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| 2. |
- Hjalmarsson, Sofia, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Distribution, long-term development and mass balance calculation of total alkalinity in the Baltic Sea
- 2008
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Ingår i: Continental Shelf Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0278-4343. ; 28:4-5, s. 593-601
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- During the 20th century, extensively hydrographic investigations had been performed in the Baltic Sea. One of the parameters that have been determined during these historic investigations of the Baltic Sea is the total alkalinity (AT). In this study, this large data set is used together with a specifically developed box model to estimate the in- and outflows of salinity and AT within the different sub-basins. The Baltic Sea receives large amounts of freshwater through river runoff, and AT can be used as a chemical signature of the runoff as its concentration depends on the mineralogy of the drainage basin. Rivers entering the southern part of the Baltic Sea are draining areas rich in limestone, therefore having higher AT than rivers entering the northern part of the Baltic Sea where granite dominates the bedrock. The mean AT in rivers entering a specific region of the Baltic Sea is achieved by the intercept of the regression line when salinity is plotted versus AT for the corresponding data. In this study, the focus is on the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Bothnia where the longest time series data are available. There is a common trend with an increase in AT in rivers entering the Gulf of Finland and a decrease in AT in rivers entering the Gulf of Bothnia.
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| 3. |
- Ketzel, M., et al.
(författare)
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Estimation and validation of PM2.5/PM10 exhaust and non-exhaust emission factors for practical street pollution modelling
- 2007
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Ingår i: Atmos. Environ.. - : Elsevier BV. ; 41, s. 9370-9385
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to carry out efficient traffic and air quality management, validated models and PM emission estimates are needed. This paper compares current available emission factor estimates for PM10 and PM2.5 from emission databases and different emission models, and validates these against eight high quality street pollution measurements in Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Finland and Austria.The data sets show large variation of the PM concentration and emission factors with season and with location. Consistently at all roads the PM10 and PM2.5 emission factors are lower in the summer month than the rest of the year. For example, PM10 emission factors are in average 5–45% lower during the month 6–10 compared to the annual average.The range of observed total emission factors (including non-exhaust emissions) for the different sites during summer conditions are 80–130 mg km−1 for PM10, 30–60 mg km−1 for PM2.5 and 20–50 mg km−1 for the exhaust emissions.We present two different strategies regarding modelling of PM emissions: (1) For Nordic conditions with strong seasonal variations due to studded tyres and the use of sand/salt as anti-skid treatment a time varying emission model is needed. An empirical model accounting for these Nordic conditions was previously developed in Sweden. (2) For other roads with a less pronounced seasonal variation (e.g. in Denmark, Germany, Austria) methods using a constant emission factor maybe appropriate. Two models are presented here.Further, we apply the different emission models to data sets outside the original countries. For example, we apply the “Swedish” model for two streets without studded tyre usage and the “German” model for Nordic data sets. The “Swedish” empirical model performs best for streets with studded tyre use, but was not able to improve the correlation versus measurements in comparison to using constant emission factors for the Danish side. The “German” method performed well for the streets without clear seasonal variation and reproduces the summer conditions for streets with pronounced seasonal variation. However, the seasonal variation of PM emission factors can be important even for countries not using studded tyres, e.g. in areas with cold weather and snow events using sand and de-icing materials. Here a constant emission factor probably will under-estimate the 90-percentiles and therefore a time varying emission model need to be used or developed for such areas.All emission factor models consistently indicate that a large part (about 50–85% depending on the location) of the total PM10 emissions originates from non-exhaust emissions. This implies that reduction measures for the exhaust part of the vehicle emissions will only have a limited effect on ambient PM10 levels.
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| 4. |
- Meier, H. E. Markus, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of Eutrophication Abatement Scenarios for the Baltic Sea by Multi-Model Ensemble Simulations
- 2018
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-7745. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To assess the impact of the implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) on the future environmental status of the Baltic Sea, available uncoordinated multi-model ensemble simulations for the Baltic Sea region for the twenty-first century were analyzed. The scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data using several regional climate system models and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and river-borne nutrient load scenarios following either reference conditions or the BSAP. To estimate uncertainties in projections, the largest ever multi-model ensemble for the Baltic Sea comprising 58 transient simulations for the twenty-first century was assessed. Data from already existing simulations from different projects including regionalized GCM simulations of the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change based on the corresponding Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects, CMIP3 and CMIP5, were collected.Various strategies to weigh the ensemble members were tested and the results for ensemble mean changes between future and present climates are shown to be robust with respect to the chosen metric. Although (1) the model simulations during the historical period are of different quality and (2) the assumptions on nutrient load levels during present and future periods differ between models considerably, the ensemble mean changes in biogeochemical variables in the Baltic proper with respect to nutrient load reductions are similar between the entire ensemble and a subset consisting only of the most reliable simulations.Despite the large spread in projections, the implementation of the BSAP will lead to a significant improvement of the environmental status of the Baltic Sea according to both weighted and unweighted ensembles. The results emphasize the need for investigating ensembles with many members and rigorous assessments of models’ performance.
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| 5. |
- Meier, H. E. Markus, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea
- 2019
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-7745. ; 6
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Following earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin and the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment, knowledge acquired from available literature about future scenario simulations of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and their uncertainties is assessed. The identification and reduction of uncertainties of scenario simulations are issues for marine management. For instance, it is important to know whether nutrient load abatement will meet its objectives of restored water quality status in future climate or whether additional measures are required. However, uncertainties are large and their sources need to be understood to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of measures. The assessment of sources of uncertainties in projections of biogeochemical cycles based on authors' own expert judgment suggests that the biggest uncertainties are caused by (1) unknown current and future bioavailable nutrient loads from land and atmosphere, (2) the experimental setup (including the spin up strategy), (3) differences between the projections of global and regional climate models, in particular, with respect to the global mean sea level rise and regional water cycle, (4) differing model-specific responses of the simulated biogeochemical cycles to long-term changes in external nutrient loads and climate of the Baltic Sea region, and (5) unknown future greenhouse gas emissions. Regular assessments of the models' skill (or quality compared to observations) for the Baltic Sea region and the spread in scenario simulations (differences among projected changes) as well as improvement of dynamical downscaling methods are recommended.
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| 6. |
- Omstedt, Anders, 1949, et al.
(författare)
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Factors influencing the acid–base (pH) balance in the Baltic Sea: a sensitivity analysis
- 2010
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Ingår i: Tellus B. - : Stockholm University Press. - 0280-6509 .- 1600-0889. ; 62:4, s. 280-295
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using calculations based on the marine carbon system and on modelling, the sensitivity of Baltic Sea surface pH was examined. Transient long-term calculations demonstrated that the marine carbon system adjusts to lateral boundary conditions within some decades, as does salinity. Climate changes in temperature or salinity will only marginally affect the acid–base (pH) balance. Wetter or dryer climate will also play a minor role in the pH balance. The direct effect on seawater pH of acid precipitation over the Baltic Sea surface was demonstrated to be small. Acidification due to river transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into the marine system seems marginal although mineralization of terrestrial DOC may cause extra marine acidification, but the effect has yet to be quantified. Increased nutrient load may increase the amplitude in the pH seasonal cycle and increase the acidification during winter time. Fossil fuel burning is likely to have both a direct and indirect effect through increased CO2 levels, altering seawater pH as well as changing the river chemistry. This may severely threaten some species in the Baltic Sea, particularly in the Northern Baltic.
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| 9. |
- Reckermann, M., et al.
(författare)
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Human impacts and their interactions in the Baltic Sea region
- 2022
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Ingår i: Earth Syst. Dynam.. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4987 .- 2190-4979. ; 13:1, s. 1-80
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coastal environments, in particular heavily populated semi-enclosed marginal seas and coasts like the Baltic Sea region, are strongly affected by human activities. A multitude of human impacts, including climate change, affect the different compartments of the environment, and these effects interact with each other. As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region, and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities (i.e. climate change, coastal processes, hypoxia, acidification, submarine groundwater discharges, marine ecosystems, non-indigenous species, land use and land cover), some are completely human-induced (i.e. agriculture, aquaculture, fisheries, river regulations, offshore wind farms, shipping, chemical contamination, dumped warfare agents, marine litter and microplastics, tourism, and coastal management), and they are all interrelated to different degrees. We present a general description and analysis of the state of knowledge on these interrelations. Our main insight is that climate change has an overarching, integrating impact on all of the other factors and can be interpreted as a background effect, which has different implications for the other factors. Impacts on the environment and the human sphere can be roughly allocated to anthropogenic drivers such as food production, energy production, transport, industry and economy. The findings from this inventory of available information and analysis of the different factors and their interactions in the Baltic Sea region can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
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