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| 3. |
- Jankovic, N., et al.
(författare)
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ASSOCIATION BETWEEN A HEALTHY DIET ACCORDING TO WHO GUIDELINES AND ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY IN EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ELDERLY, THE CHANCES PROJECT
- 2013
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Ingår i: Annals of Nutrition and Metabolism. - : S. Karger. - 0250-6807 .- 1421-9697. ; 63:Supplement 1, s. 234-234
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Background and objectives: The Healthy Diet Indicator(HDI) measures adherence to the WHO guidelines for preventingdiet related chronic diseases, and can be applied to assessassociations of diet with health across populations. We examinedthe association between the HDI and all-cause mortalityin European and American elderly people aged 60 years andabove.Methods: We analysed data on 395,863 men and womenfrom 11 prospective cohort studies from the Consortium onHealth and Ageing: Network of Cohorts In Europe And TheUnited States (CHANCES). Across cohorts, the follow-upperiods ranged from 10 to 20 yrs. Diet was assessed throughvalidated methods. For the translation of foods to nutrients,country specific food composition tables were used. The continuouslyscored HDI (range mean and SD HDI score 45±9to 54±7 across cohorts) was based on intakes of saturated andpolyunsaturated fatty acids, mono-and disaccharides, protein,cholesterol, dietary fibre and fruits and vegetables. The associationbetween the HDI and all-cause mortality was evaluated ineach cohort separately, by multiple Cox proportional hazardsregression. A pooled hazard ratio (HR) was subsequently estimatedusing a random-effects model.Results: Across all cohorts, 84,863 people died during4,492,298 person-years of follow-up. Adjusted HR of death, fora 10 point increment in HDI score, ranged between 0.81 (95%CI 0.77-0.86) in Denmark and 0.99 (95% CI, 0.84-1.16) in Poland.The pooled adjusted HR estimate showed a significantinverse association of 0.90 (95% CI 0.87-0.93) but there was asignificant heterogeneity between studies (p=0.001, I2=66%).Conclusion: Our results show that higher dietary quality isinversely associated with all- cause mortality but
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| 4. |
- Saunois, M., et al.
(författare)
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The global methane budget 2000–2012
- 2016
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 8:2, s. 697-751
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (∼ biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003–2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 540–568. About 60 % of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50–65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 596–884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 64 % of the global budget, < 30° N) as compared to mid (∼ 32 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (∼ 58 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 51–72, −14 %) and higher emissions in Africa (86 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 73–108, +19 %) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30–40 % on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.
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| 5. |
- Saunois, M., et al.
(författare)
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Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012
- 2017
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 17:18, s. 11135-11161
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008–2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16–32] Tg CH4 yr−1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008–2012 compared to 2002–2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002–2006 and 2008–2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.
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- Ordóñez-Me, J. M., et al.
(författare)
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Impact of prediagnostic smoking and smoking cessation on colorectal cancer prognosis : a meta-analysis of individual patient data from cohorts within the CHANCES consortium
- 2018
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Ingår i: Annals of Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0923-7534 .- 1569-8041. ; 29:2, s. 472-483
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Smoking has been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in previous studies and might also be associated with prognosis after CRC diagnosis. However, current evidence on smoking in association with CRC prognosis is limited.Patients and methods: For this individual patient data meta-analysis, sociodemographic and smoking behavior information of 12,414 incident CRC patients (median age at diagnosis: 64.3 years), recruited within 14 prospective cohort studies among previously cancer-free adults, was collected at baseline and harmonized across studies. Vital status and causes of death were collected for a mean follow-up time of 5.1 years following cancer diagnosis. Associations of smoking behavior with overall and CRC-specific survival were evaluated using Cox regression and standard meta-analysis methodology.Results: A total of 5,229 participants died, 3,194 from CRC. Cox regression revealed significant associations between former (hazard ratio (HR)=1.12; 95%-confidence interval (CI)=1.04-1.20) and current smoking (HR = 1.29; 95%CI=1.04-1.60) and poorer overall survival compared with never smoking. Compared with current smoking, smoking cessation was associated with improved overall (HR<10years=0.78; 95%CI=0.69-0.88; HR≥10years=0.78; 95%CI=0.63-0.97) and CRC-specific survival (HR≥10years=0.76; 95%CI=0.67-0.85).Conclusion: In this large meta-analysis including primary data of incident CRC patients from 14 prospective cohort studies on the association between smoking and CRC prognosis, former and current smoking were associated with poorer CRC prognosis compared with never smoking. Smoking cessation was associated with improved survival when compared with current smokers. Future studies should further quantify the benefits of non-smoking, both for cancer prevention and for improving survival among CRC patients, in particular also in terms of treatment response.
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| 7. |
- Saunois, Marielle, et al.
(författare)
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The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017
- 2020
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3516 .- 1866-3508. ; 12:3, s. 1561-1623
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations).For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30∘ N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60∘ N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90∘ N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters.Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4 yr−1 lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4 yr−1 by 8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.The data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-CH4-2019 (Saunois et al., 2020) and from the Global Carbon Project.
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- Barrington, Sally F, et al.
(författare)
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PET-CT for staging and early response : results from the Response-Adapted Therapy in Advanced Hodgkin Lymphoma study.
- 2016
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Ingår i: Blood. - : American Society of Hematology. - 0006-4971 .- 1528-0020. ; 127:12, s. 1531-1538
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- International guidelines recommend that positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) should replace CT in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). The aims of this study were to compare PET-CT with CT for staging and measure agreement between expert and local readers, using a 5-point scale (Deauville criteria), to adapt treatment in a clinical trial: Response-Adapted Therapy in Advanced Hodgkin Lymphoma (RATHL). Patients were staged using clinical assessment, CT, and bone marrow biopsy (RATHL stage). PET-CT was performed at baseline (PET0) and after 2 chemotherapy cycles (PET2) in a response-adapted design. PET-CT was reported centrally by experts at 5 national core laboratories. Local readers optionally scored PET2 scans. The RATHL and PET-CT stages were compared. Agreement among experts and between expert and local readers was measured. RATHL and PET0 stage were concordant in 938 (80%) patients. PET-CT upstaged 159 (14%) and downstaged 74 (6%) patients. Upstaging by extranodal disease in bone marrow (92), lung (11), or multiple sites (12) on PET-CT accounted for most discrepancies. Follow-up of discrepant findings confirmed the PET characterization of lesions in the vast majority. Five patients were upstaged by marrow biopsy and 7 by contrast-enhanced CT in the bowel and/or liver or spleen. PET2 agreement among experts (140 scans) with a κ (95% confidence interval) of 0.84 (0.76-0.91) was very good and between experts and local readers (300 scans) at 0.77 (0.68-0.86) was good. These results confirm PET-CT as the modern standard for staging HL and that response assessment using Deauville criteria is robust, enabling translation of RATHL results into clinical practice.
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- Mulcahy, P., et al.
(författare)
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Development and characterisation of a novel rat model of Parkinson's disease induced by sequential intranigral administration of AAV-α-synuclein and the pesticide, rotenone.
- 2012
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Ingår i: Neuroscience. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-7544 .- 0306-4522. ; 203, s. 170-179
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Modeling Parkinson's disease remains a major challenge for preclinical researchers, as existing models fail to reliably recapitulate all of the classic features of the disease, namely, the progressive emergence of a bradykinetic motor syndrome with underlying nigrostriatal alpha-synuclein protein accumulation and nigrostriatal neurodegeneration. One limitation of the existing models is that they are normally induced by a single neuropathological insult, whereas the human disease is thought to be multifactorial with genetic and environmental factors contributing to the disease pathogenesis. Thus, in order to develop a more relevant model, we sought to determine if administration of the Parkinson's disease-associated pesticide, rotenone, into the substantia nigra of rats overexpressing the Parkinson's disease-associated protein, alpha-synuclein, could reliably model the triad of classic features of the human disease. To do so, rats underwent stereotaxic surgery for unilateral delivery of the adenoassociated virus (AAV)-alpha-synuclein into the substantia nigra. This was followed 13 weeks later by delivery of rotenone into the same site. The effect of the genetic and environmental insults alone or in combination on lateralised motor performance (Corridor, Stepping, and Whisker Tests), nigrostriatal integrity (tyrosine hydroxylase immunohistochemistry), and alpha-synucleinopathy (alpha-synuclein immunohistochemistry) was assessed. We found that rats treated with either AAV-alpha-synuclein or rotenone developed significant motor dysfunction with underlying nigrostriatal neurodegeneration. However, when the genetic and environmental insults were sequentially administered, the detrimental impact of the combined insults on motor performance and nigrostriatal integrity was significantly greater than the impact of either insult alone. This indicates that sequential exposure to relevant genetic and environmental insults is a valid approach to modeling human Parkinson's disease in the rat. 2011 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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- Sluik, D., et al.
(författare)
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Alcoholic beverage preference and diabetes incidence across Europe : the Consortium on Health and Ageing Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES) project
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 0954-3007 .- 1476-5640. ; 71:5, s. 659-668
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: It is unknown if wine, beer and spirit intake lead to a similar association with diabetes. We studied the association between alcoholic beverage preference and type 2 diabetes incidence in persons who reported to consume alcohol. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Ten European cohort studies from the Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States were included, comprising participant data of 62 458 adults who reported alcohol consumption at baseline. Diabetes incidence was based on documented and/or self-reported diagnosis during follow-up. Preference was defined when. >= 70% of total alcohol consumed was either beer, wine or spirits. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were computed using Cox proportional hazard regression. Single-cohort HRs were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Beer, wine or spirit preference was not related to diabetes risk compared with having no preference. The pooled HRs were HR 1.06 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93, 1.20) for beer, HR 0.99 (95% CI 0.88, 1.11) for wine, and HR 1.19 (95% CI 0.97, 1.46) for spirit preference. Absolute wine intake, adjusted for total alcohol, was associated with a lower diabetes risk: pooled HR per 6 g/day was 0.96 (95% CI 0.93, 0.99). A spirit preference was related to a higher diabetes risk in those with a higher body mass index, in men and women separately, but not after excluding persons with prevalent diseases. CONCLUSIONS: This large individual-level meta-analysis among persons who reported alcohol consumption revealed that the preference for beer, wine, and spirits was similarly associated with diabetes incidence compared with having no preference.
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