| 1. |
- Allanson, Paul, et al.
(författare)
-
Longitudinal analysis of income-related health inequality
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Journal of Health Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-1646 .- 0167-6296. ; 29:1, s. 78-86
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper considers the characterisation and measurement of income-related health inequality using longitudinal data. The paper elucidates the nature of the Jones and Lopez Nicolas (2004) index of "health-related income mobility" and explains the negative values of the index that have been reported in all the empirical applications to date. The paper further presents an alternative approach to the analysis of longitudinal data that brings Out complementary aspects of the evolution of income-related health inequalities over time. In particular, we propose a new index of "income-related health mobility" that measures whether the pattern of health changes is biased in favour of those with initially high or low incomes. We illustrate our work by investigating mobility in the General Health Questionnaire measure of psychological well-being over the first nine waves of the British Household Panel Survey from 1991 to 1999. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
|
|
| 2. |
- Calara, Paul Samuel, et al.
(författare)
-
The Dynamics of Income-Related Health Inequalities in Australia versus Great Britain
- 2016
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This study compares the evolution of income-related health inequality (IRHI) in Australia (2001–2006) and in Great Britain (1999–2004) by exploring patterns of morbidity- and mortality-related health changes across income groups. Using Australian longitudinal data, the change in health inequality is decomposed into those changes related to health changes (income-related health mobility) and income changes (health-related income mobility), and compared with recent results from Great Britain. Absolute IRHI increased for both sexes, indicating greater absolute health inequality in Australia over this period, similar to that seen in Great Britain. The income-related health mobility indicates that this was due to health losses over this period being concentrated in those initially poor who were significantly more likely to die. The health-related income mobility further indicates that those who moved up the income distribution during the period were more likely to be those who were healthy. Australian estimates of mobility measures are similar, if not greater, in magnitude than for Great Britain. While reducing health inequality remains high on the political agenda in Great Britain, it has received less attention in Australia even though the evidence provided here suggests it should receive more attention.
|
|
| 3. |
- Jarl, Johan, et al.
(författare)
-
On Measurement of Avoidable and Unavoidable Cost of Alcohol: An Application of Method for Estimating Costs Due To Prior Consumption
- 2010
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI AG. - 1660-4601. ; 7:7, s. 2881-2895
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study estimates the avoidable and unavoidable costs of alcohol-related, liver cirrhosis inpatient care, controlling for the lag structure and period of decline in disease risk. Lag structures with different lengths are applied to the exposure to risk from alcohol consumption, which allows for differentiation between avoidable and unavoidable cases due to prior consumption. A lag length of 20 (men) and 23 (women) years (expected remaining life years) gives a total cost of 592 million SEK. Given alcohol consumption is reduced to zero, 72% of cost could potentially be avoided. It is important to account for the length and structure of the risk decline following a consumption change as this substantially affects the estimates.
|
|
| 4. |
- Johansson, Naimi, 1988-, et al.
(författare)
-
Reductions in out-of-pocket prices and forward-looking moral hazard in health care demand
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Journal of Health Economics. - : Elsevier. - 0167-6296 .- 1879-1646. ; 87
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Little is known about how patients dynamically respond to a forthcoming reduction in health care out-of-pocket prices. Using a kinked Donut Regression Discontinuity design with kinks entering and exiting the donut, we evaluate a Swedish cost-sharing policy, where primary care out-of-pocket prices were eliminated at age 85. We find evidence of forward-looking moral hazard with older adults delaying primary care visits up to four months before the out-of-pocket elimination and shifting these visits until shortly after. These health care delays are driven by non-urgent care: non-physician visits, planned visits and follow up visits. We find no evidence of severe negative health effects in the short-term as a result of the delay. Contrary to our finding of forward-looking behavior with respect to out-of-pocket prices, we do not find evidence of typical moral hazard, as we do not find a persistent increase in primary health care use after the copayment elimination.
|
|
| 5. |
- Kjellsson, Gustav, 1981, et al.
(författare)
-
Lies, Damned Lies, and Health Inequality Measurements: Understanding the Value Judgments.
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Epidemiology. - 1044-3983 .- 1531-5487. ; 26:5, s. 673-680
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Measuring and monitoring socioeconomic health inequalities are critical for understanding the impact of policy decisions. However, the measurement of health inequality is far from value neutral, and one can easily present the measure that best supports one’s chosen conclusion or selectively exclude measures. Improving people’s understanding of the often implicit value judgments is therefore important to reduce the risk that researchers mislead or policymakers are misled. While the choice between relative and absolute inequality is already value laden, further complexities arise when, as is often the case, health variables have both a lower and upper bound, and thus can be expressed in terms of either attainments or shortfalls, such as for mortality/survival. We bring together the recent parallel discussions from epidemiology and health economics regarding health inequality measurement and provide a deeper understanding of the different value judgments within absolute and relative measures expressed both in attainments and shortfalls, by graphically illustrating both hypothetical and real examples. We show that relative measures in terms of attainments and shortfalls have distinct value judgments, highlighting that for health variables with two bounds the choice is no longer only between an absolute and a relative measure but between an absolute, an attainment- relative and a shortfall-relative one. We illustrate how these three value judgments can be combined onto a single graph which shows the rankings according to all three measures, and illustrates how the three measures provide ethical benchmarks against which to judge the difference in inequality between populations.
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
- Kjellsson, Gustav, et al.
(författare)
-
The authors respond
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Epidemiology. - 1044-3983. ; 27:3, s. 16-17
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
|
|
| 8. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 9. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
-
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 10. |
- Petrie, Dennis, et al.
(författare)
-
Accounting for the dead in the longitudinal analysis of income-related health inequalities
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Journal of Health Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-1646 .- 0167-6296. ; 30:5, s. 1113-1123
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper develops an accounting framework to consider the effect of deaths on the longitudinal analysis of income-related health inequalities. Ignoring deaths or using Inverse Probability Weights (IPWs) to re-weight the sample for mortality-related attrition can produce misleading results. Incorporating deaths into the longitudinal analysis of income-related health inequalities provides a more complete picture in terms of the evaluation of health changes in respect to socioeconomic status. We illustrate our work by investigating health mobility from 1999 till 2004 using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). We show that for Scottish males explicitly accounting for the dead rather than using IPWs to account for mortality-related attrition changes the direction of the relationship between relative health changes and initial income position, from negative to positive, while for other groups it significantly increases the strength of the positive relationship. Incorporating the dead may be vital in the longitudinal analysis of health inequalities. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
|
|
