| 1. |
- Boese, Vanessa Alexandra, et al.
(författare)
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Visualizing Authority Patterns over Space and Time
- 2020
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Ingår i: SSRN Electronic Journal. - Göteborg : Göteborgs universitet. - 1556-5068.
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Unidimensional measures of democracy fail to account for the complex and varied nature of political systems. This article disaggregates the concept of democracy and proposes a multidimensional conceptualization to account for this variation in institutional congurations. Three theoretically informed dimensions are featured: participation, electoral contestation, and constraints on the executive. The three dimensions constitute a cube covering all regime types, in which we place countries using V-Dem data from 1789 to 2018. The cube of democracy patterns reveals several interesting observations. We trace historical patterns of democratization and autocratization, and discuss how global and regional developments take dierent paths at dierent times. Our conceptualization makes it clear that political systems with a similar score along a unidimensional scale can in fact be quite distinct. In addition, across the globe over 200 years, certain congurations of political institutions never occur. In other words, incompatible institutional pairs do not exist or are extremely short lived. This multidimensional conceptualization ultimately opens up a new eld of research in which institutional change can be studied in greater detail across countries and over time.
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| 2. |
- Clayton, Govinda, et al.
(författare)
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Introducing the ETH/PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefire Dataset
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 67:7-8, s. 1430-1451
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article introduces the Civil Conflict CeaseFire (CF) dataset. The CF data covers all ceasefires in civil conflict between 1989 and 2020, including multilateral, bilateral and unilateral arrangements, ranging from verbal arrangements to detailed written agreements. In total, the CF data includes 2202 ceasefires across 66 countries and 109 civil conflicts. The data feature information on the actors involved in the ceasefire, and the class, purpose, coverage, and end date of the ceasefire. The CF data provide an empirical basis to assess the conditions that give rise to ceasefires, how ceasefires affect the dynamics of conflict, and the role of a ceasefire in the peace process. This article presents the rationale underlying the data collection, the coding rules and procedures, and how this data can be used for analysis.
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| 3. |
- Hegre, Håvard, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
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Can We Predict Armed Conflict? : How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality
- 2021
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Ingår i: International Studies Quarterly. - : Oxford University Press. - 0020-8833 .- 1468-2478. ; 65:3, s. 660-668
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Can we predict civil war? This article sheds light on this question by evaluating 9 years of, at the time, future predictions made by Hegre et al. (2013) in 2011. We evaluate the ability of this study to predict observed conflicts in the 2010–2018 period, using multiple metrics. We also evaluate the original performance evaluation, i.e., whether the performance measures presented by Hegre et al. hold in this new 9-year window. Overall, we conclude that Hegre et al. were able to produce meaningful and reasonably accurate predictions of armed conflict. Of course, they did not always hit the mark. We find that the model has performed worse in predicting low level incidence of conflict than in predicting major armed conflict. The model also failed to predict some important broader regional shifts. These, however, represent important insights for future research and illustrate the utility in predictive models for both testing and developing theory.
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| 4. |
- Hegre, Håvard, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Politics. - : University of Chicago Press. - 0022-3816 .- 1468-2508. ; 81:1, s. 215-232
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Several studies show a beneficial effect of peacekeeping operations (PKOs). However, by looking at individual effect pathways (intensity, duration, recurrence, diffusion) in isolation, they underestimate the peacekeeping impact of PKOs. We propose a novel method of evaluating the combined impact across all pathways based on a statistical model of the efficacy of UN PKOs in preventing the onset, escalation, continuation, and recurrence of internal armed conflict. We run a set of simulations based on the statistical estimates to assess the impact of alternative UN policies for the 2001-13 period. If the UN had invested US$200 billion in PKOs with strong mandates, major armed conflict would have been reduced by up to two-thirds relative to a scenario without PKOs and 150,000 lives would have been saved over the 13-year period compared to a no-PKO scenario. UN peacekeeping is clearly a cost-effective way of increasing global security.
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| 5. |
- Hegre, Håvard, et al.
(författare)
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Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations 2010-2035
- 2011
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Ingår i: Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction. - Heidelberg : Springer. - 9783642196553 - 9783642196560 ; , s. 325-332
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We simulate how a set of different UN policies for peace-keeping operations is likely to affect the global incidence of internal armed conflict. The simulation is based on a statistical model that estimates the efficacy of UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) in preventing the onset, escalation, continuation, and recurrence of internal armed conflict. The model takes into account a set of important conflict predictors for which we have projections up to 2035 from the UN and the IIASA. The estimates are based on a 1970–2008 cross-sectional dataset of changes between conflict levels and new data on PKO budgets and mandates. The simulations show a strong effect of PKOs on the global incidence of major conflicts, although restricted to operations with robust mandates. Extensive use of ‘transformational’ PKOs can reduce the global incidence of the most lethal conflicts with 65%.
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| 6. |
- Hegre, Håvard, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
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ViEWS : A political violence early-warning system
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Peace Research. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-3433 .- 1460-3578. ; 56:2, s. 155-174
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article presents ViEWS – a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence in Africa. The article presents the methodology and data behind these forecasts, evaluates their predictive performance, provides selected forecasts for October 2018 through October 2021, and indicates future extensions. ViEWS is built as an ensemble of constituent models designed to optimize its predictions. Each of these represents a theme that the conflict research literature suggests is relevant, or implements a specific statistical/machine-learning approach. Current forecasts indicate a persistence of conflict in regions in Africa with a recent history of political violence but also alert to new conflicts such as in Southern Cameroon and Northern Mozambique. The subsequent evaluation additionally shows that ViEWS is able to accurately capture the long-term behavior of established political violence, as well as diffusion processes such as the spread of violence in Cameroon. The performance demonstrated here indicates that ViEWS can be a useful complement to non-public conflict-warning systems, and also serves as a reference against which future improvements can be evaluated.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Davenport, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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The Consequences of Contention : Understanding the Aftereffects of Political Conflict and Violence
- 2019
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Ingår i: Annual review of political science (Palo Alto, Calif. Print). - : Annual Reviews. - 1094-2939 .- 1545-1577. ; 22, s. 361-377
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- What are the political and economic consequences of contention (i.e., genocide, civil war, state repression/human rights violation, terrorism, and protest)? Despite a significant amount of interest as well as quantitative research, the literature on this subject remains underdeveloped and imbalanced across topic areas. To date, investigations have been focused on particular forms of contention and specific consequences. While this research has led to some important insights, substantial limitations-as well as opportunities for future development-remain. In particular, there is a need for simultaneously investigating a wider range of consequences (beyond democracy and economic development), a wider range of contentious activity (beyond civil war, protest, and terrorism), a wider range of units of analysis (beyond the nation year), and a wider range of empirical approaches in order to handle particular difficulties confronting this type of inquiry (beyond ordinary least-squares regression). Only then will we have a better and more comprehensive understanding of what contention does and does not do politically and economically. This review takes stock of existing research and lays out an approach for looking at the problem using a more comprehensive perspective.
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| 9. |
- Fjelde, Hanne, 1978-, et al.
(författare)
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Which institutions matter? : Re-considering the democratic civil peace
- 2021
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Ingår i: International Studies Quarterly. - : Oxford University Press. - 0020-8833 .- 1468-2478. ; 65:1, s. 223-237
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite decades of research, there is no consensus on the relationship between democratic institutions and risk of civil war. We alleviate measurement issues and theoretical ambiguity in much existing work by theoretically and empirically unpacking core features of democracy and their relationship to civil war. We distinguish between institutions that impose vertical constraints on leaders from the population at large, and institutions that allow various groups, including non-incumbent elites, to place horizontal constraints on leader behavior. Both types of democratic institutions, we argue, help leaders overcome commitment problems related to potential agents of rebellion, thus reducing civil war risk. This is particularly so when these institutional mechanisms reinforce each other. Using precise institutional indicators from Varieties of Democracy, we disentangle and separately measure the dimensions of interest. Both vertical and (especially) horizontal constraints mitigate civil war risk, but only clearly so when both types of constraining institutions co-exist in so-called liberal democracies. Absent constraints from a capable parliament or independent judiciary, improvements to the freeness and fairness of elections do not mitigate civil war onset.
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