| 1. |
- Cao, Qi, et al.
(författare)
-
Continuous-Time Semi-Markov Models in Health Economic Decision Making: An Illustrative Example in Heart Failure Disease Management
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Medical decision making. - : SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC. - 0272-989X .- 1552-681X. ; 36:1, s. 59-71
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Continuous-time state transition models may end up having large unwieldy structures when trying to represent all relevant stages of clinical disease processes by means of a standard Markov model. In such situations, a more parsimonious, and therefore easier-to-grasp, model of a patients disease progression can often be obtained by assuming that the future state transitions do not depend only on the present state (Markov assumption) but also on the past through time since entry in the present state. Despite that these so-called semi-Markov models are still relatively straightforward to specify and implement, they are not yet routinely applied in health economic evaluation to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative interventions. To facilitate a better understanding of this type of model among applied health economic analysts, the first part of this article provides a detailed discussion of what the semi-Markov model entails and how such models can be specified in an intuitive way by adopting an approach called vertical modeling. In the second part of the article, we use this approach to construct a semi-Markov model for assessing the long-term cost-effectiveness of 3 disease management programs for heart failure. Compared with a standard Markov model with the same disease states, our proposed semi-Markov model fitted the observed data much better. When subsequently extrapolating beyond the clinical trial period, these relatively large differences in goodness-of-fit translated into almost a doubling in mean total cost and a 60-d decrease in mean survival time when using the Markov model instead of the semi-Markov model. For the disease process considered in our case study, the semi-Markov model thus provided a sensible balance between model parsimoniousness and computational complexity.
|
|
| 2. |
- Chen, Yuntao, et al.
(författare)
-
A heart failure phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute heart failure: results from an individual participant data meta-analysis of four prospective European cohorts
- 2021
-
Ingår i: BMC Medicine. - : BMC. - 1741-7015. ; 19:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Prognostic models developed in general cohorts with a mixture of heart failure (HF) phenotypes, though more widely applicable, are also likely to yield larger prediction errors in settings where the HF phenotypes have substantially different baseline mortality rates or different predictor-outcome associations. This study sought to use individual participant data meta-analysis to develop an HF phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute HF. Methods Four prospective European cohorts were used to develop an HF phenotype stratified model. Cox model with two rounds of backward elimination was used to derive the prognostic index. Weibull model was used to obtain the baseline hazard functions. The internal-external cross-validation (IECV) approach was used to evaluate the generalizability of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results 3577 acute HF patients were included, of which 2368 were classified as having HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF) (HFrEF; EF < 40%), 588 as having HF with midrange EF (HFmrEF; EF 40-49%), and 621 as having HF with preserved EF (HFpEF; EF >= 50%). A total of 11 readily available variables built up the prognostic index. For four of these predictor variables, namely systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine, myocardial infarction, and diabetes, the effect differed across the three HF phenotypes. With a weighted IECV-adjusted AUC of 0.79 (0.74-0.83) for HFrEF, 0.74 (0.70-0.79) for HFmrEF, and 0.74 (0.71-0.77) for HFpEF, the model showed excellent discrimination. Moreover, there was a good agreement between the average observed and predicted 1-year mortality risks, especially after recalibration of the baseline mortality risks. Conclusions Our HF phenotype stratified model showed excellent generalizability across four European cohorts and may provide a useful tool in HF phenotype-specific clinical decision-making.
|
|
| 3. |
- de Boer, Rudolf A, et al.
(författare)
-
The WAP four-disulfide core domain protein HE4 : a novel biomarker for heart failure.
- 2013
-
Ingår i: JACC. Heart failure. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-1787 .- 2213-1779. ; 1:2, s. 164-169
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: This study investigated clinical determinants and added prognostic value of HE4 as a biomarker not previously described in heart failure (HF).BACKGROUND: Identification of plasma biomarkers that help to risk stratify HF patients may help to improve treatment.METHODS: Plasma HE4 levels were determined in 567 participants of the COACH (Coordinating study evaluating outcomes of Advising and Counseling in Heart failure). Patients had been hospitalized for HF and were followed for 18 months. The primary endpoint of this study was a composite of all-cause mortality and HF hospitalization.RESULTS: HE4 showed a strong correlation with HF severity, according to New York Heart Association functional class and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels (p < 0.001). HE4 also showed a positive correlation with GDF15 (p < 0.001) and, in addition, correlated with kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]; p < 0.001). Cox regression analysis revealed that a doubling of HE4 levels was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.73 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.53 to 1.95) for the primary outcome (p < 0.001). After correction for age, gender, BNP, and eGFR, the HR was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.23 to 1.72; p < 0.001), and after additional adjustment for GDF15, the HR lowered to 1.30 (95% CI: 1.07 to 1.59; p = 0.009). The area under the curve in the receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis increased from 0.727 to 0.752 when HE4 was included in the clinical evaluation (p = 0.051). The integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification index for reclassification showed significant improvements when HE4 was added to the clinical model, and this remained significant after BNP inclusion in the model.CONCLUSIONS: HE4 plasma levels are correlated with markers of HF severity, show prognostic value, and can improve risk assessment in HF.
|
|
| 4. |
- Heerspink, Hiddo J L, et al.
(författare)
-
A pre-specified analysis of the Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease (DAPA-CKD) randomized controlled trial on the incidence of abrupt declines in kidney function.
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Kidney international. - : Elsevier BV. - 1523-1755 .- 0085-2538. ; 101:1, s. 174-184
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This pre-specified analysis of DAPA-CKD assessed the impact of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibition on abrupt declines in kidney function in high-risk patients based on having chronic kidney disease (CKD) and substantial albuminuria. DAPA-CKD was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial that had a median follow-up of 2.4 years. Adults with CKD (urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio 200-5000 mg/g and estimated glomerular filtration rate 25-75 mL/min/1.73m2) were randomized to dapagliflozin 10 mg/day matched to placebo (2152 individuals each). An abrupt decline in kidney function was defined as a pre-specified endpoint of doubling of serum creatinine between two subsequent study visits. We also assessed a post-hoc analysis of investigator-reported acute kidney injury-related serious adverse events. Doubling of serum creatinine between two subsequent visits (median time-interval 100 days) occurred in 63 (2.9%) and 91 (4.2%) participants in the dapagliflozin and placebo groups, respectively (hazard ratio 0.68 [95% confidence interval 0.49, 0.94]). Accounting for the competing risk of mortality did not alter our findings. There was no heterogeneity in the effect of dapagliflozin on abrupt declines in kidney function based on baseline subgroups. Acute kidney injury-related serious adverse events were not significantly different and occurred in 52 (2.5%) and 69 (3.2%) participants in the dapagliflozin and placebo groups, respectively (0.77 [0.54, 1.10]). Thus, in patients with CKD and substantial albuminuria, dapagliflozin reduced the risk of abrupt declines in kidney function.
|
|
| 5. |
- McMurray, John J. V., et al.
(författare)
-
Effect of Dapagliflozin on Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease, With and Without Cardiovascular Disease
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Circulation. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 143:5, s. 438-448
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background:Dapagliflozin reduces the risk of end-stage renal disease in patients with chronic kidney disease. We examined the relative risk of cardiovascular and renal events in these patients and the effect of dapagliflozin on either type of event, taking account of history of cardiovascular disease.Methods:In the DAPA-CKD trial (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease), 4304 participants with chronic kidney disease were randomly assigned to dapagliflozin 10 mg once daily or placebo. The primary end point was a composite of sustained decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥50%, end-stage kidney disease, or kidney or cardiovascular death. The secondary end points were a kidney composite outcome (primary end point, minus cardiovascular death), the composite of hospitalization for heart failure or cardiovascular death, and all-cause death. In a prespecified subgroup analysis, we divided patients into primary and secondary prevention subgroups according to history of cardiovascular disease.Results:Secondary prevention patients (n=1610; 37.4%) were older, were more often male, had a higher blood pressure and body mass index, and were more likely to have diabetes. Mean estimated glomerular filtration rate and median urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio were similar in the primary and secondary prevention groups. The rates of adverse cardiovascular outcomes were higher in the secondary prevention group, but kidney failure occurred at the same rate in the primary and secondary prevention groups. Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome to a similar extent in both the primary (hazard ratio, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.48–0.78]) and secondary (0.61 [0.47–0.79]) prevention groups (P-interaction=0.90). This was also true for the composite of heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death (0.67 [0.40–1.13] versus 0.70 [0.52–0.94], respectively; P-interaction=0.88), and all-cause mortality (0.63 [0.41–0.98] versus 0.70 [0.51–0.95], respectively; P-interaction=0.71). Rates of adverse events were low overall and did not differ between patients with and without cardiovascular disease.Conclusions:Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of kidney failure, death from cardiovascular causes or hospitalization for heart failure, and prolonged survival in people with chronic kidney disease, with or without type 2 diabetes, independently of the presence of concomitant cardiovascular disease.Registration:URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03036150.
|
|
| 6. |
- Nieuwenhuis, Maurice M W, et al.
(författare)
-
Long-Term Compliance With Nonpharmacologic Treatment of Patients With Heart Failure
- 2012
-
Ingår i: American Journal of Cardiology. - : Elsevier. - 0002-9149 .- 1879-1913. ; 110:3, s. 392-397
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this study was to examine long-term compliance with nonpharmacologic treatment of patients with heart failure (HF) and its associated variables. Data from 648 hospitalized patients with HF (mean age 69 +/- 12 years, 38% women, mean left ventricular ejection fraction 33 +/- 14%) were analyzed. Compliance was assessed by means of self-report at baseline and 1, 6, 12, and 18 months after discharge. Patients completed questionnaires on depressive symptoms, HF knowledge, and physical functioning at baseline. Logistic regression analyses were performed to examine independent associations with low long-term compliance. From baseline to 18-month follow-up, long-term compliance with diet and fluid restriction ranged from 77% to 91% and from 72% to 89%, respectively. In contrast, compliance with daily weighing (34% to 85%) and exercise (48% to 64%) was lower. Patients who were in New York Heart Association functional class II were more often noncompliant with fluid restriction (odds ratio [OR] 1.97, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25 to 3.08). A lower level of knowledge on HF was independently associated with low compliance with fluid restriction (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.86) and daily weighing (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.94). Educational support improved compliance with these recommendations. Female gender (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.90), left ventricular ejection fraction andgt;= 40% (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.34), a history of stroke (OR 3.55, 95% CI 1.54 to 8.16), and less physical functioning (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.98 to 0.99) were associated with low compliance with exercise. In conclusion, long-term compliance with exercise and daily weighing was lower than long-term compliance with advice on diet and fluid restriction. Although knowledge on HF and being offered educational support positively affected compliance with weighing and fluid restriction, these variables were not related to compliance with exercise. Therefore, new approaches to help patients with HF stay physically active are needed. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2012;110:392-397)
|
|
| 7. |
- Postmus, Douwe, et al.
(författare)
-
A trial-based economic evaluation of 2 nurse-led disease management programs in heart failure
- 2011
-
Ingår i: American Heart Journal. - : Elsevier. - 0002-8703 .- 1097-6744. ; 162:6, s. 1096-1104
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Although previously conducted meta-analyses suggest that nurse-led disease management programs in heart failure (HF) can improve patient outcomes, uncertainty regarding the cost-effectiveness of such programs remains. Methods To compare the relative merits of 2 variants of a nurse-led disease management program (basic or intensive support by a nurse specialized in the management of patients with HF) against care as usual (routine follow-up by a cardiologist), a trial-based economic evaluation was conducted alongside the COACH study. Results In terms of costs per life-year, basic support was found to dominate care as usual, whereas the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio between intensive support and basic support was found to be equal to (sic)532,762 per life-year; in terms of costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), basic support was found to dominate both care as usual and intensive support. An assessment of the uncertainty surrounding these findings showed that, at a threshold value of (sic)20,000 per life-year/(sic)20,000 per QALY, basic support was found to have a probability of 69/62% of being optimal against 17/30% and 14/8% for care as usual and intensive support, respectively. The results of our subgroup analysis suggest that a stratified approach based on offering basic support to patients with mild to moderate HF and intensive support to patients with severe HF would be optimal if the willingness-to-pay threshold exceeds (sic)45,345 per life-year/(sic)59,289 per QALY. Conclusions Although the differences in costs and effects among the 3 study groups were not statistically significant, from a decision-making perspective, basic support still had a relatively large probability of generating the highest health outcomes at the lowest costs. Our results also substantiated that a stratified approach based on offering basic support to patients with mild to moderate HF and intensive support to patients with severe HF could further improve health outcomes at slightly higher costs.
|
|
| 8. |
- Postmus, Douwe, et al.
(författare)
-
The COACH risk engine : a multistate model for predicting survival and hospitalization in patients with heart failure
- 2012
-
Ingår i: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : Oxford University Press (OUP): Policy B. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844. ; 14:2, s. 168-175
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims Several models for predicting the prognosis of heart failure (HF) patients have been developed, but all of them focus on a single outcome variable, such as all-cause mortality. The purpose of this study was to develop a multistate model for simultaneously predicting survival and HF-related hospitalization in patients discharged alive from hospital after recovery from acute HF. less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanMethods and results The model was derived in the COACH (Coordinating Study Evaluating Outcomes of Advising and Counseling in Heart Failure) cohort, a multicentre, randomized controlled trial in which 1023 patients were enrolled after hospitalization because of HF. External validation was attained with the FINN-AKVA (Finish Acute Heart Failure Study) cohort, a prospective, multicentre study with 620 patients hospitalized due to acute HF. The observed vs. predicted 18-month survival was 72.1% vs. 72.3% in the derivation cohort and 71.4% vs. 71.2% in the validation cohort. The corresponding values of the c statistic were 0.733 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.705-0.761] and 0.702 (95% CI 0.663-0.744), respectively. The models accuracy in predicting HF hospitalization was excellent, with predicted values that closely resembled the values observed in the derivation cohort. less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanConclusion The COACH risk engine accurately predicted survival and various measures of recurrent hospitalization in (acute) HF patients. It may therefore become a valuable tool in improving and personalizing patient care and optimizing the use of scarce healthcare resources.
|
|
| 9. |
- Russo, Selena, et al.
(författare)
-
Understanding Patients' Preferences : A Systematic Review of Psychological Instruments Used in Patients' Preference and Decision Studies
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Value in Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 1098-3015 .- 1524-4733. ; 22:4, s. 491-501
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundResearch has been mainly focused on how to elicit patient preferences, with less attention on why patients form certain preferences.ObjectivesTo assess which psychological instruments are currently used and which psychological constructs are known to have an impact on patients' preferences and health-related decisions including the formation of preferences and preference heterogeneity.MethodsA systematic database search was undertaken to identify relevant studies. From the selected studies, the following information was extracted: study objectives, study population, design, psychological dimensions investigated, and instruments used to measure psychological variables.ResultsThirty-three studies were identified that described the association between a psychological construct, measured using a validated instrument, and patients' preferences or health-related decisions. We identified 33 psychological instruments and 18 constructs, and categorized the instruments into 5 groups, namely, motivational factors, cognitive factors, individual differences, emotion and mood, and health beliefs.ConclusionsThis review provides an overview of the psychological factors and related instruments in the context of patients' preferences and decisions in healthcaresettings. Our results indicate that measures of health literacy, numeracy, and locus of control have an impact on health-related preferences and decisions. Within the category of constructs that could explain preference and decision heterogeneity, health locus of control is a strong predictor of decisions in several healthcare contexts and is useful to consider when designing a patient preference study. Future research should continue to explore the association of psychological constructs with preference formation and heterogeneity to build on these initial recommendations.
|
|
