| 1. |
- Haga, Chihiro, et al.
(författare)
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Modeling desirable futures at local scale by combining the nature futures framework and multi-objective optimization
- 2023
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Ingår i: Sustainability Science. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-4065 .- 1862-4057.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Envisioning positive scenarios that recognize the multiple values of nature is fundamental for designing transformative changes in local socio-ecological systems. This study developed a protocol with three specifications for operationalizing the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) in a landscape scenario analysis using a multi-objective optimization framework composed of: (1) exploring nature-positive futures, (2) seeking alternative pathways for targets satisfying visions of plural values, and (3) screening key direct drivers to achieve the targets. This research conducted a case study of a rural landscape in northeastern Japan. First, 110 strategies of landscape management options were simulated from 2015 to 2100 using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II. The simulation developed a data frame of four integrated indicators of the NFF values for each year and strategy. Second, nature-positive strategies were screened using the common values. Pareto optimal strategies were then identified to obtain equally good solutions. Finally, the key response options to achieve good nature-positive futures were identified using decision tree analysis. Our protocol identified (1) multiple, but few nature-positive and Pareto optimal strategies that satisfied NFF visions, (2) nature-positive, but not Pareto optimal strategies, and (3) non-nature-positive strategies. In most Pareto optimal strategies, the maximized value perspectives changed over time. Our protocol also identified key response options to achieve three different NFF value perspectives in the case study area: (1) clear or selective cutting in forestry and (2) solar PV installation on abandoned pastureland in agriculture and energy sectors. We discussed the implication for local landscape management, localizing NFF narratives to develop future scenarios and modeling practice of NFF. The protocol does not depend on a specific model and indicator. Thus, our scalable protocol can be applied to scenarios and model practices in any region to support envisioning plausible, feasible, and positive futures, and designing future stakeholder collaboration.
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| 2. |
- Kim, HyeJin, et al.
(författare)
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Towards a better future for biodiversity and people : Modelling Nature Futures
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Environmental Change. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 82
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature - Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature's contributions to people, and quality of life.
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| 3. |
- Paz Duran, América, et al.
(författare)
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Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life : creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures
- 2023
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Ingår i: Sustainability Science. - 1862-4065 .- 1862-4057.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.
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| 4. |
- Pereira, Laura M., et al.
(författare)
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Developing multiscale and integrative nature-people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework
- 2020
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Ingår i: People and Nature. - : Wiley. - 2575-8314. ; 2:4, s. 1172-1195
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals.2. As a first step towards achieving this, the researchers who participated in the scenarios and models expert group of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) entered into an iterative, participatory process that led to the development of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF).3. The NFF is a heuristic tool that captures diverse, positive relationships of humans with nature in the form of a triangle. It can be used both as a boundary object for continuously opening up more plural perspectives in the creation of desirable nature scenarios and as an actionable framework for developing consistent nature scenarios across multiple scales.4. Here we describe the methods employed to develop the NFF and how it fits into a longer term process to create transformative, multiscale scenarios for nature. We argue that the contribution of the NFF is twofold: (a) its ability to hold a plurality of perspectives on what is desirable, which enables the development of joint goals and visions and recognizes the possible convergence and synergies of measures to achieve these visions and (b), its multiscale functionality for elaborating scenarios and models that can inform decision-making at relevant levels, making it applicable across specific places and perspectives on nature.5. If humanity is to achieve its goal of a more sustainable and prosperous future rooted in a flourishing nature, it is critical to open up a space for more plural perspectives of human-nature relationships. As the global community sets out to develop new goals for biodiversity, the NFF can be used as a navigation tool helping to make diverse, desirable futures possible.
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| 5. |
- Sitas, Nadia, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes : experience across IPBES assessments
- 2019
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Ingår i: Ecology & Society. - 1708-3087. ; 24:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments. Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process. Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users. In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives. Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future. These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures.
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