| 1. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
-
Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
|
|
| 2. |
- Kvarven, Amanda, et al.
(författare)
-
The intuitive cooperation hypothesis revisited : a meta-analytic examination of effect size and between-study heterogeneity
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Journal of the Economic Science Association (JESA). - : Springer. - 2199-6776 .- 2199-6784. ; 6:1, s. 26-42
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The hypothesis that intuition promotes cooperation has attracted considerable attention. Although key results in this literature have failed to replicate in pre-registered studies, recent meta-analyses report an overall effect of intuition on cooperation. We address the question with a meta-analysis of 82 cooperation experiments, spanning four different types of intuition manipulations-time pressure, cognitive load, depletion, and induction-including 29,315 participants in total. We obtain a positive overall effect of intuition on cooperation, though substantially weaker than that reported in prior meta-analyses, and between studies the effect exhibits a high degree of systematic variation. We find that this overall effect depends exclusively on the inclusion of six experiments featuring emotion-induction manipulations, which prompt participants to rely on emotion over reason when making allocation decisions. Upon excluding from the total data set experiments featuring this class of manipulations, between-study variation in the meta-analysis is reduced substantially-and we observed no statistically discernable effect of intuition on cooperation. Overall, we fail to obtain compelling evidence for the intuitive cooperation hypothesis.
|
|
| 3. |
- Martinsson, Peter, 1969, et al.
(författare)
-
Conditional Cooperation: Evidence for the Role of Self-Control
- 2010
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- When facing the opportunity to allocate resources between oneself and others, individuals may experience a self-control conflict between urges to act selfishly and preferences to act pro-socially. We explore the domain of conditional cooperation, and we test the hypothesis that increased expectations about others’ average contribution increases own contributions to public goods more when self-control is high than when it is low. We pair a subtle framing technique with a public goods experiment. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that conditionally cooperative behavior is stronger (i.e., less imperfect) when expectations of high contributions are accompanied by high levels of self-control.
|
|
| 4. |
- Martinsson, Peter, 1969, et al.
(författare)
-
Reconciling Pro-Social vs. Selfish Behavior - Evidence for the Role of Self-Control
- 2010
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We test the proposition that individuals may experience a self-control conflict between short-term temptation to be selfish and better judgment to act pro-socially. Using a dictator game and a public goods game, we manipulated the likelihood that individuals identified self-control conflict, and we measured their trait ability to implement self-control strategies. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that trait self-control exhibits a positive and significant correlation with pro-social behavior in the treatment that raises likelihood of conflict identification, but not in the treatment that reduces likelihood of conflict identification.
|
|
| 5. |
- Myrseth, Kristian Ove R, et al.
(författare)
-
Cognitive foundations of cooperation revisited: Commentary on Rand et al. (2012, 2014)
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-8043 .- 2214-8051. ; 69, s. 133-138
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2017.We show that Rand et al. (2012, 2014)-who argue that cooperation is intuitive-provide an incorrect interpretation of their own data. They make the mistake of inferring intuition from relative decision times alone, without taking into account absolute decision times. We re-examine their data and find that the vast majority of their responses are slow, exceeding four seconds, even in time-pressure treatments intended to promote intuitive responses. Further, a plot of the average cooperation rates by decision time fails to yield a monotonically decreasing relationship. However, among the few decisions that were relatively fast, there appears to be a positive-not negative-association between decision time and cooperation. We conclude that the data presented by Rand et al. (2012, 2014) fail to provide evidence for the hypothesis that cooperation is intuitive. If anything, their data indicate the opposite.
|
|
| 6. |
- Myrseth, Kristian Ove R., et al.
(författare)
-
Intuitive cooperation refuted: Commentary on Rand et al. (2012) and Rand et al. (2014)
- 2015
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We show that Rand et al. (2012) and Rand et al. (2014)—who argue that cooperation is intuitive—provide an incorrect interpretation of their own data. They make the mistake of inferring intuition from relative decision times alone, without taking into account absolute decision times. We re-examine their data and find that the vast majority of their responses are slow, exceeding four seconds, even in time-pressure treatments intended to promote intuitive responses. Further, a plot of the average cooperation rates by decision time presents no clear relationship between decision time and cooperation. However, among the few decisions that were relatively fast (less than four seconds), there appears to be a positive—not negative—correlation between decision time and cooperation. We conclude that the data presented by Rand et al. (2012) and Rand et al. (2014) fail to provide evidence for the hypothesis that cooperation is intuitive. If anything, their data indicate the opposite.
|
|
| 7. |
|
|
| 8. |
- Myrseth, Kristian Ove R., et al.
(författare)
-
Tangible temptation in the social dilemma: Cash, cooperation, and self-control
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Journal of Neuroscience, Psychology, and Economics. - : American Psychological Association (APA). - 1937-321X .- 2151-318X. ; 8, s. 61-77
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2015 American Psychological Association. The social dilemma may involve a within-person conflict, between urges to act selfishly and better judgment to cooperate. Examining the proposition from the perspective of temptation, we pair the public good game with treatments that vary the degree to which money is abstract (numbers on-screen) or tangible (tokens or cash). We also include psychometric measures of self-control and impulsivity. Consistent with our hypothesis, we found in the treatments that render money more tangible a stronger positive association between cooperation and self-control and a stronger negative association between cooperation and impulsivity. Our results show that the representation of the endowment in the public good game matters for the role of self-control and, hence, cooperation.
|
|
| 9. |
- Wollbrant, Conny, 1981, et al.
(författare)
-
Commentary: Fairness is intuitive
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Frontiers in Psychology. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1664-1078. ; 7:654
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
|
|
