| 1. |
- Bradter, Ute, et al.
(författare)
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Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains
- 2022
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 28:21, s. 6209-6227
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under “space-for-time substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996–2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.
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| 2. |
- Fox, Anthony D., et al.
(författare)
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Current and potential threats to Nordic duck populations - a horizon scanning exercise
- 2015
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Ingår i: Annales Zoologici Fennici. - 0003-455X .- 1797-2450. ; 52:4, s. 193-220
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We review the current and future threats to duck populations that breed, stage, moult and/or winter in the Nordic countries. Migratory duck species are sensitive indicators of their changing environment, and their societal value confirms the need to translate signals from changes in their distribution, status and abundance into a better understanding of changes occurring in their wetland environments. We used expert opinion to highlight 25 major areas of anthropogenic change (and touch briefly on potential mitigation measures through nature restoration and reserve management projects) that we consider key issues likely to influence Nordic duck populations now and in the near future to stimulate debate, discussion and further research. We believe such reviews are essential in contributing to development of successful management policy as well as stimulating specific research to support the maintenance of duck species in favourable future conservation status in the face of multiple population pressures and drivers.
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| 3. |
- Fox, Anthony D., et al.
(författare)
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Current and potential threats to Nordic duck populations - a horizon scanning exercise
- 2015
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Ingår i: Annales Zoologici Fennici. - : Finnish Zoological and Botanical Publishing Board. - 0003-455X. ; 52:4, s. 193-220
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We review the current and future threats to duck populations that breed, stage, moult and/or winter in the Nordic countries. Migratory duck species are sensitive indicators of their changing environment, and their societal value confirms the need to translate signals from changes in their distribution, status and abundance into a better understanding of changes occurring in their wetland environments. We used expert opinion to highlight 25 major areas of anthropogenic change (and touch briefly on potential mitigation measures through nature restoration and reserve management projects) that we consider key issues likely to influence Nordic duck populations now and in the near future to stimulate debate, discussion and further research. We believe such reviews are essential in contributing to development of successful management policy as well as stimulating specific research to support the maintenance of duck species in favourable future conservation status in the face of multiple population pressures and drivers.
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| 4. |
- Gaget, Elie, et al.
(författare)
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Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming
- 2021
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Ingår i: Conservation Biology. - : Wiley. - 0888-8892 .- 1523-1739. ; 35:3, s. 834-845
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so-called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization-extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm-dwelling species or extirpation of cold-dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTISD). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTISD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTISD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization-extirpation patterns driven by climate warming.
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| 5. |
- Gaget, Elie, et al.
(författare)
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Protected area characteristics that help waterbirds respond to climate warming
- 2022
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Ingår i: Conservation Biology. - : Wiley. - 0888-8892 .- 1523-1739. ; 36:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Protected area networks help species respond to climate warming. However, the contribution of a site's environmental and conservation-relevant characteristics to these responses is not well understood. We investigated how composition of nonbreeding waterbird communities (97 species) in the European Union Natura 2000 (N2K) network (3018 sites) changed in response to increases in temperature over 25 years in 26 European countries. We measured community reshuffling based on abundance time series collected under the International Waterbird Census relative to N2K sites’ conservation targets, funding, designation period, and management plan status. Waterbird community composition in sites explicitly designated to protect them and with management plans changed more quickly in response to climate warming than in other N2K sites. Temporal community changes were not affected by the designation period despite greater exposure to temperature increase inside late-designated N2K sites. Sites funded under the LIFE program had lower climate-driven community changes than sites that did not received LIFE funding. Our findings imply that efficient conservation policy that helps waterbird communities respond to climate warming is associated with sites specifically managed for waterbirds.
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| 6. |
- Pavon-Jordan, Diego, et al.
(författare)
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Climate-driven changes in winter abundance of a migratory waterbird in relation to EU protected areas
- 2015
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Ingår i: Diversity and Distributions. - : Wiley. - 1366-9516. ; 21:5, s. 571-582
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AimSpecies are responding to climate change by changing their distributions, creating debate about the effectiveness of existing networks of protected areas. As a contribution to this debate, we assess whether regional winter abundances and distribution of the Smew Mergellus albellus, a migratory waterbird species listed on Annex I (EU Birds Directive) that overwinters exclusively in European wetlands, changed during 1990-2011, the role of global warming in driving distributional changes and the effectiveness of the network of Special Protection Areas (SPAs, EU Birds Directive) in the context of climate change. LocationEurope. MethodsWe used site-specific counts (6,883 sites) from 16 countries covering the entire flyway to estimate annual abundance indices and trends at country, region (north-eastern, central and south-western) and flyway scales, inside and outside SPAs. We fitted autoregressive models to assess the effect of winter temperature on the annual abundance indices whilst accounting for autocorrelation. ResultsThe Smew wintering distribution shifted north-eastwards in Europe in accordance with the predictions of global warming, with increasing numbers in the north-eastern region and declines in the central region. Trends in wintering numbers were more positive in SPAs on the north-eastern and south-western part of the flyway. However, a large proportion of the wintering population remains unprotected in north-eastern areas outside of the existing SPA network. Main conclusionsSPAs accommodated climate-driven abundance changes in the north-eastern region of the wintering distribution by supporting increasing numbers of Smew in traditional and newly colonized areas. However, we highlight gaps in the current network, suggesting that urgent policy responses are needed. Given rapid changes in species distributions, we urge regular national and international assessments of the adequacy of the EU Natura 2000 network to ensure coherence in site-safeguard networks for this and other species.
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| 7. |
- Pavon-Jordan, Diego, et al.
(författare)
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Environmental correlates of annual survival differ between two ecologically similar and congeneric owls
- 2013
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Ingår i: Ibis. - : Wiley. - 0019-1019. ; 155:4, s. 823-834
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding how survival is affected by the environment is essential to gain insight into population dynamics and the evolution of life-history traits as well as to identify environmental selection pressures. However, we still have little understanding of the relative effect of different environmental factors and their interactions on demographic traits and population dynamics. Here we used two long-term, individual-based datasets on Tawny Owl Strix aluco (1981-2010) and Ural Owl S.uralensis (1986-2010) to undertake capture-mark-recapture analysis of annual survival of adult females in response to three biologically meaningful environmental variables and their two-way interactions. Despite the similar ecology of these two species, their survival was associated with different and uncorrelated environmental drivers. The main correlate of Tawny Owl survival was an inverse association with snow depth (winter severity). For Ural Owl, high food (vole) abundance improved survival during years with deep snow, but was less important during years with little snow. In addition, Ural Owl survival was strongly density-dependent, whereas Tawny Owl survival was not. Our findings advise caution in extrapolating demographic inferences from one species to another, even when they are very closely related and ecologically similar. Analyses including only one or few potential environmental drivers of a species' survival may lead to incomplete conclusions because survival may be affected by several factors and their interactions.
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| 8. |
- Pavón-Jordán, Diego, et al.
(författare)
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Habitat- and species-mediated short- and long-term distributional changes in waterbird abundance linked to variation in European winter weather
- 2019
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Ingår i: Diversity and Distributions. - : Wiley. - 1366-9516. ; 25:2, s. 225-239
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: Many species are showing distribution shifts in response to environmental change. We explored (a) the effects of inter-annual variation in winter weather conditions on non-breeding distributional abundance of waterbirds exploiting different habitats (deep-water, shallow water, farmland) and (b) the long-term shift in the population centroid of these species and investigate its link to changes in weather conditions. Location: Europe. Methods: We fitted generalized additive mixed Models to a large-scale, 24-year dataset (1990–2013) describing the winter distributional abundance of 25 waterbird species. We calculated the annual and long-term (3-year periods) population centroid of each species and used the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index to explain the inter-annual and long-term shifts in their location. Results: (a) Year-to-year southwestwards shifts in the population centroids of deep- and shallow-water species were linked to negative NAO values. Shallow-water species shifted northeastwards associated with positive NAO values and the distance shifted increased with increasing NAO. Deep-water species shifted northeastwards up to zero NAO indices, but showed no further increase at higher NAO values. (b) Deep-water species showed long-term northeastwards shifts in distributional abundance throughout the 1990s and the 2000s. Shallow-water species, on the other hand, shifted northeastwards during the 1990s and early 2000s, but southwestwards thereafter. There were no significant links between the NAO and year-to-year movements or long-term shifts in farmland species’ population centroid. Main Conclusions: We provide evidence for a link between both year-to-year and long-term changes in waterbird winter distributional abundances at large geographical scales to short- and long-term changes in winter weather conditions. We also show that species using shallow water, deep-water and farmland habitats responded differently, especially at high NAO values. As well as important ecological implications, these findings contribute to the development of future conservation measures for these species under current and future climate change.
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| 9. |
- Pavón-Jordán, Diego, et al.
(författare)
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Positive impacts of important bird and biodiversity areas on wintering waterbirds under changing temperatures throughout Europe and North Africa
- 2020
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Ingår i: Biological Conservation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-2917 .- 0006-3207. ; 246
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Migratory waterbirds require an effectively conserved cohesive network of wetland areas throughout their range and life-cycle. Under rapid climate change, protected area (PA) networks need to be able to accommodate climate-driven range shifts in wildlife if they are to continue to be effective in the future. Thus, we investigated geographical variation in the relationship between local temperature anomaly and the abundance of 61 waterbird species during the wintering season across Europe and North Africa during 1990–2015. We also compared the spatio-temporal effects on abundance of sites designated as PAs, Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs), both, or neither designation (Unlisted). Waterbird abundance was positively correlated with temperature anomaly, with this pattern being strongest towards north and east Europe. Waterbird abundance was higher inside IBAs, whether they were legally protected or not. Trends in waterbird abundance were also consistently more positive inside both protected and unprotected IBAs across the whole study region, and were positive in Unlisted wetlands in southwestern Europe and North Africa. These results suggest that IBAs are important sites for wintering waterbirds, but also that populations are shifting to unprotected wetlands (some of which are IBAs). Such IBAs may therefore represent robust candidate sites to expand the network of legally protected wetlands under climate change in north-eastern Europe. These results underscore the need for monitoring to understand how the effectiveness of site networks is changing under climate change. © 2020 The Authors
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| 10. |
- Soultan, Alaaeldin, et al.
(författare)
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The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 17:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr-1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr-1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
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