| 1. |
- Bazilian, Morgan, et al.
(författare)
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Energy access scenarios to 2030 for the power sector in sub-Saharan Africa
- 2012
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Ingår i: Utilities Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0957-1787 .- 1878-4356. ; 20:1, s. 1-16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several 'high-level', transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required - one aspect of the many inputs required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access - even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.
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| 2. |
- Grubler, Arnulf, et al.
(författare)
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Energy Primer
- 2012
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Ingår i: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future. - 9781107005198 ; , s. 99-150
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Mainali, Brijesh, Dr, 1972-, et al.
(författare)
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Analyzing cooking fuel and stove choices in China till 2030
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy. - : American Institute of Physics (AIP). - 1941-7012. ; 4:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many people in China still burn low grade solid fuels in traditional stoves to meet their cooking and heating energy demands. This results in significant pollution, affecting the health of especially women and children who are exposed most. The mode of energy consumption and types of stoves in use may change with increasing prosperity. Product specific and socio-economic parameters also influence these choices. We analyze cooking fuel and stove choices in China. Choices are modeled to depend on standard economic variables such as income, technology costs, and fuel prices, along with some variables unique to the developing country setting such as inconvenience costs. Our analysis shows that 24% of the rural and 17% of the urban population will still depend on solid fuels in 2030 under a business as usual scenario. Various policy scenarios that can accelerate transition to modern fuels by 2030 are also analyzed in this paper and their costs, energy, emissions and health impacts assessed.
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| 4. |
- Mainali, Brijesh, 1972-, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing rural energy sustainability in developing countries
- 2014
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Ingår i: Energy for Sustainable Development. - Amsterdam : Elsevier BV. - 0973-0826 .- 2352-4669. ; 19:1, s. 15-28
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Providing sustainable energy access is one of the most critical global challenges. This paper introduces a method for evaluating the status and progress of rural household energy sustainability in developing countries using a new composite indicator, the energy sustainability index (ESI). The ESI combines 13 techno-economic, environmental and social indicators of sustainability using principal component analysis (PCA). We apply the ES! to China, India, South Africa, Sri-Lanka, Bangladesh and Ghana between 1990 and 2010. The analysis suggests that South Africa's rural energy sustainability index is highest followed by China, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh and Ghana respectively. All the countries' rural energy sustainability has improved relatively over time except Ghana's. Improvements result mainly from increasing rural electricity use and increasing access to clean and efficient cooking fuels.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Peña Balderrama, Jenny Gabriela, 1990-
(författare)
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Exploring low-carbon development pathways for Bolivia - A model-based analysis focused on the energy sector
- 2020
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Global emissions have continued to rise steadily at levels exceeding the 1.5°C climate stabilization target. Therefore, the increase in the average global temperature and climate change will be determined by how we handle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next years. Decarbonizing economic growth and development add pressure to all countries in the world, but even more pressure to low and middle-income countries planning to use their fossil fuel resources as a ‘leading sector’ to achieve growth. Low and middle-income countries have limited financial resources and often have to prioritize short-term development goals with immediate local co-benefits over mitigation and adaptation strategies with long-term gains. Reaching the climate stabilization/decarbonization goal will require large investments to decarbonize the energy sector, together with investments and policy measures to ensure resilience and adaptation to climate change.Bolivia has signaled its intent to eradicate poverty and achieve economic growth while preserving environmental sustainability by adopting the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In line with SDG7, Bolivia aims to achieve universal access to electricity by 2025. Although electricity access has improved significantly with large investments in grid-extension and decentralized systems, currently 61% of the grid generation capacity and 93% of the decentralized generation capacity is fossil-fueled. Other sectors, such as the transport sector, depend mostly on fossil fuels and largely contribute to Bolivia’s GHG emissions. Policies intended to increase energy security in Bolivia focus on the increased use of domestic natural gas, on investments in large-scale hydropower plants, and on first-generation (1G) biofuel production for the transport sector.In line with SDG 7 and SDG 13, this doctoral thesis examines low-carbon development pathways for the main policies addressing energy access and energy security in Bolivia. With methods deriving from systems analysis, the particulars of the Bolivian energy system were scrutinized and the effects of alternative energy planning decisions ‒ such as policies and investments ‒ displayed using scenario analysis. Five research articles answering four research questions form the main part of the thesis.The first research question examines the role of decentralized technologies (primarily micro-grids) and renewable energy for addressing universal electricity access targets. The cost-competitiveness of multi-source micro-grids is assessed using an innovative methodology developed to increase the technical accuracy of load simulation and microgrid system design optimization in an existing geospatial modelling tool. The results highlight the potential of decentralized electrification solutions and identify the location, size and investments required to meet electrification targets in 2025.The second research question focuses on evaluating alternative policies for decarbonizing the power generation sector using an energy system optimization model. The combined effects of inserting carbon taxes and modifying the weighted average cost of capital on the power generation emissions are measured in marginal abatement cost curves. Results from this conceptual and numerical analysis show that a deep decarbonization of the power generation system requires very high carbon prices if the costs of capital are high. Instead, moderate carbon prices combined with low costs of capital can lead to significant emissions reductions and comparably smaller increases in carbon abatement costs.The third research question examines Bolivia’s hydroelectricity export plans in the medium-term using a cost-optimization model of South America. The study also evaluates the fair distribution of benefits using a cooperative game-theory approach and the decarbonization achieved in a scenario of power systems integration in South America. Results of this study indicate that electricity from large-scale hydropower projects could be traded with Brazil and reduce Bolivia’s dependence on natural gas for power generation. The results also show that Bolivia has less bargaining power than its competitors have in the long-term and benefits less from emissions reductions in a scenario of trade with Brazil.Lastly, the fourth research question explores energy security in the transport sector by assessing Bolivia’s sugarcane-based ethanol production targets. Increased sustainability in the ethanol production chain is evaluated quantitatively by identifying opportunities for agricultural intensification and investments in advanced biorefineries in a least-cost optimization model. Results from this analysis demonstrate that Bolivia can cost-effectively reach its medium-term targeted volumes of ethanol production with a moderate expansion of sugarcane cropland and investments in agriculture intensification. The results further suggest that it is cost-optimal to invest in current technological advances (i.e. efficient co-generation plants) to maximize the renewable energy output and the economic benefits of sugarcane-derived ethanol. Finally, the study identifies a range of biofuel-support incentives to promote investments in second-generation biofuel production.
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| 7. |
- Riva, Fabio, et al.
(författare)
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Electricity access and rural development: Review of complex socio-economic dynamics and casual diagrams for more appropriate energy modelling
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy for Sustainable Development. - : Elsevier BV. - 2352-4669 .- 0973-0826. ; 43, s. 203-223
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The causal relationships between electrification and development of poor, rural communities are complex and contextual. The existing literature focuses mainly on the impact of rural electrification and electricity use on local socio-economic development, while the reverse feedbacks of various social and economic changes on electricity demand and supply have not been fully characterized. Most electricity access impact assessments assume linear, one-way effects and linear growth in electricity demand. However, the projections rarely match the reality, creating challenges for rural utilities. From a modelling perspective, the lack of attention to dynamic complexities of the electricity-development nexus prevents the appropriate modelling of electricity demand over time and, hence, informed planning for and sizing of power plants. With the goal to improve modelling of the electricity-development nexus, we undertake a comprehensive review and extensive analysis of the peer-reviewed literature on electricity access and its impact on rural socio-economic development, and vice versa. We characterize and describe the nexus between electricity access and development through graphical casual diagrams that allow us to capture, visualise and discuss the complexity and feedback loops. Based on this, we suggest guidelines for developing appropriate models able to include and simulate such complexities. Our analysis confirms that electricity use is interconnected through complex casual relations with multiple dimensions of socio-economic development, viz. income generating activities, market production and revenues, household economy, local health and population, education, and habits and social networks. The casual diagrams can be seen as a first step of the conceptualization phase of model building, which aims at describing and understanding the structure of a system. The presence of multiple uncertain parameters and complex diffusion mechanisms that describe the complex system under analysis suggests that systems-dynamic simulations can allow modelling such complex and dynamic relations, as well as dealing with the high uncertainties at stake, especially when coupled with stochastic approaches.
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