| 1. |
- Mcteer, Matthew, et al.
(författare)
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Machine learning approaches to enhance diagnosis and staging of patients with MASLD using routinely available clinical information
- 2024
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. - 1932-6203. ; 19:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims Metabolic dysfunction Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD) outcomes such as MASH (metabolic dysfunction associated steatohepatitis), fibrosis and cirrhosis are ordinarily determined by resource-intensive and invasive biopsies. We aim to show that routine clinical tests offer sufficient information to predict these endpoints.Methods Using the LITMUS Metacohort derived from the European NAFLD Registry, the largest MASLD dataset in Europe, we create three combinations of features which vary in degree of procurement including a 19-variable feature set that are attained through a routine clinical appointment or blood test. This data was used to train predictive models using supervised machine learning (ML) algorithm XGBoost, alongside missing imputation technique MICE and class balancing algorithm SMOTE. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were added to determine relative importance for each clinical variable.Results Analysing nine biopsy-derived MASLD outcomes of cohort size ranging between 5385 and 6673 subjects, we were able to predict individuals at training set AUCs ranging from 0.719-0.994, including classifying individuals who are At-Risk MASH at an AUC = 0.899. Using two further feature combinations of 26-variables and 35-variables, which included composite scores known to be good indicators for MASLD endpoints and advanced specialist tests, we found predictive performance did not sufficiently improve. We are also able to present local and global explanations for each ML model, offering clinicians interpretability without the expense of worsening predictive performance.Conclusions This study developed a series of ML models of accuracy ranging from 71.9-99.4% using only easily extractable and readily available information in predicting MASLD outcomes which are usually determined through highly invasive means.
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| 2. |
- Mozes, Ferenc E., et al.
(författare)
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Performance of non-invasive tests and histology for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2023
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Ingår i: The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : ELSEVIER INC. - 2468-1253. ; 8:8, s. 704-713
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Histologically assessed liver fibrosis stage has prognostic significance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Our aim was to compare the prognostic performance of non-invasive tests with liver histology in patients with NAFLD. Methods This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0-4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score >= 15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0-2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: <10 vs 10 to <20 vs >= 20 kPa; FIB-4: <1<middle dot>3 vs 1<middle dot>3 to <= 2<middle dot>67 vs >2<middle dot>67; NFS: <-1<middle dot>455 vs -1<middle dot>455 to <= 0<middle dot>676 vs >0<middle dot>676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226.Findings Of 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44<middle dot>7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44-63), and 1161 [46<middle dot>1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33-91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5<middle dot>8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0<middle dot>0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0<middle dot>72 (95% CI 0<middle dot>62-0<middle dot>81) for histology, 0<middle dot>76 (0<middle dot>70-0<middle dot>83) for LSM-VCTE, 0<middle dot>74 (0<middle dot>64-0<middle dot>82) for FIB-4, and 0<middle dot>70 (0<middle dot>63-0<middle dot>80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression.Interpretation Simple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases.
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| 3. |
- Pavlides, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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Liver investigation: Testing marker utility in steatohepatitis (LITMUS): Assessment & validation of imaging modality performance across the NAFLD spectrum in a prospectively recruited cohort study (the LITMUS imaging study): Study protocol
- 2023
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Ingår i: Contemporary Clinical Trials. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 1551-7144 .- 1559-2030. ; 134
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the liver manifestation of the metabolic syndrome with global prevalence reaching epidemic levels. Despite the high disease burden in the population only a small proportion of those with NAFLD will develop progressive liver disease, for which there is currently no approved pharmacotherapy. Identifying those who are at risk of progressive NAFLD currently requires a liver biopsy which is problematic. Firstly, liver biopsy is invasive and therefore not appropriate for use in a condition like NAFLD that affects a large proportion of the population. Secondly, biopsy is limited by sampling and observer dependent variability which can lead to misclassification of disease severity. Non-invasive biomarkers are therefore needed to replace liver biopsy in the assessment of NAFLD. Our study addresses this unmet need. The LITMUS Imaging Study is a prospectively recruited multi-centre cohort study evaluating magnetic resonance imaging and elastography, and ultrasound elastography against liver histology as the reference standard. Imaging biomarkers and biopsy are acquired within a 100-day window. The study employs standardised processes for imaging data collection and analysis as well as a real time central monitoring and quality control process for all the data submitted for analysis. It is anticipated that the high-quality data generated from this study will underpin changes in clinical practice for the benefit of people with NAFLD. Study Registration: clinicaltrials.gov: NCT05479721
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Lee, Jenny, et al.
(författare)
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Machine learning algorithm improves the detection of NASH (NAS-based) and at-risk NASH: A development and validation study
- 2023
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Ingår i: Hepatology. - : LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS. - 0270-9139 .- 1527-3350. ; 78:1, s. 258-271
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and Aims: Detecting NASH remains challenging, while at-risk NASH (steatohepatitis and F >= 2) tends to progress and is of interest for drug development and clinical application. We developed prediction models by supervised machine learning techniques, with clinical data and biomarkers to stage and grade patients with NAFLD. Approach and Results: Learning data were collected in the Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis metacohort (966 biopsy-proven NAFLD adults), staged and graded according to NASH CRN. Conditions of interest were the clinical trial definition of NASH (NAS >= 4;53%), at-risk NASH (NASH with F >= 2;35%), significant (F >= 2;47%), and advanced fibrosis (F >= 3;28%). Thirty-five predictors were included. Missing data were handled by multiple imputations. Data were randomly split into training/validation (75/25) sets. A gradient boosting machine was applied to develop 2 models for each condition: clinical versus extended (clinical and biomarkers). Two variants of the NASH and at-risk NASH models were constructed: direct and composite models.Clinical gradient boosting machine models for steatosis/inflammation/ballooning had AUCs of 0.94/0.79/0.72. There were no improvements when biomarkers were included. The direct NASH model produced AUCs (clinical/extended) of 0.61/0.65. The composite NASH model performed significantly better (0.71) for both variants. The composite at-risk NASH model had an AUC of 0.83 (clinical and extended), an improvement over the direct model. Significant fibrosis models had AUCs (clinical/extended) of 0.76/0.78. The extended advanced fibrosis model (0.86) performed significantly better than the clinical version (0.82). Conclusions: Detection of NASH and at-risk NASH can be improved by constructing independent machine learning models for each component, using only clinical predictors. Adding biomarkers only improved the accuracy of fibrosis.
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| 6. |
- Liang, Jia-xu, et al.
(författare)
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An individual patient data meta-analysis to determine cut-offs for and confounders of NAFLD-fibrosis staging with magnetic resonance elastography
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Hepatology. - : Elsevier. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 79:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background & Aims: We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis to establish stiffness cut-off values for magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) in staging liver fibrosis and to assess potential confounding factors. Methods: A systematic review of the literature identified studies reporting MRE data in patients with NAFLD. Data were obtained from the corresponding authors. The pooled diagnostic cut-off value for the various fibrosis stages was determined in a two-stage meta-analysis. Multilevel modelling methods were used to analyse potential confounding factors influencing the diagnostic accuracy of MRE in staging liver fibrosis. Results: Eight independent cohorts comprising 798 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for MRE in detecting significant fibrosis was 0.92 (sensitivity, 79%; specificity, 89%). For advanced fibrosis, the AUROC was 0.92 (sensitivity, 87%; specificity, 88%). For cirrhosis, the AUROC was 0.94 (sensitivity, 88%, specificity, 89%). Cut-offs were defined to explore concordance between MRE and histopathology: 0.05) and high gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) concentration ( 120U/L) (odds ratio 3.388, 95% CI 1.577- 7.278, p <0.01] were significantly associated with elevated liver stiffness, and thus affecting accuracy in staging early fibrosis (F0-F1). Steatosis, as measured by magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction, and body mass index(BMI) were not confounders. Conclusions: MRE has excellent diagnostic performance for significant, advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with NAFLD. Elevated inflammatory activity and GGT level may lead to overestimation of early liver fibrosis, but anthropometric measures such as BMI or the degree of steatosis do not. <(c)> 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Association for the Study of the Liver. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
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| 7. |
- Mózes, Ferenc Emil, et al.
(författare)
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Diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive tests for advanced fibrosis in patients with NAFLD : an individual patient data meta-analysis
- 2022
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Ingår i: Gut. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0017-5749 .- 1468-3288. ; 71:5, s. 1006-1019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: Liver biopsy is still needed for fibrosis staging in many patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The aims of this study were to evaluate the individual diagnostic performance of liver stiffness measurement by vibration controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) and NAFLD (non-alcoholic fatty liver disease) Fibrosis Score (NFS) and to derive diagnostic strategies that could reduce the need for liver biopsies.DESIGN: Individual patient data meta-analysis of studies evaluating LSM-VCTE against liver histology was conducted. FIB-4 and NFS were computed where possible. Sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) were calculated. Biomarkers were assessed individually and in sequential combinations.RESULTS: Data were included from 37 primary studies (n=5735; 45% women; median age: 54 years; median body mass index: 30 kg/m2; 33% had type 2 diabetes; 30% had advanced fibrosis). AUROCs of individual LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS for advanced fibrosis were 0.85, 0.76 and 0.73. Sequential combination of FIB-4 cut-offs (<1.3; ≥2.67) followed by LSM-VCTE cut-offs (<8.0; ≥10.0 kPa) to rule-in or rule-out advanced fibrosis had sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) of 66% (63-68) and 86% (84-87) with 33% needing a biopsy to establish a final diagnosis. FIB-4 cut-offs (<1.3; ≥3.48) followed by LSM cut-offs (<8.0; ≥20.0 kPa) to rule out advanced fibrosis or rule in cirrhosis had a sensitivity of 38% (37-39) and specificity of 90% (89-91) with 19% needing biopsy.CONCLUSION: Sequential combinations of markers with a lower cut-off to rule-out advanced fibrosis and a higher cut-off to rule-in cirrhosis can reduce the need for liver biopsies.
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| 8. |
- Selvaraj, Emmanuel Anandraj, et al.
(författare)
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Diagnostic accuracy of elastography and magnetic resonance imaging in patients with NAFLD : a systematic review and meta-analysis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Hepatology. - : Elsevier. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 75:4, s. 770-785
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), point shear wave elastography (pSWE), two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2DSWE), magnetic resonance elastography (MRE), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are proposed as non-invasive tests for patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). This study evaluated their diagnostic accuracy for liver fibrosis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).METHODS: PubMED/MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library were searched for studies examining the diagnostic accuracy of these index tests against histology as the reference standard, in adult patients with NAFLD. Two authors independently screened and assessed methodological quality of studies and extracted data. Summary estimates of sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve (sAUC) were calculated for fibrosis stages and NASH, using a random effects bivariate logit-normal model.RESULTS: We included 82 studies (14,609 patients). Meta-analysis for diagnosing fibrosis stages was possible in 53 VCTE, 11 MRE, 12 pSWE and four 2DSWE studies, and for diagnosing NASH in four MRE studies. sAUC for diagnosis of significant fibrosis were: 0.83 for VCTE, 0.91 for MRE, 0.86 for pSWE and 0.75 for 2DSWE. sAUC for diagnosis of advanced fibrosis were: 0.85 for VCTE, 0.92 for MRE, 0.89 for pSWE and 0.72 for 2DSWE. sAUC for diagnosis of cirrhosis were: 0.89 for VCTE, 0.90 for MRE, 0.90 for pSWE and 0.88 for 2DSWE. MRE had sAUC of 0.83 for diagnosis of NASH. Three (4%) studies reported intention-to-diagnose analyses and 15 (18%) studies reported diagnostic accuracy against pre-specified cut-offs.CONCLUSIONS: When elastography index tests are acquired successfully, they have acceptable diagnostic accuracy for advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. The potential clinical impact of these index tests cannot be assessed fully as intention-to-diagnose analyses and validation of pre-specified thresholds are lacking.LAY SUMMARY: Non-invasive tests that measure liver stiffness or use magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) have been suggested as alternatives to liver biopsy in assessing the severity of liver scarring (fibrosis) and fatty inflammation (steatohepatitis) in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). In this study, we summarise the results of previously published studies on how accurately these non-invasive tests can diagnose liver fibrosis and inflammation, using liver biopsy as the reference. We found that some techniques that measure liver stiffness had a good performance for the diagnosis of severe liver scarring.
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| 9. |
- Vali, Yasaman, et al.
(författare)
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Biomarkers for staging fibrosis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (the LITMUS project) : a comparative diagnostic accuracy study
- 2023
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Ingår i: The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 2468-1253. ; 8:8, s. 714-725
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The reference standard for detecting non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and staging fibrosis—liver biopsy—is invasive and resource intensive. Non-invasive biomarkers are urgently needed, but few studies have compared these biomarkers in a single cohort. As part of the Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis (LITMUS) project, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of 17 biomarkers and multimarker scores in detecting NASH and clinically significant fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and identify their optimal cutoffs as screening tests in clinical trial recruitment. Methods: This was a comparative diagnostic accuracy study in people with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD from 13 countries across Europe, recruited between Jan 6, 2010, and Dec 29, 2017, from the LITMUS metacohort of the prospective European NAFLD Registry. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with paired liver biopsy and serum samples were eligible; those with excessive alcohol consumption or evidence of other chronic liver diseases were excluded. The diagnostic accuracy of the biomarkers was expressed as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with liver histology as the reference standard and compared with the Fibrosis-4 index for liver fibrosis (FIB-4) in the same subgroup. Target conditions were the presence of NASH with clinically significant fibrosis (ie, at-risk NASH; NAFLD Activity Score ≥4 and F≥2) or the presence of advanced fibrosis (F≥3), analysed in all participants with complete data. We identified thres holds for each biomarker for reducing the number of biopsy-based screen failures when recruiting people with both NASH and clinically significant fibrosis for future trials. Findings: Of 1430 participants with NAFLD in the LITMUS metacohort with serum samples, 966 (403 women and 563 men) were included after all exclusion criteria had been applied. 335 (35%) of 966 participants had biopsy-confirmed NASH and clinically significant fibrosis and 271 (28%) had advanced fibrosis. For people with NASH and clinically significant fibrosis, no single biomarker or multimarker score significantly reached the predefined AUC 0·80 acceptability threshold (AUCs ranging from 0·61 [95% CI 0·54–0·67] for FibroScan controlled attenuation parameter to 0·81 [0·75–0·86] for SomaSignal), with accuracy mostly similar to FIB-4. Regarding detection of advanced fibrosis, SomaSignal (AUC 0·90 [95% CI 0·86–0·94]), ADAPT (0·85 [0·81–0·89]), and FibroScan liver stiffness measurement (0·83 [0·80–0·86]) reached acceptable accuracy. With 11 of 17 markers, histological screen failure rates could be reduced to 33% in trials if only people who were marker positive had a biopsy for evaluating eligibility. The best screening performance for NASH and clinically significant fibrosis was observed for SomaSignal (number needed to test [NNT] to find one true positive was four [95% CI 4–5]), then ADAPT (six [5–7]), MACK-3 (seven [6–8]), and PRO-C3 (nine [7–11]). Interpretation: None of the single markers or multimarker scores achieved the predefined acceptable AUC for replacing biopsy in detecting people with both NASH and clinically significant fibrosis. However, several biomarkers could be applied in a prescreening strategy in clinical trial recruitment. The performance of promising markers will be further evaluated in the ongoing prospective LITMUS study cohort. Funding: The Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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| 10. |
- Vali, Yasaman, et al.
(författare)
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Enhanced liver fibrosis test for the non-invasive diagnosis of fibrosis in patients with NAFLD : A systematic review and meta-analysis
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Hepatology. - : Elsevier. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 73:2, s. 252-262
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test is a non-invasive biomarker, suggested as an appropriate test for advanced liver fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). This systematic review aimed to provide summary estimates of the accuracy of this test against biopsy.METHODS: In this systematic review, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library, for studies included NAFLD patients and undertook both liver biopsy as the reference standard and the ELF test. Two authors independently screened the references, extracted the data and assessed the quality of included studies. Due to the variation in reported thresholds, we used a multiple thresholds random effects model for meta-analysis (diagmeta R-package).RESULTS: The meta-analysis of 11 studies reporting advanced fibrosis and five studies reporting significant fibrosis showed sensitivity of >0.90 of the ELF test for excluding fibrosis at threshold of 7.7. However, as a diagnostic test at high thresholds, the test showed specificity and positive predictive value >0.80, only in very high-prevalence settings (>50%). Desiring specificity of 0.90 for advanced and significant fibrosis resulted in thresholds of 10.18 (sensitivity: 0.57) and 9.86 (sensitivity: 0.55), respectively.CONCLUSION: The ELF test showed high sensitivity but limited specificity to exclude advanced and significant fibrosis at low cutoffs. The diagnostic performance of the test at higher thresholds was found to be more limited in low prevalence settings. We conclude that clinicians should carefully consider the likely disease prevalence in their practice setting and adopt suitable test thresholds to achieve the desired test performance.
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