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| 2. |
- Fiedler, Stephanie, et al.
(författare)
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Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP
- 2024
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 17:6, s. 2387-2417
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The climate science community aims to improve our understanding of climate change due to anthropogenic influences on atmospheric composition and the Earth's surface. Yet not all climate interactions are fully understood, and uncertainty in climate model results persists, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We synthesize current challenges and emphasize opportunities for advancing our understanding of the interactions between atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate change, as well as for quantifying model diversity. Our perspective is based on expert views from three multi-model intercomparison projects (MIPs) – the Precipitation Driver Response MIP (PDRMIP), the Aerosol Chemistry MIP (AerChemMIP), and the Radiative Forcing MIP (RFMIP). While there are many shared interests and specializations across the MIPs, they have their own scientific foci and specific approaches. The partial overlap between the MIPs proved useful for advancing the understanding of the perturbation–response paradigm through multi-model ensembles of Earth system models of varying complexity. We discuss the challenges of gaining insights from Earth system models that face computational and process representation limits and provide guidance from our lessons learned. Promising ideas to overcome some long-standing challenges in the near future are kilometer-scale experiments to better simulate circulation-dependent processes where it is possible and machine learning approaches where they are needed, e.g., for faster and better subgrid-scale parameterizations and pattern recognition in big data. New model constraints can arise from augmented observational products that leverage multiple datasets with machine learning approaches. Future MIPs can develop smart experiment protocols that strive towards an optimal trade-off between the resolution, complexity, and number of simulations and their length and, thereby, help to advance the understanding of climate change and its impacts.
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| 3. |
- Duffy, J. Emmett, et al.
(författare)
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A Pleistocene legacy structures variation in modern seagrass ecosystems
- 2022
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:32
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Distribution of Earth's biomes is structured by the match between climate and plant traits, which in turn shape associated communities and ecosystem processes and services. However, that climate-trait match can be disrupted by historical events, with lasting ecosystem impacts. As Earth's environment changes faster than at any time in human history, critical questions are whether and how organismal traits and ecosystems can adjust to altered conditions. We quantified the relative importance of current environmental forcing versus evolutionary history in shaping the growth form (stature and biomass) and associated community of eelgrass (Zostera marina), a widespread foundation plant of marine ecosystems along Northern Hemisphere coastlines, which experienced major shifts in distribution and genetic composition during the Pleistocene. We found that eelgrass stature and biomass retain a legacy of the Pleistocene colonization of the Atlantic from the ancestral Pacific range and of more recent within-basin bottlenecks and genetic differentiation. This evolutionary legacy in turn influences the biomass of associated algae and invertebrates that fuel coastal food webs, with effects comparable to or stronger than effects of current environmental forcing. Such historical lags in phenotypic acclimatization may constrain ecosystem adjustments to rapid anthropogenic climate change, thus altering predictions about the future functioning of ecosystems.
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| 4. |
- Leinonen, Ville, et al.
(författare)
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Comparison of particle number size distribution trends in ground measurements and climate models
- 2022
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 22:19, s. 12873-12905
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite a large number of studies, out of all drivers of radiative forcing, the effect of aerosols has the largest uncertainty in global climate model radiative forcing estimates. There have been studies of aerosol optical properties in climate models, but the effects of particle number size distribution need a more thorough inspection. We investigated the trends and seasonality of particle number concentrations in nucleation, Aitken, and accumulation modes at 21 measurement sites in Europe and the Arctic. For 13 of those sites, with longer measurement time series, we compared the field observations with the results from five climate models, namely EC-Earth3, ECHAM-M7, ECHAM-SALSA, NorESM1.2, and UKESM1. This is the first extensive comparison of detailed aerosol size distribution trends between in situ observations from Europe and five earth system models (ESMs). We found that the trends of particle number concentrations were mostly consistent and decreasing in both measurements and models. However, for many sites, climate models showed weaker decreasing trends than the measurements. Seasonal variability in measured number concentrations, quantified by the ratio between maximum and minimum monthly number concentration, was typically stronger at northern measurement sites compared to other locations. Models had large differences in their seasonal representation, and they can be roughly divided into two categories: for EC-Earth and NorESM, the seasonal cycle was relatively similar for all sites, and for other models the pattern of seasonality varied between northern and southern sites. In addition, the variability in concentrations across sites varied between models, some having relatively similar concentrations for all sites, whereas others showed clear differences in concentrations between remote and urban sites. To conclude, although all of the model simulations had identical input data to describe anthropogenic mass emissions, trends in differently sized particles vary among the models due to assumptions in emission sizes and differences in how models treat size-dependent aerosol processes. The inter-model variability was largest in the accumulation mode, i.e. sizes which have implications for aerosol–cloud interactions. Our analysis also indicates that between models there is a large variation in efficiency of long-range transportation of aerosols to remote locations. The differences in model results are most likely due to the more complex effect of different processes instead of one specific feature (e.g. the representation of aerosol or emission size distributions). Hence, a more detailed characterization of microphysical processes and deposition processes affecting the long-range transport is needed to understand the model variability.
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| 5. |
- Malavelle, Florent F., et al.
(författare)
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Strong constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 546:7659, s. 485-491
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn produces aerosols; these eruptions thus represent a natural experiment through which to quantify aerosol-cloud interactions. Here we show that the massive 2014-2015 fissure eruption in Holuhraun, Iceland, reduced the size of liquid cloud droplets-consistent with expectations-but had no discernible effect on other cloud properties. The reduction in droplet size led to cloud brightening and global-mean radiative forcing of around -0.2 watts per square metre for September to October 2014. Changes in cloud amount or cloud liquid water path, however, were undetectable, indicating that these indirect effects, and cloud systems in general, are well buffered against aerosol changes. This result will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, because we are now able to reject results from climate models with an excessive liquid-water-path response.
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| 6. |
- Nelson, Laura, et al.
(författare)
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FKBPL: a marker of good prognosis in breast cancer.
- 2015
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Ingår i: Oncotarget. - : Impact Journals, LLC. - 1949-2553. ; 6:14, s. 12209-12223
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- FK506-binding protein-like (FKBPL) has established roles as an anti-tumor protein, with a therapeutic peptide based on this protein, ALM201, shortly entering phase I/II clinical trials. Here, we evaluated FKBPL's prognostic ability in primary breast cancer tissue, represented on tissue microarrays (TMA) from 3277 women recruited into five independent retrospective studies, using immunohistochemistry (IHC). In a meta-analysis, FKBPL levels were a significant predictor of BCSS; low FKBPL levels indicated poorer breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-1.49, p < 0.001). The prognostic impact of FKBPL remained significant after adjusting for other known prognostic factors (HR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.07-1.45, p = 0.004). For the sub-groups of 2365 estrogen receptor (ER) positive patients and 1649 tamoxifen treated patients, FKBPL was significantly associated with BCSS (HR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.13-1.58, p < 0.001, and HR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.04-1.49, p = 0.02, respectively). A univariate analysis revealed that FKBPL was also a significant predictor of relapse free interval (RFI) within the ER positive patient group, but it was only borderline significant within the smaller tamoxifen treated patient group (HR = 1.32 95% CI 1.05-1.65, p = 0.02 and HR = 1.23 95% CI 0.99-1.54, p = 0.06, respectively). The data suggests a role for FKBPL as a prognostic factor for BCSS, with the potential to be routinely evaluated within the clinic.
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| 7. |
- Ross, Fiona M., et al.
(författare)
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Report from the European Myeloma Network on interphase FISH in multiple myeloma and related disorders
- 2012
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Ingår i: Haematologica. - : Ferrata Storti Foundation (Haematologica). - 1592-8721 .- 0390-6078. ; 97:8, s. 1272-1277
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The European Myeloma Network has organized two workshops on fluorescence in situ hybridization in multiple myeloma. The first aimed to identify specific indications and consensus technical approaches of current practice. A second workshop followed a quality control exercise in which 21 laboratories analyzed diagnostic cases of purified plasma cells for recurrent abnormalities. The summary report was discussed at the EHA Myeloma Scientific Working Group Meeting 2010. During the quality control exercise, there was acceptable agreement on more than 1,000 tests. The conclusions from the exercise were that the primary clinical applications for FISH analysis were for newly diagnosed cases of MM or frank relapse cases. A range of technical recommendations included: 1) material should be part of the first draw of the aspirate; 2) samples should be sent at suitable times to allow for the lengthy processing procedure; 3) most importantly, PCs must be purified or specifically identified; 4) positive cut-off levels should be relatively conservative: 10% for fusion or break-apart probes, 20% for numerical abnormalities; 5) informative probes should be combined to best effect; 6) in specialist laboratories, a single experienced analyst is considered adequate; 7) at least 100 PC should be scored; 8) essential abnormalities to test for are t(4;14), t(14;16) and 17p13 deletions; 9) suitable commercial probes should be available for clinically relevant abnormalities; 10) the clinical report should be expressed clearly and must state the percentage of PC involved and the method used for identification; 11) a retrospective European based FISH data bank linked to clinical data should be generated; and 12) prospective analysis should be centralized for upcoming trials based on the recommendations made. The European Myeloma Network aims to build on these recommendations to establish standards for a common European data base to define subgroups with prognostic significance.
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| 8. |
- Smith, Christopher J., et al.
(författare)
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Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models
- 2020
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 20:16, s. 9591-9618
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (+/- 0.23) W m(-2), comprised of 1.81 (+/- 0.09) Wm(-2) from CO2, 1.08 (+/- 0.21) Wm(-2) from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, -1.01 (+/- 0.23) W m(-2) from aerosols and -0.09 (+/- 0.13) W m(-2) from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m(-2). The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m(-2) is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol-cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from -0.63 to -1.37 W m(-2), exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4 x CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.
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| 9. |
- Röhr, Maria Emilia, et al.
(författare)
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Blue Carbon Storage Capacity of Temperate Eelgrass (Zostera marina) Meadows
- 2018
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 32:10, s. 1457-1475
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite the importance of coastal ecosystems for the global carbon budgets, knowledge of their carbon storage capacity and the factors driving variability in storage capacity is still limited. Here we provide an estimate on the magnitude and variability of carbon stocks within a widely distributed marine foundation species throughout its distribution area in temperate Northern Hemisphere. We sampled 54 eelgrass (Zostera marina) meadows, spread across eight ocean margins and 36° of latitude, to determine abiotic and biotic factors influencing organic carbon (Corg) stocks in Zostera marina sediments. The Corg stocks (integrated over 25-cm depth) showed a large variability and ranged from 318 to 26,523gC/m2 with an average of 2,721gC/m2. The projected Corg stocks obtained by extrapolating over the top 1m of sediment ranged between 23.1 and 351.7MgC/ha, which is in line with estimates for other seagrasses and other blue carbon ecosystems. Most of the variation in Corg stocks was explained by five environmental variables (sediment mud content, dry density and degree of sorting, and salinity and water depth), while plant attributes such as biomass and shoot density were less important to Corg stocks. Carbon isotopic signatures indicated that at most sites <50% of the sediment carbon is derived from seagrass, which is lower than reported previously for seagrass meadows. The high spatial carbon storage variability urges caution in extrapolating carbon storage capacity between geographical areas as well as within and between seagrass species.
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