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- Blach, S., et al.
(författare)
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Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:5, s. 396-415
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 4. |
- Nahhas, M. A., et al.
(författare)
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Epidemiology of overweight and obesity in early childhood in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries: a systematic review and meta analysis protocol
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bmj Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 8:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction There has been a notable increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in school-aged children in many industrialised regions. The worldwide prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity increased from 4.2% in 1990 to 6.7% in 2010. Although many studies have been published, the epidemiological burden of overweight and obesity in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) is unclear. There is a need to bring together and appraise relevant studies in order to estimate the epidemiological burden (including incidence, prevalence, risk factors, trend over time) of overweight and obesity in this region and thus help to inform national and regional policies. Methods and analysis We will conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis on the epidemiology of overweight and obesity in early childhood including incidence, prevalence, risk factors and trends over time in the GCC countries. We will search international electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science, CINAHL, Google Scholar, AMED, Psych INFO, CAB International and WHO Global Health Library for published, unpublished and in-progress epidemiological studies of interest published from inception to 2017. In addition, we will contact an international panel of experts on the topic. There will be no restriction on the language of publication of studies. We will use the Effective Public Health Practice Project (EPHPP) to appraise the methodological quality of included studies. Meta-analysis will be undertaken using random effects models. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval is riot required. The outcome of the review will he disseminated through conference presentations and peer-reviewed journal publication.
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| 7. |
- Zhang, Guo-Qiang, et al.
(författare)
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Menopausal hormone therapy and women's health: An umbrella review
- 2021
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 18:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Author summary Why was this study done? By 2050, it is estimated that worldwide more than 1.6 billion women will have reached menopause or be postmenopausal, up from 1 billion in 2020. Up to 75% of menopausal women are affected by bothersome menopausal symptoms, such as hot flashes and night sweats. Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) is the most effective treatment for alleviating menopausal symptoms, but its effects on numerous health outcomes remain uncertain. What did the researchers do and find? We included 60 published systematic reviews of MHT use in menopausal women, involving 102 meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials and 38 of observational studies, and synthesized the evidence on 102 health outcomes. Overall, MHT had a complex balance of benefits and harms; for example, beyond alleviation of menopausal symptoms, it was associated with decreased risks of bone fracture, diabetes mellitus, and esophageal, gastric, and colorectal cancer, but increased risks of stroke, venous thromboembolism, gallbladder disease, and breast and ovarian cancer. The available clinical data in support of MHT reducing the risk of coronary heart disease and all-cause mortality in women aged <60 years or within 10 years from menopause (known as the "timing hypothesis") were only suggestive. The overall quality of included systematic reviews was moderate to poor. What do these findings mean? This overview of the evidence landscape could help guideline developers and decision-makers better appreciate the trade-offs between the benefits and harms associated with MHT use in menopausal women. More data are needed to evaluate the timing hypothesis for coronary heart disease and all-cause mortality. Clinicians should evaluate the scientific strength of systematic reviews prior to considering applying their results in clinical practice. Background There remains uncertainty about the impact of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) on women's health. A systematic, comprehensive assessment of the effects on multiple outcomes is lacking. We conducted an umbrella review to comprehensively summarize evidence on the benefits and harms of MHT across diverse health outcomes. Methods and findings We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and 10 other databases from inception to November 26, 2017, updated on December 17, 2020, to identify systematic reviews or meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies investigating effects of MHT, including estrogen-alone therapy (ET) and estrogen plus progestin therapy (EPT), in perimenopausal or postmenopausal women in all countries and settings. All health outcomes in previous systematic reviews were included, including menopausal symptoms, surrogate endpoints, biomarkers, various morbidity outcomes, and mortality. Two investigators independently extracted data and assessed methodological quality of systematic reviews using the updated 16-item AMSTAR 2 instrument. Random-effects robust variance estimation was used to combine effect estimates, and 95% prediction intervals (PIs) were calculated whenever possible. We used the term MHT to encompass ET and EPT, and results are presented for MHT for each outcome, unless otherwise indicated. Sixty systematic reviews were included, involving 102 meta-analyses of RCTs and 38 of observational studies, with 102 unique outcomes. The overall quality of included systematic reviews was moderate to poor. In meta-analyses of RCTs, MHT was beneficial for vasomotor symptoms (frequency: 9 trials, 1,104 women, risk ratio [RR] 0.43, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.57, p < 0.001; severity: 7 trials, 503 women, RR 0.29, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.50, p = 0.002) and all fracture (30 trials, 43,188 women, RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.84, p = 0.002, 95% PI 0.58 to 0.87), as well as vaginal atrophy (intravaginal ET), sexual function, vertebral and nonvertebral fracture, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular mortality (ET), and colorectal cancer (EPT), but harmful for stroke (17 trials, 37,272 women, RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.29, p = 0.027) and venous thromboembolism (23 trials, 42,292 women, RR 1.60, 95% CI 0.99 to 2.58, p = 0.052, 95% PI 1.03 to 2.99), as well as cardiovascular disease incidence and recurrence, cerebrovascular disease, nonfatal stroke, deep vein thrombosis, gallbladder disease requiring surgery, and lung cancer mortality (EPT). In meta-analyses of observational studies, MHT was associated with decreased risks of cataract, glioma, and esophageal, gastric, and colorectal cancer, but increased risks of pulmonary embolism, cholelithiasis, asthma, meningioma, and thyroid, breast, and ovarian cancer. ET and EPT had opposite effects for endometrial cancer, endometrial hyperplasia, and Alzheimer disease. The major limitations include the inability to address the varying effects of MHT by type, dose, formulation, duration of use, route of administration, and age of initiation and to take into account the quality of individual studies included in the systematic reviews. The study protocol is publicly available on PROSPERO (CRD42017083412). Conclusions MHT has a complex balance of benefits and harms on multiple health outcomes. Some effects differ qualitatively between ET and EPT. The quality of available evidence is only moderate to poor.
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