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- Alexander, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections
- 2017
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013. ; 23:2, s. 767-781
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
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- Kvien, TK, et al.
(författare)
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Long term efficacy and safety of cyclosporin versus parenteral old in early rheumatoid arthritis: a three year study of radiographic progression, renal function, and arterial hypertension
- 2002
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Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 61:6, s. 511-516
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To compare the three year safety and efficacy of cyclosporin and parenteral gold in the treatment of early, active, severe rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and to study the reversibility of cyclosporin associated renal dysfunction in patients who discontinued cyclosporin treatment. Methods: The patients continued to receive cyclosporin or parenteral gold in an 18 month open extension to an 18 month randomised, parallel group study. The main efficacy variable was blinded evaluation of radiographic progression of joint damage, Safety variables included serum creatinine, calculated creatinine clearance, and blood pressure. Results: Radiographic progression during follow up was similar in both groups. About 60% of the patients in the intention to treat groups (n=272) and about half of the patients in the completer groups (n=114) had definite radiographic progression in joint damage (increases >6 in the Larsen-Dale score), and about one in three also had substantial progression (>18 increase in Larsen-Dale score). Both systolic and diastolic blood pressure were significantly increased in the cyclosporin group compared with the gold group, and 12/139 (9%) versus 3/139 (2%) (p=0.03) had notably raised blood pressure. The mean serum creatinine increased by 28% at the treatment end point in the cyclosporin group as compared with 7% in the gold group, The mean calculated creatinine clearance was reduced by 16% and increased by 1% in the cyclosporin and gold groups, respectively, at the end of the study. At the final follow up visit after discontinuation of cyclosporin (at least three months after treatment was stopped) the mean serum creatinine was increased by 15% and creatinine clearance reduced by 16%. Sustained increases in serum creatinine at this post-treatment end point were mostly seen in patients with a raised serum creatinine during treatment of at least 50%. Conclusion: Three year changes in radiographic damage during cyclosporin and parenteral gold were similar in patients with early, active RA. Abnormal renal function and raised blood pressure were often seen in the cyclosporin treated patients.
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- Prestele, Reinhard, et al.
(författare)
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Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections : a global-scale model comparison
- 2016
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 22:12, s. 3967-3983
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.
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