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- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Nguyen, Thanh N, et al.
(författare)
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Global Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stroke Volumes and Cerebrovascular Events: A 1-Year Follow-up.
- 2023
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Ingår i: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 100:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Declines in stroke admission, IV thrombolysis (IVT), and mechanical thrombectomy volumes were reported during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a paucity of data on the longer-term effect of the pandemic on stroke volumes over the course of a year and through the second wave of the pandemic. We sought to measure the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volumes of stroke admissions, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), IVT, and mechanical thrombectomy over a 1-year period at the onset of the pandemic (March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021) compared with the immediately preceding year (March 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020).We conducted a longitudinal retrospective study across 6 continents, 56 countries, and 275 stroke centers. We collected volume data for COVID-19 admissions and 4 stroke metrics: ischemic stroke admissions, ICH admissions, IVT treatments, and mechanical thrombectomy procedures. Diagnoses were identified by their ICD-10 codes or classifications in stroke databases.There were 148,895 stroke admissions in the 1 year immediately before compared with 138,453 admissions during the 1-year pandemic, representing a 7% decline (95% CI [95% CI 7.1-6.9]; p < 0.0001). ICH volumes declined from 29,585 to 28,156 (4.8% [5.1-4.6]; p < 0.0001) and IVT volume from 24,584 to 23,077 (6.1% [6.4-5.8]; p < 0.0001). Larger declines were observed at high-volume compared with low-volume centers (all p < 0.0001). There was no significant change in mechanical thrombectomy volumes (0.7% [0.6-0.9]; p = 0.49). Stroke was diagnosed in 1.3% [1.31-1.38] of 406,792 COVID-19 hospitalizations. SARS-CoV-2 infection was present in 2.9% ([2.82-2.97], 5,656/195,539) of all stroke hospitalizations.There was a global decline and shift to lower-volume centers of stroke admission volumes, ICH volumes, and IVT volumes during the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with the prior year. Mechanical thrombectomy volumes were preserved. These results suggest preservation in the stroke care of higher severity of disease through the first pandemic year.This study is registered under NCT04934020.
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| 5. |
- Benoit, D D, et al.
(författare)
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Outcome in patients perceived as receiving excessive care across different ethical climates: a prospective study in 68 intensive care units in Europe and the USA.
- 2018
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Ingår i: Intensive care medicine. - 1432-1238. ; 44:7, s. 1039-1049
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Whether the quality of the ethical climate in the intensive care unit (ICU) improves the identification of patients receiving excessive care and affects patient outcomes is unknown.In this prospective observational study, perceptions of excessive care (PECs) by clinicians working in 68 ICUs in Europe and the USA were collected daily during a 28-day period. The quality of the ethical climate in the ICUs was assessed via a validated questionnaire. We compared the combined endpoint (death, not at home or poor quality of life at 1 year) of patients with PECs and the time from PECs until written treatment-limitation decisions (TLDs) and death across the four climates defined via cluster analysis.Of the 4747 eligible clinicians, 2992 (63%) evaluated the ethical climate in their ICU. Of the 321 and 623 patients not admitted for monitoring only in ICUs with a good (n = 12, 18%) and poor (n = 24, 35%) climate, 36 (11%) and 74 (12%), respectively were identified with PECs by at least two clinicians. Of the 35 and 71 identified patients with an available combined endpoint, 100% (95% CI 90.0-1.00) and 85.9% (75.4-92.0) (P = 0.02) attained that endpoint. The risk of death (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.20-2.92) or receiving a written TLD (HR 2.32, CI 1.11-4.85) in patients with PECs by at least two clinicians was higher in ICUs with a good climate than in those with a poor one. The differences between ICUs with an average climate, with (n = 12, 18%) or without (n = 20, 29%) nursing involvement at the end of life, and ICUs with a poor climate were less obvious but still in favour of the former.Enhancing the quality of the ethical climate in the ICU may improve both the identification of patients receiving excessive care and the decision-making process at the end of life.
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| 6. |
- Ioannou, Nikolaos, et al.
(författare)
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Triggering interferon signaling in T cells with avadomide sensitizes CLL to anti-PD-L1 /PD-1 immunotherapy
- 2021
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Ingår i: Blood. - : American Society of Hematology. - 0006-4971 .- 1528-0020. ; 137:2, s. 216-231
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cancer treatment has been transformed by checkpoint blockade therapies, with the highest anti-tumor activity of anti-programmed death 1 (PD-1) antibody therapy seen in Hodgkin lymphoma. Disappointingly, response rates have been low in the non-Hodgkin lymphomas, with no activity seen in relapsed/refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) with PD-1 blockade. Thus, identifying more powerful combination therapy is required for these patients. Here, we preclinically demonstrate enhanced anti-CLL activity following combinational therapy with anti-PD-1 or anti-PD-1 ligand (PD-L1) and avadomide, a cereblon E3 ligase modulator (CELMoD). Avadomide induced type I and II interferon (IFN) signaling in patient T cells, triggering a feedforward cascade of reinvigorated T-cell responses. Immune modeling assays demonstrated that avadomide stimulated T-cell activation, chemokine expression, motility and lytic synapses with CLL cells, as well as IFN-inducible feedback inhibition through upregulation of PD-L1. Patient-derived xenograft tumors treated with avadomide were converted to CD8(+) T cell-inflamed tumor microenvironments that responded to anti-PD-L1/PD-1-based combination therapy. Notably, clinical analyses showed increased PD-L1 expression on T cells, as well as intratumoral expression of chemokine signaling genes in B-cell malignancy patients receiving avadomide-based therapy. These data of overcoming a low inflammatory T-cell state to successfully sensitize CLL to checkpoint illustrate the importance blockade-based combination therapy.
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