibility.Natural gas systems should be a facilitator of the introduction of biomethane for transport, but the sustainability problems associated with natural gas negatively impact the view of biomethane. This is where arguments amongst the renewable sector actors can hinder progress. Biomethane and (power to methane) can utilize the existing gas grid and accelerate progress to decarbonization of the overall energy sector beyond just electricity and also to decarbonize chemical (such as ammonia and methanol) and steel production. This should be advantageous especially when realizing that more energy is procured from the natural gas grid than the electricity gridin the EU and the US; however, suggestions that biomethane is only greenwashing the natural gas industry, and in doing so extending the lifetime of natural gas, greatly impedes this progress.This report provides exemplars of very good biomethane based transport solutions, with a high technologicalreadiness level for all elements of the chain from production to vehicles. Transport biomethane sits well in the broad circular economy, energy, and environmental system providing services across a range of sectors including reduction in fugitive methane emissions from slurries, treatment of residues, environmental protection, provision of biofertiliser, provision of food grade CO2 and a fuel readily available for long distance heavy haulage. What we do not have is time to postpone the sustainable implementation of such circular economy biomethane systems as the climate emergency will not wait for absolutely perfect zero emission solutions; should they exist.
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| 5. |
- Gustafsson, Marcus, 1987-, et al.
(författare)
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IEA Bioenergy Task 37 – Country Reports Summaries 2019
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This publication contains a compilation of summaries of country reports from members of IEA Bioenergy Task 37 (Energy from Biogas).Each country report summary includes information on the number of biogas plants in operation, biogas production data, how the biogas is utilised, the number of biogas upgrading plants, the number of vehicles using biomethane as fuel, the number of biomethane filling stations, details of financial support schemes in each country and some information on national biogas projects and production facilities. The publication is an annual update and is valid for information collected in 2019. Reference year for production and utilisation is as a rule 2018.
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| 6. |
- Lindfors, Axel, 1993-
(författare)
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In what way is it sustainable? : Developing a multi-criteria method for sustainability assessment of socio-technical systems
- 2022
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Due to increasing environmental degradation, decreasing resource stocks, and growing inequality there is an urgent need for sustainable development. Many of these societal challenges are interlinked and interconnected and sustainable development represents a multi-dimensional and integrative concept to overcome them. To achieve sustainable development, system changes and the implementation of new technologies will be necessary— technologies that contribute toward solving several sustainability challenges in an integrated manner. The identification and implementation of more sustainable sociotechnical systems will require assessment methods that can encompass the meaning of sustainable development. Sustainable development is a dynamic and relative concept where what constitutes sustainability changes depending on the temporal, cultural, and technical context in which the system is introduced and on the reference used for comparison. Because of this, it is impossible to define specific technologies as universally sustainable; instead, each technology must be assessed concerning how the socio-technical systems that encompasses the technology contributes toward overcoming sustainability challenges in the context in which it is implemented. This assessment requires a method capable of encompassing the complexity, context-dependency, and value pluralism of sustainable development. In addition, the assessment method should contribute to the implementation of the most sustainable alternative to accelerate the societal transformation to sustainable development. Based on this, the thesis aimed to develop a method for sustainability assessment that could encompass the complexity, context-dependency, and value pluralism of sustainable development and which includes features that explicitly aim to facilitate the implementation of the most sustainable alternative(s). The method developed in the thesis is based on participatory multicriteria assessment. It differs from other participatory multi-criteria assessments in several ways because of its theoretical basis in soft system thinking and value pluralism. These theories have several implications for the assessment method. Some examples include: that quantitative relations between sustainability challenges in different moral value domains cannot be constructed, that there is no rigorous or dependable way to find the most sustainable alternative, and that multiple alternatives can be viewed as the most sustainable alternative because this is dependent on the values and norms of the decisionmakers. The sustainability assessment method developed in the thesis is a sixstep iterative method. The method is flexible and need not be strictly adhered to; instead, it should be adapted to the decision context it is used within. It provides decision-makers with a systematic overview of knowledge on how different relevant alternatives contribute to, or counteract, overcoming various sustainability challenges. This enables informed and rational decision-making concerning what alternatives are perceived as the most sustainable and, therefore, should be implemented. This implementation process is one that the assessment method contributes toward by, for example, including criteria for assessing feasibility in the assessment framework and recommending what type of actors to involve in the assessment process. The method builds on the idea that the purpose of sustainability assessments can never be to state if a system is sustainable or not; rather, the purpose is to state in what way a system is sustainable or not.
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