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- Luquiens, Amandine, et al.
(författare)
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Pictograms to aid laypeople in identifying the addictiveness of gambling products (PictoGRRed study)
- 2022
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The structural addictive characteristics of gambling products are important targets for prevention, but can be unintuitive to laypeople. In the PictoGRRed (Pictograms for Gambling Risk Reduction) study, we aimed to develop pictograms that illustrate the main addictive characteristics of gambling products and to assess their impact on identifying the addictiveness of gambling products by laypeople. We conducted a three-step study: (1) use of a Delphi consensus method among 56 experts from 13 countries to reach a consensus on the 10 structural addictive characteristics of gambling products to be illustrated by pictograms and their associated definitions, (2) development of 10 pictograms and their definitions, and (3) study in the general population to assess the impact of exposure to the pictograms and their definitions (n = 900). French-speaking experts from the panel assessed the addictiveness of gambling products (n = 25), in which the mean of expert’s ratings was considered as the true value. Participants were randomly provided with the pictograms and their definitions, or with a standard slogan, or with neither (control group). We considered the control group as representing the baseline ability of laypeople to assess the addictiveness of gambling products. Each group and the French-speaking experts rated the addictiveness of 14 gambling products. The judgment criterion was the intraclass coefficients (ICCs) between the mean ratings of each group and the experts, reflecting the level of agreement between each group and the experts. Exposure to the pictograms and their definition doubled the ability of laypeople to assess the addictiveness of gambling products compared with that of the group that read a slogan or the control group (ICC = 0.28 vs. 0.14 (Slogan) and 0.14 (Control)). Laypeople have limited awareness of the addictive characteristics of gambling products. The pictograms developed herein represent an innovative tool for universally empowering prevention and for selective prevention.
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| 2. |
- Zhu, Jian-Qiao, et al.
(författare)
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Clarifying the relationship between coherence and accuracy in probability judgments
- 2022
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Ingår i: Cognition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0010-0277 .- 1873-7838. ; 223
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Bayesian approaches presuppose that following the coherence conditions of probability theory makes probabilistic judgments more accurate. But other influential theories claim accurate judgments (with high "ecological rationality") do not need to be coherent. Empirical results support these latter theories, threatening Bayesian models of intelligence; and suggesting, moreover, that "heuristics and biases" research, which focuses on violations of coherence, is largely irrelevant. We carry out a higher-power experiment involving poker probability judgments (and a formally analogous urn task), with groups of poker novices, occasional poker players, and poker experts, finding a positive relationship between coherence and accuracy both between groups and across individuals. Both the positive relationship in our data, and past null results, are captured by a sample-based Bayesian approximation model, where a person's accuracy and coherence both increase with the number of samples drawn. Thus, we reconcile the theoretical link between accuracy and coherence with apparently negative empirical results.
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