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- Zumla, A, et al.
(författare)
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Towards host-directed therapies for tuberculosis
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature reviews. Drug discovery. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1474-1784 .- 1474-1776. ; 14:8, s. 511-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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- De Jong, VMT, et al.
(författare)
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Clinical prediction models for mortality in patients with covid-19: external validation and individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2022
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Ingår i: BMJ (Clinical research ed.). - : BMJ. - 1756-1833. ; 378, s. e069881-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ObjectiveTo externally validate various prognostic models and scoring rules for predicting short term mortality in patients admitted to hospital for covid-19.DesignTwo stage individual participant data meta-analysis.SettingSecondary and tertiary care.Participants46 914 patients across 18 countries, admitted to a hospital with polymerase chain reaction confirmed covid-19 from November 2019 to April 2021.Data sourcesMultiple (clustered) cohorts in Brazil, Belgium, China, Czech Republic, Egypt, France, Iran, Israel, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States previously identified by a living systematic review of covid-19 prediction models published inThe BMJ, and through PROSPERO, reference checking, and expert knowledge.Model selection and eligibility criteriaPrognostic models identified by the living systematic review and through contacting experts. A priori models were excluded that had a high risk of bias in the participant domain of PROBAST (prediction model study risk of bias assessment tool) or for which the applicability was deemed poor.MethodsEight prognostic models with diverse predictors were identified and validated. A two stage individual participant data meta-analysis was performed of the estimated model concordance (C) statistic, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large, and observed to expected ratio (O:E) across the included clusters.Main outcome measures30 day mortality or in-hospital mortality.ResultsDatasets included 27 clusters from 18 different countries and contained data on 46 914patients. The pooled estimates ranged from 0.67 to 0.80 (C statistic), 0.22 to 1.22 (calibration slope), and 0.18 to 2.59 (O:E ratio) and were prone to substantial between study heterogeneity. The 4C Mortality Score by Knight et al (pooled C statistic 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84, 95% prediction interval 0.72 to 0.86) and clinical model by Wang et al (0.77, 0.73 to 0.80, 0.63 to 0.87) had the highest discriminative ability. On average, 29% fewer deaths were observed than predicted by the 4C Mortality Score (pooled O:E 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.45 to 1.11, 95% prediction interval 0.21 to 2.39), 35% fewer than predicted by the Wang clinical model (0.65, 0.52 to 0.82, 0.23 to 1.89), and 4% fewer than predicted by Xie et al’s model (0.96, 0.59 to 1.55, 0.21 to 4.28).ConclusionThe prognostic value of the included models varied greatly between the data sources. Although the Knight 4C Mortality Score and Wang clinical model appeared most promising, recalibration (intercept and slope updates) is needed before implementation in routine care.
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- Belay, Mulugeta, et al.
(författare)
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Detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex DNA in CD34-positive peripheral blood mononuclear cells of asymptomatic tuberculosis contacts : an observational study
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Lancet Microbe. - 2666-5247. ; 2:6, s. 267-275
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Haematopoietic stem cells expressing the CD34 surface marker have been posited as a niche for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex bacilli during latent tuberculosis infection. Our aim was to determine whether M tuberculosis complex DNA is detectable in CD34-positive peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) isolated from asymptomatic adults living in a setting with a high tuberculosis burden. Methods: We did a cross-sectional study in Ethiopia between Nov 22, 2017, and Jan 10, 2019. Digital PCR (dPCR) was used to determine whether M tuberculosis complex DNA was detectable in PBMCs isolated from 100 mL blood taken from asymptomatic adults with HIV infection or a history of recent household or occupational exposure to an index case of human or bovine tuberculosis. Participants were recruited from HIV clinics, tuberculosis clinics, and cattle farms in and around Addis Ababa. A nested prospective study was done in a subset of HIV-infected individuals to evaluate whether administration of isoniazid preventive therapy was effective in clearing M tuberculosis complex DNA from PBMCs. Follow-up was done between July 20, 2018, and Feb 13, 2019. QuantiFERON-TB Gold assays were also done on all baseline and follow-up samples. Findings: Valid dPCR data (ie, droplet counts >10 000 per well) were available for paired CD34-positive and CD34-negative PBMC fractions from 197 (70%) of 284 participants who contributed data to cross-sectional analyses. M tuberculosis complex DNA was detected in PBMCs of 156 of 197 participants with valid dPCR data (79%, 95% CI 74–85). It was more commonly present in CD34-positive than in CD34-negative fractions (154 [73%] of 197 vs 46 [23%] of 197; p<0·0001). Prevalence of dPCR-detected M tuberculosis complex DNA did not differ between QuantiFERON-negative and QuantiFERON-positive participants (77 [78%] of 99 vs 79 [81%] of 98; p=0·73), but it was higher in HIV-infected than in HIV-uninfected participants (67 [89%] of 75 vs 89 [73%] of 122, p=0·0065). By contrast, the proportion of QuantiFERON-positive participants was lower in HIV-infected than in HIV-uninfected participants (25 [33%] of 75 vs 73 [60%] of 122; p<0·0001). Administration of isoniazid preventive therapy reduced the prevalence of dPCR-detected M tuberculosis complex DNA from 41 (95%) of 43 HIV-infected individuals at baseline to 23 (53%) of 43 after treatment (p<0·0001), but it did not affect the prevalence of QuantiFERON positivity (17 [40%] of 43 at baseline vs 13 [30%] of 43 after treatment; p=0·13). Interpretation: We report a novel molecular microbiological biomarker of latent tuberculosis infection with properties that are distinct from those of a commercial interferon-γ release assay. Our findings implicate the bone marrow as a niche for M tuberculosis in latently infected individuals. Detection of M tuberculosis complex DNA in PBMCs has potential applications in the diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection, in monitoring response to preventive therapy, and as an outcome measure in clinical trials of interventions to prevent or treat latent tuberculosis infection. Funding: UK Medical Research Council.
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