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- Dormann, Carsten F., et al.
(författare)
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Components of uncertainty in species distribution analysis: a case study of the Great Grey Shrike
- 2008
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Ingår i: Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0012-9658. ; 89:12, s. 3371-3386
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sophisticated statistical analyses are common in ecological research, particularly in species distribution modeling. The effects of sometimes arbitrary decisions during the modeling procedure on the final outcome are difficult to assess, and to date are largely unexplored. We conducted an analysis quantifying the contribution of uncertainty in each step during the model-building sequence to variation in model validity and climate change projection uncertainty. Our study system was the distribution of the Great Grey Shrike in the German federal state of Saxony. For each of four steps (data quality, collinearity method, model type, and variable selection), we ran three different options in a factorial experiment, leading to 81 different model approaches. Each was subjected to a fivefold cross-validation, measuring area under curve (AUC) to assess model quality. Next, we used three climate change scenarios times three precipitation realizations to project future distributions from each model, yielding 729 projections. Again, we analyzed which step introduced most variability (the four model-building steps plus the two scenario steps) into predicted species prevalences by the year 2050. Predicted prevalences ranged from a factor of 0.2 to a factor of 10 of present prevalence, with the majority of predictions between 1.1 and 4.2 (inter-quartile range). We found that model type and data quality dominated this analysis. In particular, artificial neural networks yielded low cross-validation robustness and gave very conservative climate change predictions. Generalized linear and additive models were very similar in quality and predictions, and superior to neural networks. Variations in scenarios and realizations had very little effect, due to the small spatial extent of the study region and its relatively small range of climatic conditions. We conclude that, for climate projections, model type and data quality were the most influential factors. Since comparison of model types has received good coverage in the ecological literature, effects of data quality should now come under more scrutiny.
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| 2. |
- Jeliazkov, Alienor, et al.
(författare)
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A global database for metacommunity ecology, integrating species, traits, environment and space
- 2020
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2052-4463. ; 7:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The use of functional information in the form of species traits plays an important role in explaining biodiversity patterns and responses to environmental changes. Although relationships between species composition, their traits, and the environment have been extensively studied on a case-by-case basis, results are variable, and it remains unclear how generalizable these relationships are across ecosystems, taxa and spatial scales. To address this gap, we collated 80 datasets from trait-based studies into a global database for metaCommunity Ecology: Species, Traits, Environment and Space; “CESTES”. Each dataset includes four matrices: species community abundances or presences/absences across multiple sites, species trait information, environmental variables and spatial coordinates of the sampling sites. The CESTES database is a live database: it will be maintained and expanded in the future as new datasets become available. By its harmonized structure, and the diversity of ecosystem types, taxonomic groups, and spatial scales it covers, the CESTES database provides an important opportunity for synthetic trait-based research in community ecology. © 2020, The Author(s).
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| 4. |
- Möckel, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Classification of grassland successional stages using airborne hyperspectral imagery
- 2014
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Ingår i: Remote Sensing. - : MDPI AG. - 2072-4292. ; 6:8, s. 7732-7761
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant communities differ in their species composition, and, thus, also in their functional trait composition, at different stages in the succession from arable fields to grazed grassland. We examine whether aerial hyperspectral (414–2501 nm) remote sensing can be used to discriminate between grazed vegetation belonging to different grassland successional stages. Vascular plant species were recorded in 104.1 m2 plots on the island of Öland (Sweden) and the functional properties of the plant species recorded in the plots were characterized in terms of the ground-cover of grasses, specific leaf area and Ellenberg indicator values. Plots were assigned to three different grassland age-classes, representing 5–15, 16–50 and >50 years of grazing management. Partial least squares discriminant analysis models were used to compare classifications based on aerial hyperspectral data with the age-class classification. The remote sensing data successfully classified the plots into age-classes: the overall classification accuracy was higher for a model based on a pre-selected set of wavebands (85%, Kappa statistic value = 0.77) than one using the full set of wavebands (77%, Kappa statistic value = 0.65). Our results show that nutrient availability and grass cover differences between grassland age-classes are detectable by spectral imaging. These techniques may potentially be used for mapping the spatial distribution of grassland habitats at different successional stages.
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| 5. |
- Purschke, Oliver, et al.
(författare)
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Contrasting changes in taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity during a long-term succession: insights into assembly processes
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2745 .- 0022-0477. ; 101:4, s. 857-866
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. Theory predicts that the processes generating biodiversity after disturbance will change during succession. Comparisons of phylogenetic and functional (alpha and beta) diversity with taxonomic diversity can provide insights into the extent to which community assembly is driven by deterministic or stochastic processes, but comparative approaches have yet to be applied to successional systems. 2. We characterized taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional plant (alpha and beta) diversity within and between four successional stages in a > 270-year-long arable-to-grassland chronosequence. Null models were used to test whether functional and phylogenetic turnover differed from random expectations, given the levels of species diversity. 3. The three facets of diversity showed different patterns of change during succession. Between early and early-mid succession, species richness increased but there was no increase in functional or phylogenetic diversity. Higher than predicted levels of functional similarity between species within the early and early-mid successional stages, indicate that abiotic filters have selected for sets of functionally similar species within sites. Between late-mid and late succession, there was no further increase in species richness, but a significant increase in functional alpha diversity, suggesting that functionally redundant species were replaced by functionally more dissimilar species. Functional turnover between stages was higher than predicted, and higher than within-stage turnover, indicating that different assembly processes act at different successional stages. 4. Synthesis. Analysis of spatial and temporal turnover in different facets of diversity suggests that deterministic processes generate biodiversity during post-disturbance ecosystem development and that the relative importance of assembly processes has changed over time. Trait-mediated abiotic filtering appears to play an important role in community assembly during the early and early-mid stages of arable-to-grassland succession, whereas the relative importance of competitive exclusion appears to have increased towards the later successional stages. Phylogenetic diversity provided a poor reflection of functional diversity and did not contribute to inferences about underlying assembly processes. Functionally deterministic assembly suggests that it may be possible to predict future post-disturbance changes in biodiversity, and associated ecosystem attributes, on the basis of species’ functional traits but not phylogeny.
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| 9. |
- Purschke, Oliver, et al.
(författare)
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Interactive effects of landscape history and current management on dispersal trait diversity in grassland plant communities
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2745 .- 0022-0477. ; 102:2, s. 437-446
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Summary Plant communities and their ecosystem functions are expected to be more resilient to future habitat fragmentation and deterioration if the species comprising the communities have a wide range of dispersal and persistence strategies. However, the extent to which the diversity of dispersal and persistence traits in plant communities is determined by the current and historical characteristics of sites and their surrounding landscape has yet to be explored. Using quantitative information on long-distance seed dispersal potential by wind and animals (dispersal in space) and on species' persistence/longevity (dispersal in time), we (i) compared levels of dispersal and persistence trait diversity (functional richness, FRic, and functional divergence, FDiv) in seminatural grassland plant communities with those expected by chance, and (ii) quantified the extent to which trait diversity was explained by current and historical landscape structure and local management history – taking into account spatial and phylogenetic autocorrel. Null model analysis revealed that more grassland communities than expected had a level of trait diversity that was lower or higher than predicted, given the level of species richness. Both the range (FRic) and divergence (FDiv) of dispersal and persistence trait values increased with grassland age. FDiv was mainly explained by the interaction between current grazing intensity and the amount of grassland habitat in the surrounding landscape in 1938. Synthesis. The study suggests that the variability of dispersal and persistence traits in grassland plant communities is driven by deterministic assembly processes, with both history and current management (and their interactions), playing a major role as determinants of trait diversity. While a long continuity of grazing management is likely to have promoted the diversity of dispersal and persistence traits in present-day grasslands, communities in sites that are well grazed at the present day, and were also surrounded by large amounts of grassland in the past, showed the highest diversity of dispersal and persistence strategies. Our results indicate that the historical context of a site within a landscape will influence the extent to which current grazing management is able to maintain a diversity of dispersal and persistence strategies and buffer communities (and their associated functions) against continuing habitat fragmentation.
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| 10. |
- Purschke, Oliver, et al.
(författare)
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Linking landscape history and dispersal traits in grassland plant communities
- 2012
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Ingår i: Oecologia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-1939 .- 0029-8549. ; 168:3, s. 773-783
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dispersal limitation and long-term persistence are known to delay plant species’ responses to habitat fragmentation, but it is still unclear to what extent landscape history may explain the distribution of dispersal traits in present-day plant communities. We used quantitative data on long-distance seed dispersal potential by wind and grazing cattle (epi- and endozoochory), and on persistence (adult plant longevity and seed bank persistence) to quantify the linkages between dispersal and persistence traits in grassland plant communities and current and past landscape configurations. The long-distance dispersal potential of present-day communities was positively associated with the amounts of grassland in the historical (1835, 1938) landscape, and with a long continuity of grazing management— but was not associated with the properties of the current landscape. The study emphasises the role of history as a determinant of the dispersal potential of present-day grassland plant communities. The importance of long-distance dispersal processes has declined in the increasingly fragmented modern landscape, and long-term persistent species are expected to play a more dominant role in grassland communities in the future. However, even within highly fragmented landscapes, long-distance dispersed species may persist locally—delaying the repayment of the extinction debt.
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