| 1. |
- Daniau, A. -L, et al.
(författare)
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predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes
- 2012
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 26, s. GB4007-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo-fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.
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| 2. |
- Arneth, Almut, et al.
(författare)
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From biota to chemistry and climate: towards a comprehensive description of trace gas exchange between the biosphere and atmosphere
- 2010
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - 1726-4189. ; 7:1, s. 121-149
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Exchange of non-CO2 trace gases between the land surface and the atmosphere plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. Recent studies have highlighted its importance for interpretation of glacial-interglacial ice-core records, the simulation of the pre-industrial and present atmosphere, and the potential for large climate-chemistry and climate-aerosol feedbacks in the coming century. However, spatial and temporal variations in trace gas emissions and the magnitude of future feedbacks are a major source of uncertainty in atmospheric chemistry, air quality and climate science. To reduce such uncertainties Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are currently being expanded to mechanistically represent processes relevant to non-CO2 trace gas exchange between land biota and the atmosphere. In this paper we present a review of important non-CO2 trace gas emissions, the state-of-the-art in DGVM modelling of processes regulating these emissions, identify key uncertainties for global scale model applications, and discuss a methodology for model integration and evaluation.
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| 3. |
- Charman, D. J., et al.
(författare)
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Climate-related changes in peatland carbon accumulation during the last millennium
- 2013
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 10:2, s. 929-944
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Peatlands are a major terrestrial carbon store and a persistent natural carbon sink during the Holocene, but there is considerable uncertainty over the fate of peatland carbon in a changing climate. It is generally assumed that higher temperatures will increase peat decay, causing a positive feedback to climate warming and contributing to the global positive carbon cycle feedback. Here we use a new extensive database of peat profiles across northern high latitudes to examine spatial and temporal patterns of carbon accumulation over the past millennium. Opposite to expectations, our results indicate a small negative carbon cycle feedback from past changes in the long-term accumulation rates of northern peatlands. Total carbon accumulated over the last 1000 yr is linearly related to contemporary growing season length and photosynthetically active radiation, suggesting that variability in net primary productivity is more important than decomposition in determining long-term carbon accumulation. Furthermore, northern peatland carbon sequestration rate declined over the climate transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the Little Ice Age (LIA), probably because of lower LIA temperatures combined with increased cloudiness suppressing net primary productivity. Other factors including changing moisture status, peatland distribution, fire, nitrogen deposition, permafrost thaw and methane emissions will also influence future peatland carbon cycle feedbacks, but our data suggest that the carbon sequestration rate could increase over many areas of northern peatlands in a warmer future.
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| 4. |
- De Kauwe, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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A test of the ‘one-point method’ for estimating maximum carboxylation capacity from field-measured, light-saturated photosynthesis
- 2016
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Ingår i: New Phytologist. - : Wiley. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 210:3, s. 1130-1144
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Simulations of photosynthesis by terrestrial biosphere models typically need a specification of the maximum carboxylation rate (Vcmax). Estimating this parameter using A–Ci curves (net photosynthesis, A, vs intercellular CO2 concentration, Ci) is laborious, which limits availability of Vcmax data. However, many multispecies field datasets include net photosynthetic rate at saturating irradiance and at ambient atmospheric CO2 concentration (Asat) measurements, from which Vcmax can be extracted using a ‘one-point method’. We used a global dataset of A–Ci curves (564 species from 46 field sites, covering a range of plant functional types) to test the validity of an alternative approach to estimate Vcmax from Asat via this ‘one-point method’. If leaf respiration during the day (Rday) is known exactly, Vcmax can be estimated with an r2 value of 0.98 and a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of 8.19 μmol m−2 s−1. However, Rday typically must be estimated. Estimating Rday as 1.5% of Vcmax, we found that Vcmax could be estimated with an r2 of 0.95 and an RMSE of 17.1 μmol m−2 s−1. The one-point method provides a robust means to expand current databases of field-measured Vcmax, giving new potential to improve vegetation models and quantify the environmental drivers of Vcmax variation.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Harrison, S. P., et al.
(författare)
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Climate model benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates
- 2014
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 43:3-4, s. 671-688
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Past climates provide a test of models' ability to predict climate change. We present a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art models against Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene climates, using reconstructions of land and ocean climates and simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling and Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Projects. Newer models do not perform better than earlier versions despite higher resolution and complexity. Differences in climate sensitivity only weakly account for differences in model performance. In the glacial, models consistently underestimate land cooling (especially in winter) and overestimate ocean surface cooling (especially in the tropics). In the mid-Holocene, models generally underestimate the precipitation increase in the northern monsoon regions, and overestimate summer warming in central Eurasia. Models generally capture large-scale gradients of climate change but have more limited ability to reproduce spatial patterns. Despite these common biases, some models perform better than others.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Lucht, W, et al.
(författare)
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Climatic control of the high-latitude vegetation greening trend and Pinatubo effect
- 2002
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 1095-9203 .- 0036-8075. ; 296:5573, s. 1687-1689
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A biogeochemical model of vegetation using observed climate data predicts the high northern latitude greening trend over the past two decades observed by satellites and a marked setback in this trend after the Mount Pinatubo, volcano eruption in 1991. The observed trend toward earlier spring budburst and increased maximum leaf area is produced by the model as a consequence of biogeochemical vegetation responses mainly to changes in temperature. The post-Pinatubo decline in vegetation in 1992-1993 is apparent as the effect of temporary cooling caused by the eruption. High-latitude CO2 uptake during these years is predicted as a consequence of the differential response of heterotrophic respiration and net primary production.
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| 9. |
- Morales, Pablo, et al.
(författare)
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Comparing and evaluating process-based ecosystem model predictions of carbon and water fluxes in major European forest biomes
- 2005
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 11:12, s. 2211-2233
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Process-based models can be classified into: (a) terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs), which simulate fluxes of carbon, water and nitrogen coupled within terrestrial ecosystems, and (b) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), which further couple these processes interactively with changes in slow ecosystem processes depending on resource competition, establishment, growth and mortality of different vegetation types. In this study, four models - RHESSys, GOTILWA+, LPJ-GUESS and ORCHIDEE - representing both modelling approaches were compared and evaluated against benchmarks provided by eddy-covariance measurements of carbon and water fluxes at 15 forest sites within the EUROFLUX project. Overall, model-measurement agreement varied greatly among sites. Both modelling approaches have somewhat different strengths, but there was no model among those tested that universally performed well on the two variables evaluated. Small biases and errors suggest that ORCHIDEE and GOTILWA+ performed better in simulating carbon fluxes while LPJ-GUESS and RHESSys did a better job in simulating water fluxes. In general, the models can be considered as useful tools for studies of climate change impacts on carbon and water cycling in forests. However, the various sources of variation among models simulations and between models simulations and observed data described in this study place some constraints on the results and to some extent reduce their reliability. For example, at most sites in the Mediterranean region all models generally performed poorly most likely because of problems in the representation of water stress effects on both carbon uptake by photosynthesis and carbon release by heterotrophic respiration (R-h). The use of flux data as a means of assessing key processes in models of this type is an important approach to improving model performance. Our results show that the models have value but that further model development is necessary with regard to the representation of the some of the key ecosystem processes.
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