| 1. |
- Leclere, David, et al.
(författare)
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Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 585:7826, s. 551-556
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides(1,2). Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity(3); however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge(4). Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity(5). We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy. To promote the recovery of the currently declining global trends in terrestrial biodiversity, increases in both the extent of land under conservation management and the sustainability of the global food system from farm to fork are required.
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| 2. |
- Roura-Pascual, Núria, et al.
(författare)
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Alternative futures for global biological invasions
- 2021
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Ingår i: Sustainability Science. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-4065 .- 1862-4057. ; 16:5, s. 1637-1650
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used two axes scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlights that socioeconomic developments and technological innovation have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known drivers, such as climate and human land use change and global trade. Our scenarios partially align with the shared socioeconomic pathways created by the climate change research community. Several factors that drive differences in biological invasions were underrepresented in the shared socioeconomic pathways; in particular, the implementation of biosecurity policies. We argue that including factors related to public environmental awareness and technological and trade development in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments and thereby obtain a more integrative picture of future social-ecological developments.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Azar, Christian, 1969, et al.
(författare)
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The feasibility of low CO2 concentration targets and the role of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)
- 2010
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-1480 .- 0165-0009. ; 100:1, s. 195-202
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC 1992) calls for stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. We use three global energy system models to investigate the technological and economic attainability of meeting CO2 concentration targets below current levels. Our scenario studies reveal that while energy portfolios from a broad range of energy technologies are needed to attain low concentrations, negative emission technologies-e.g., biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)-significantly enhances the possibility to meet low concentration targets (at around 350 ppm CO2).
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Fuss, S., et al.
(författare)
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Adoption of electricity generating technologies under long-term climate policy uncertainty
- 2009
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-6777 .- 0301-4215. ; 37:2, s. 733-743
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a real options model where multiple options are evaluated simultaneously so that the effect of the individual options on each other is accounted for. We apply this model to the electricity sector, where we analyze three typical technologies based on fossil fuel, fossil fuel with carbon capture and renewable energy, respectively. In this way, we can analyze the transition from CO2-intensive to CO2-neutral electricity production in the face of rising and uncertain CO2 prices. In addition, such a modelling approach enables us to estimate precisely the expected value of (perfect) information, i.e. the willingness of investors and producers to pay for information about the correct CO2 price path. As can be expected, the expected value of information rises with increasing CO2 price uncertainty. In addition, the larger the price uncertainty, the larger are the cumulative CO2 emissions over the coming century. The reason for this is that the transition to less CO2-intensive technologies is increasingly postponed with rising CO2 price uncertainty. By testing different price processes (geometric Brownian motion versus jump processes with different jump frequencies), we can also make useful recommendations concerning the importance of policy predictability. We find that it is better to have climate change policies that are stable over a certain length of time and change abruptly than less abrupt but more frequently changing policies. Less frequent fluctuations reduce the expected value of information and result in smaller cumulative CO2 emissions.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Mohammadi Limaei, Soleiman, et al.
(författare)
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Decision making in forest management with consideration of stochastic prices
- 2010
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Ingår i: Iranian Journal of Operations Research. ; 2:1, s. 32-40
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The optimal harvesting policy is calculated as a function of the entering stock, the price state, the harvesting cost, and the rate of interest in the capital market. In order to determine the optimal harvest schedule, the growth function and stumpage price process are estimated for the Swedish mixed species forests. The stumpage price is assumed to follow a stochastic Markov process. A stochastic dynamic programming technique and traditional deterministic methods are used to obtain the optimal decisions. The expected present value of all future profits is maximized. The results of adaptive optimization are compared with results obtained by the traditional deterministic approach. The results show a significant increase in the expected economic values via optimal adaptive decisions.
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| 9. |
- Obersteiner, M., et al.
(författare)
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Managing climate risk
- 2001
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Ingår i: Science magazine. - Washington DC : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 294:5543, s. 786-787
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a safe level is a paradigm that the scientific andpolicy communities have widely adopted for addressing the problem of climate change. However, aiming to stabilize concentrations at a single target level might not be a robust strategy, given that the environment is extremely uncertain. The availability of technological options for adaptation, preventive mitigation, and backstop risk measures will be critical for limiting the risks associated with climate change. Technologies that can rapidly remove GHGs from the atmosphere will play an important role. Terrestrial sinks are limited by land requirements and saturation, and concerns about permanence limit their attractiveness. Biomass energy can be used both to produce carbon neutral energy carriers, e.g., electricity and hydrogen, and at the same time offer a permanent CO2 sink by capturing carbon from the biomass at the conversion facility and permanently storing it in geological formations. It is concluded that a system of climate risk management is practicable and necessary. Increasing deployment of sustainable bioenergy with carbon removal and sequestration, together with structural shift toward low carbon-intensive fuels, will turn out to be instrumental for such a risk-limiting regime.
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| 10. |
- Obersteiner, M., et al.
(författare)
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Managing Climate Risks
- 2001
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Ingår i: Science. ; 294:5543, s. 786-787
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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