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- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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2. |
- Abe, K., et al.
(författare)
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J-PARC Neutrino Beamline Upgrade Technical Design Report
- 2019
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Rapport (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this document, technical details of the upgrade plan of the J-PARC neutrino beamline for the extension of the T2K experiment are described. T2K has proposed to accumulate data corresponding to 2×1022 protons-on-target in the next decade, aiming at an initial observation of CP violation with 3σ or higher significance in the case of maximal CP violation. Methods to increase the neutrino beam intensity, which are necessary to achieve the proposed data increase, are described.
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4. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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5. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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- Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M., et al.
(författare)
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Civil Aircraft for the regular investigation of the atmosphere based on an instrumented container: The new CARIBIC system
- 2007
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - 1680-7324. ; 7:18, s. 4953-4976
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An airfreight container with automated instruments for measurement of atmospheric gases and trace compounds was operated on a monthly basis onboard a Boeing 767-300 ER of LTU International Airways during long-distance flights from 1997 to 2002 (CARIBIC, Civil Aircraft for Regular Investigation of the Atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container, http://www.caribic-atmospheric.com). Subsequently a more advanced system has been developed, using a larger capacity container with additional equipment and an improved inlet system. CARIBIC phase #2 was implemented on a new long-range aircraft type Airbus A340-600 of the Lufthansa German Airlines (Star Alliance) in December 2004, creating a powerful flying observatory. The instrument package comprises detectors for the measurement of O-3, total and gaseous H2O, NO and NOy, CO, CO2, O-2, Hg, and number concentrations of sub-micrometer particles (>4 nm, >12 nm, and >18 nm diameter). Furthermore, an optical particle counter (OPC) and a proton transfer mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) are incorporated. Aerosol samples are collected for analysis of elemental composition and particle morphology after flight. Air samples are taken in glass containers for laboratory analyses of hydrocarbons, halocarbons and greenhouse gases (including isotopic composition of CO2) in several laboratories. Absorption tubes collect oxygenated volatile organic compounds. Three differential optical absorption spectrometers (DOAS) with their telescopes mounted in the inlet system measure atmospheric trace gases such as BrO, HONO, and NO2. A video camera mounted in the inlet provides information about clouds along the flight track. The flying observatory, its equipment and examples of measurement results are reported.
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- Arzoumanian, Doris, et al.
(författare)
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Dust polarized emission observations of NGC 6334: BISTRO reveals the details of the complex but organized magnetic field structure of the high-mass star-forming hub-filament network
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 647
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Molecular filaments and hubs have received special attention recently thanks to new studies showing their key role in star formation. While the (column) density and velocity structures of both filaments and hubs have been carefully studied, their magnetic field (B-field) properties have yet to be characterized. Consequently, the role of B-fields in the formation and evolution of hub-filament systems is not well constrained. Aims. We aim to understand the role of the B-field and its interplay with turbulence and gravity in the dynamical evolution of the NGC 6334 filament network that harbours cluster-forming hubs and high-mass star formation. Methods. We present new observations of the dust polarized emission at 850 μm toward the 2 pc × 10 pc map of NGC 6334 at a spatial resolution of 0.09 pc obtained with the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) as part of the B-field In STar-forming Region Observations (BISTRO) survey. We study the distribution and dispersion of the polarized intensity (PI), the polarization fraction (PF), and the plane-of-The-sky B-field angle (χB_POS) toward the whole region, along the 10 pc-long ridge and along the sub-filaments connected to the ridge and the hubs. We derived the power spectra of the intensity and χBPOS along the ridge crest and compared them with the results obtained from simulated filaments. Results. The observations span 3 orders of magnitude in Stokes I and PI and 2 orders of magnitude in PF (from 0.2 to 20%). A large scatter in PI and PF is observed for a given value of I. Our analyses show a complex B-field structure when observed over the whole region ( 10 pc); however, at smaller scales (1 pc), χBPOS varies coherently along the crests of the filament network. The observed power spectrum of χBPOS can be well represented with a power law function with a slope of-1.33 ± 0.23, which is 20% shallower than that of I. We find that this result is compatible with the properties of simulated filaments and may indicate the physical processes at play in the formation and evolution of star-forming filaments. Along the sub-filaments, χBPOS rotates frombeing mostly perpendicular or randomly oriented with respect to the crests to mostly parallel as the sub-filaments merge with the ridge and hubs. This variation of the B-field structure along the sub-filaments may be tracing local velocity flows of infalling matter in the ridge and hubs. Our analysis also suggests a variation in the energy balance along the crests of these sub-filaments, from magnetically critical or supercritical at their far ends to magnetically subcritical near the ridge and hubs. We also detect an increase in PF toward the high-column density (NH2 â 1023 cm-2) star cluster-forming hubs. These latter large PF values may be explained by the increase in grain alignment efficiency due to stellar radiation from the newborn stars, combined with an ordered B-field structure. Conclusions. These observational results reveal for the first time the characteristics of the small-scale (down to 0.1 pc) B-field structure of a 10 pc-long hub-filament system. Our analyses show variations in the polarization properties along the sub-filaments that may be tracing the evolution of their physical properties during their interaction with the ridge and hubs. We also detect an impact of feedback from young high-mass stars on the local B-field structure and the polarization properties, which could put constraints on possible models for dust grain alignment and provide important hints as to the interplay between the star formation activity and interstellar B-fields.
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8. |
- Zhou, Bin, et al.
(författare)
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Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
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9. |
- Eswaraiah, Chakali, et al.
(författare)
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The JCMT BISTRO Survey: Revealing the Diverse Magnetic Field Morphologies in Taurus Dense Cores with Sensitive Submillimeter Polarimetry
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 912:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We have obtained sensitive dust continuum polarization observations at 850 μm in the B213 region of Taurus using POL-2 on SCUBA-2 at the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope as part of the B-fields in STar-forming Region Observations (BISTRO) survey. These observations allow us to probe magnetic field (B-field) at high spatial resolution (∼2000 au or ∼0.01 pc at 140 pc) in two protostellar cores (K04166 and K04169) and one prestellar core (Miz-8b) that lie within the B213 filament. Using the Davis-Chandrasekhar-Fermi method, we estimate the B-field strengths in K04166, K04169, and Miz-8b to be 38 ± 14, 44 ± 16, and 12 ± 5 μG, respectively. These cores show distinct mean B-field orientations. The B-field in K04166 is well ordered and aligned parallel to the orientations of the core minor axis, outflows, core rotation axis, and large-scale uniform B-field, in accordance with magnetically regulated star formation via ambipolar diffusion taking place in K04166. The B-field in K04169 is found to be ordered but oriented nearly perpendicular to the core minor axis and large-scale B-field and not well correlated with other axes. In contrast, Miz-8b exhibits a disordered B-field that shows no preferred alignment with the core minor axis or large-scale field. We found that only one core, K04166, retains a memory of the large-scale uniform B-field. The other two cores, K04169 and Miz-8b, are decoupled from the large-scale field. Such a complex B-field configuration could be caused by gas inflow onto the filament, even in the presence of a substantial magnetic flux.
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10. |
- Tran, Dien M., et al.
(författare)
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High prevalence of colonisation with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae among patients admitted to Vietnamese hospitals : Risk factors and burden of disease
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Infection. - : Saunders Elsevier. - 0163-4453 .- 1532-2742. ; 79:2, s. 115-122
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundCarbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) is an increasing problem worldwide, but particularly problematic in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) due to limitations of resources for surveillance of CRE and infection prevention and control (IPC).MethodsA point prevalence survey (PPS) with screening for colonisation with CRE was conducted on 2233 patients admitted to neonatal, paediatric and adult care at 12 Vietnamese hospitals located in northern, central and southern Vietnam during 2017 and 2018. CRE colonisation was determined by culturing of faecal specimens on selective agar for CRE. Risk factors for CRE colonisation were evaluated. A CRE admission and discharge screening sub-study was conducted among one of the most vulnerable patient groups; infants treated at an 80-bed Neonatal ICU from March throughout June 2017 to assess CRE acquisition, hospital-acquired infection (HAI) and treatment outcome.ResultsA total of 1165 (52%) patients were colonised with CRE, most commonly Klebsiella pneumoniae (n=805), Escherichia coli (n=682) and Enterobacter spp. (n=61). Duration of hospital stay, HAI and treatment with a carbapenem were independent risk factors for CRE colonisation. The PPS showed that the prevalence of CRE colonisation increased on average 4.2 % per day and mean CRE colonisation rates increased from 13% on the day of admission to 89% at day 15 of hospital stay. At the NICU CRE colonisation increased from 32% at admission to 87% at discharge, mortality was significantly associated (OR 5•5, P < 0•01) with CRE colonisation and HAI on admission.ConclusionThese data indicate that there is an epidemic spread of CRE in Vietnamese hospitals with rapid transmission to hospitalised patients.
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