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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Karaye, Kamilu M., et al.
(författare)
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Incidence, clinical characteristics, and risk factors of peripartum cardiomyopathy in Nigeria : results from the PEACE Registry
- 2020
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Ingår i: ESC Heart Failure. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2055-5822. ; 7:1, s. 236-244
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: The aim of this study was to describe the incidence, clinical characteristics and risk factors of peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM) in Nigeria.Methods and Results: The study was conducted in 22 hospitals in Nigeria, and PPCM patients were consecutively recruited between June 2017 and March 2018. To determine factors associated with PPCM, the patients were compared with apparently healthy women who recently delivered, as controls. Four hundred six patients were compared with 99 controls. The incidence and disease burden (based on the rate of consecutive recruitment of subjects) varied widely between the six geographical zones of Nigeria. From the North-West zone, 72.3% of the patients was recruited, where an incidence as high as 1 per 96 live births was obtained in a centre, while the disease was uncommon (7.6% of all recruited patients) in the South. Majority of the patients (76.6%) and controls (74.8%) (p = 0.694) were of Hausa-Fulani ethnic group. Atrial fibrillation, intracardiac thrombus, stroke, and right ventricular systolic dysfunction were found in 1.7%, 6.4%, 2.2%, and 54.9% of the patients, respectively. Lack of formal education (odds ratio [OR] 3.08, 95% confidence interval [1.71, 5.53]; P < 0.001), unemployment (OR: 3.28 [2.05, 5.24]; P < 0.001), underweight (OR: 13.43 [4.17, 43.21]; P < 0.001) and history of pre-eclampsia (OR: 9.01 [2.18, 37.75]; P = 0.002) emerged as independent PPCM risk factors using regression models. Customary hot baths (OR: 1.24 [0.80, 1.93]; P = 0.344), pap enriched with dried lake salt (OR: 1.20 [0.74, 1.94]; P = 0.451), and Hausa-Fulani ethnicity (OR: 1.11 [0.67, 1.84]; P = 0.698) did not achieve significance as PPCM risk factors.Conclusions: In Nigeria, the burden of PPCM was greatest in the North-West zone, which has the highest known incidence. PPCM was predicted by sociodemographic factors and pre-eclampsia, which should be considered in its control at population level. Postpartum customary birth practices and Hausa-Fulani ethnicity were not associated with PPCM in Nigeria.
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| 6. |
- Judge, C., et al.
(författare)
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Urinary Sodium and Potassium, and Risk of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke (INTERSTROKE): A Case-Control Study
- 2021
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Ingår i: American Journal of Hypertension. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0895-7061 .- 1941-7225. ; 34:4, s. 414-425
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND Although low sodium intake (<2 g/day) and high potassium intake (>3.5 g/day) are proposed as public health interventions to reduce stroke risk, there is uncertainty about the benefit and feasibility of this combined recommendation on prevention of stroke. METHODS We obtained random urine samples from 9,275 cases of acute first stroke and 9,726 matched controls from 27 countries and estimated the 24-hour sodium and potassium excretion, a surrogate for intake, using the Tanaka formula. Using multivariable conditional logistic regression, we determined the associations of estimated 24-hour urinary sodium and potassium excretion with stroke and its subtypes. RESULTS Compared with an estimated urinary sodium excretion of 2.8-3.5 g/ day (reference), higher (>4.26 g/day) (odds ratio [OR] 1.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65-2.00) and lower (<2.8 g/day) sodium excretion (OR 1.39; 95% CI, 1.26-1.53) were significantly associated with increased risk of stroke. The stroke risk associated with the highest quartile of sodium intake (sodium excretion >4.26 g/day) was significantly greater (P < 0.001) for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) (OR 2.38; 95% CI, 1.93-2.92) than for ischemic stroke (OR 1.67; 95% CI, 1.50-1.87). Urinary potassium was inversely and linearly associated with risk of stroke, and stronger for ischemic stroke than ICH (P = 0.026). In an analysis of combined sodium and potassium excretion, the combination of high potassium intake (>1.58 g/day) and moderate sodium intake (2.8-3.5 g/day) was associated with the lowest risk of stroke. CONCLUSIONS The association of sodium intake and stroke is J-shaped, with high sodium intake a stronger risk factor for ICH than ischemic stroke. Our data suggest that moderate sodium intake-rather than low sodium intake-combined with high potassium intake may be associated with the lowest risk of stroke and expected to be a more feasible combined dietary target.
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- O'Donnell, M. J., et al.
(författare)
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Global and regional effects of potentially modifiable risk factors associated with acute stroke in 32 countries (INTERSTROKE): a case-control study
- 2016
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Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10046, s. 761-775
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. We sought to quantify the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for stroke in different regions of the world, and in key populations and primary pathological subtypes of stroke. METHODS: We completed a standardised international case-control study in 32 countries in Asia, America, Europe, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa. Cases were patients with acute first stroke (within 5 days of symptom onset and 72 h of hospital admission). Controls were hospital-based or community-based individuals with no history of stroke, and were matched with cases, recruited in a 1:1 ratio, for age and sex. All participants completed a clinical assessment and were requested to provide blood and urine samples. Odds ratios (OR) and their population attributable risks (PARs) were calculated, with 99% confidence intervals. FINDINGS: Between Jan 11, 2007, and Aug 8, 2015, 26 919 participants were recruited from 32 countries (13 447 cases [10 388 with ischaemic stroke and 3059 intracerebral haemorrhage] and 13 472 controls). Previous history of hypertension or blood pressure of 140/90 mm Hg or higher (OR 2.98, 99% CI 2.72-3.28; PAR 47.9%, 99% CI 45.1-50.6), regular physical activity (0.60, 0.52-0.70; 35.8%, 27.7-44.7), apolipoprotein (Apo)B/ApoA1 ratio (1.84, 1.65-2.06 for highest vs lowest tertile; 26.8%, 22.2-31.9 for top two tertiles vs lowest tertile), diet (0.60, 0.53-0.67 for highest vs lowest tertile of modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index [mAHEI]; 23.2%, 18.2-28.9 for lowest two tertiles vs highest tertile of mAHEI), waist-to-hip ratio (1.44, 1.27-1.64 for highest vs lowest tertile; 18.6%, 13.3-25.3 for top two tertiles vs lowest), psychosocial factors (2.20, 1.78-2.72; 17.4%, 13.1-22.6), current smoking (1.67, 1.49-1.87; 12.4%, 10.2-14.9), cardiac causes (3.17, 2.68-3.75; 9.1%, 8.0-10.2), alcohol consumption (2.09, 1.64-2.67 for high or heavy episodic intake vs never or former drinker; 5.8%, 3.4-9.7 for current alcohol drinker vs never or former drinker), and diabetes mellitus (1.16, 1.05-1.30; 3.9%, 1.9-7.6) were associated with all stroke. Collectively, these risk factors accounted for 90.7% of the PAR for all stroke worldwide (91.5% for ischaemic stroke, 87.1% for intracerebral haemorrhage), and were consistent across regions (ranging from 82.7% in Africa to 97.4% in southeast Asia), sex (90.6% in men and in women), and age groups (92.2% in patients aged 55 years). We observed regional variations in the importance of individual risk factors, which were related to variations in the magnitude of ORs (rather than direction, which we observed for diet) and differences in prevalence of risk factors among regions. Hypertension was more associated with intracerebral haemorrhage than with ischaemic stroke, whereas current smoking, diabetes, apolipoproteins, and cardiac causes were more associated with ischaemic stroke (p<0.0001). INTERPRETATION: Ten potentially modifiable risk factors are collectively associated with about 90% of the PAR of stroke in each major region of the world, among ethnic groups, in men and women, and in all ages. However, we found important regional variations in the relative importance of most individual risk factors for stroke, which could contribute to worldwide variations in frequency and case-mix of stroke. Our findings support developing both global and region-specific programmes to prevent stroke. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Health Research Board Ireland, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, The Health & Medical Care Committee of the Regional Executive Board, Region Vastra Gotaland (Sweden), AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada), Pfizer (Canada), MSD, Chest, Heart and Stroke Scotland, and The Stroke Association, with support from The UK Stroke Research Network.
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| 8. |
- O'Donnell, M., et al.
(författare)
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Variations in knowledge, awareness and treatment of hypertension and stroke risk by country income level
- 2021
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Ingår i: Heart. - : BMJ. - 1355-6037 .- 1468-201X. ; 107:4, s. 282-289
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective Hypertension is the most important modifiable risk factor for stroke globally. We hypothesised that country-income level variations in knowledge, detection and treatment of hypertension may contribute to variations in the association of blood pressure with stroke. Methods We undertook a standardised case-control study in 32 countries (INTERSTROKE). Cases were patients with acute first stroke (n=13 462) who were matched by age, sex and site to controls (n=13 483). We evaluated the associations of knowledge, awareness and treatment of hypertension with risk of stroke and its subtypes and whether this varied by gross national income (GNI) of country. We estimated OR and population attributable risk (PAR) associated with treated and untreated hypertension. Results Hypertension was associated with a graded increase in OR by reducing GNI, ranging from OR 1.92 (99% CI 1.48 to 2.49) to OR 3.27 (2.72 to 3.93) for highest to lowest country-level GNI (p-heterogeneity<0.0001). Untreated hypertension was associated with a higher OR for stroke (OR 5.25; 4.53 to 6.10) than treated hypertension (OR 2.60; 2.32 to 2.91) and younger age of first stroke (61.4 vs 65.4 years; p<0.01). Untreated hypertension was associated with a greater risk of intracerebral haemorrhage (OR 6.95; 5.61 to 8.60) than ischaemic stroke (OR 4.76; 3.99 to 5.68). The PAR associated with untreated hypertension was higher in lower-income regions, PAR 36.3%, 26.3%, 19.8% to 10.4% by increasing GNI of countries. Lifetime non-measurement of blood pressure was associated with stroke (OR 1.80; 1.32 to 2.46). Conclusions Deficits in knowledge, detection and treatment of hypertension contribute to higher risk of stroke, younger age of onset and larger proportion of intracerebral haemorrhage in lower-income countries.
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| 9. |
- Sa'idu, H., et al.
(författare)
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Influence of systolic blood pressure on outcomes in Nigerians with peripartum cardiomyopathy
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nigerian Journal of Clinical Practice. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 1119-3077 .- 2229-7731. ; 25:12, s. 1963-1968
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The relationship between blood pressure (BP) trajectories and outcomes in patients with peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM) is not clear.Aim: The study aimed to assess the clinical features and outcomes (all-cause mortality and unrecovered left ventricular [LV] systolic function) of PPCM patients grouped according to their baseline systolic BP (SBP).Patients and Methods: PPCM patients presenting to 14 tertiary hospitals in Nigeria were consecutively recruited between June 2017 and March 2018 and then followed up till March 2019. SBP at first presentation was used to categorize the patients into seven groups: <90, 90-99, 100-109, 110-119, 120-129, 130-139, and ≥140 mmHg. Unrecovered LV systolic function was defined as echocardiographic LV ejection fraction (LVEF) below 55% at the last profiling.Results: Two hundred and twenty-seven patients were recruited and followed up for a median of 18 months. Of these, 4.0% had <90 mmHg, 16.3% had 90-99 mmHg, 24.7% had 100-109 mmHg, 24.7% had 110-119 mmHg, 18.5% had 120-129 mmHg, 7.5% had 130-139 mmHg, and 4.4% had ≥140 mmHg of SBP at presentation. The highest frequency of all-cause mortality was recorded among patients with SBP ≤90 mmHg (30.8%) followed by those with 90-99 mmHg (20.5%) (P = 0.076), while unrecovered LV systolic function did not differ significantly between the groups (P = 0.659). In a Cox proportional regression model for all-cause mortality, SBP <90 mmHg had a hazard ratio (HR) of 4.00 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49-10.78, P = 0.006), LVEF had an HR of 0.94 (95% CI 0.91-0.98, P = 0.003, B = 0.06%), and use of angiotensin-converting enzyme or angiotensin receptor and/or β-receptor blockers had an HR of 1.71 (95% CI 0.93-3.16, P = 0.085). However, SBP was not associated with LV function recovery.Conclusion: In our cohort of PPCM patients, one-fifth was hypotensive at presentation. SBP <90 mmHg at presentation was associated with a four-fold higher risk of all-cause mortality during a median follow-up of 18 months.
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