| 1. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Borggren, Marie, et al.
(author)
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Evolution of DC-SIGN use revealed by fitness studies of R5 HIV-I variants emerging during AIDS progression
- 2008
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In: Retrovirology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1742-4690. ; 5:28
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: At early stages of infection CCR5 is the predominant HIV-1 coreceptor, but in approximately 50% of those infected CXCR4-using viruses emerge with disease progression. This coreceptor switch is correlated with an accelerated progression. However, those that maintain virus exclusively restricted to CCR5 (R5) also develop AIDS. We have previously reported that R5 variants in these "non-switch virus" patients evolve during disease progression towards a more replicative phenotype exhibiting altered CCR5 coreceptor interactions. DC-SIGN is a C-type lectin expressed by dendritic cells that HIV-1 may bind and utilize for enhanced infection of T cells in trans. To further explore the evolution of the R5 phenotype we analyzed sequential R5 isolates obtained before and after AIDS onset, i.e. at the chronic stage and during end-stage disease, with regard to efficiency of DC-SIGN use in trans-infections. Results: Results from binding and trans-infection assays showed that R5 viruses emerging during end-stage AIDS disease displayed reduced ability to use DC-SIGN. To better understand viral determinants underlying altered DC-SIGN usage by R5 viruses, we cloned and sequenced the HIV-1 env gene. We found that end-stage R5 viruses lacked potential N-linked glycosylation sites (PNGS) in the gp120 V2 and V4 regions, which were present in the majority of the chronic stage R5 variants. One of these sites, amino acid position 160 (aa160) in the V2 region, also correlated with efficient use of DC-SIGN for binding and trans-infections. In fitness assays, where head-to-head competitions between chronic stage and AIDS R5 viruses were setup in parallel direct and DCSIGN-mediated infections, results were further supported. Competitions revealed that R5 viruses obtained before AIDS onset, containing the V2 PNGS at aa160, were selected for in the transinfection. Whereas, in agreement with our previous studies, the opposite was seen in direct target cell infections where end-stage viruses out-competed the chronic stage viruses. Conclusion: Results of our study suggest R5 virus variants with diverse fitness for direct and DCSIGN-mediated trans-infections evolve within infected individuals at end-stage disease. In addition, our results point to the importance of a glycosylation site within the gp120 V2 region for efficient DC-SIGN use of HIV-1 R5 viruses.
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| 5. |
- Repits, Johanna, et al.
(author)
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Primary HIV-1 R5 isolates from end-stage disease display enhanced viral fitness in parallel with increased gp120 net charge.
- 2008
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In: Virology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1096-0341 .- 0042-6822. ; 379:1, s. 125-134
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To better understand the evolution of the viral envelope glycoproteins (Env) in HIV-1 infected individuals who progress to AIDS maintaining an exclusive CCR5-using (R5) virus population, we cloned and sequenced the env gene of longitudinally obtained primary isolates. A shift in the electrostatic potential towards an increased net positive charge was revealed in gp120 of end-stage viruses. Residues with increased positive charge were primarily localized in the gp120 variable regions, with the exception of the V3 loop. Molecular modeling indicated that the modifications clustered on the gp120 surface. Furthermore, correlations between increased Env net charge and lowered CD4(+) T cell counts, enhanced viral fitness, reduced sensitivity to entry inhibitors and augmented cell attachment were disclosed. In summary, this study suggests that R5 HIV-1 variants with increased gp120 net charge emerge in an opportunistic manner during severe immunodeficiency. Thus, we here propose a new mechanism by which HIV-1 may gain fitness.
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| 6. |
- Wade, Jessica, et al.
(author)
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Enhanced CD4+cellular apoptosis by CCR5-restricted HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein variants from patients with progressive HIV-1 infection
- 2010
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In: Virology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1096-0341 .- 0042-6822. ; 396:2, s. 246-255
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- CCR5-using (R5) human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) strains cause CD4+ T-cell loss in most infected individuals, but mechanisms underlying cytopathicity of R5 viruses are poorly understood. We investigated mechanisms contributing to R5 envelope glycoprotein (Env)-mediated cellular apoptosis by constructing a panel of retroviral vectors engineered to co-express GFP and R5 Envs derived from two HIV-1 infected subjects spanning asymptomatic (Early, E-R5 Envs) to late stages of infection (Late, L-R5 Envs). The L-R5 Envs induced significantly more cellular apoptosis than E-R5 Envs, but only in Env-expressing (GFP-positive) cells, and only in cells where CD4 and CCR5 levels were limiting. Studies with fusion-defective Env mutants showed induction of apoptosis required membrane-fusing events. Our results provide evidence for an intracellular mechanism of R5 Env-induced apoptosis of CD4+ cells that requires membrane fusion. Furthermore, they contribute to a better understanding of mechanisms involved in CD4+ T-cell loss in subjects experiencing progressive R5 HIV-1 infection. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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