| 1. |
- Blenckner, Thorsten, et al.
(författare)
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Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures
- 2015
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 282:1803
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socioeconomic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million E per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change.
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| 2. |
- Hess, Timo, et al.
(författare)
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Dissecting the genetic heterogeneity of gastric cancer
- 2023
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Ingår i: EBioMedicine. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3964. ; 92
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Gastric cancer (GC) is clinically heterogenous according to location (cardia/non-cardia) and histopathology (diffuse/intestinal). We aimed to characterize the genetic risk architecture of GC according to its subtypes. Another aim was to examine whether cardia GC and oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) and its precursor lesion Barrett's oesophagus (BO), which are all located at the gastro-oesophageal junction (GOJ), share polygenic risk architecture.Methods: We did a meta-analysis of ten European genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of GC and its subtypes. All patients had a histopathologically confirmed diagnosis of gastric adenocarcinoma. For the identification of risk genes among GWAS loci we did a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) and expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) study from gastric corpus and antrum mucosa. To test whether cardia GC and OAC/BO share genetic aetiology we also used a European GWAS sample with OAC/BO.Findings: Our GWAS consisting of 5816 patients and 10,999 controls highlights the genetic heterogeneity of GC according to its subtypes. We newly identified two and replicated five GC risk loci, all of them with subtype-specific association. The gastric transcriptome data consisting of 361 corpus and 342 antrum mucosa samples revealed that an upregulated expression of MUC1, ANKRD50, PTGER4, and PSCA are plausible GC-pathomechanisms at four GWAS loci. At another risk locus, we found that the blood-group 0 exerts protective effects for non-cardia and diffuse GC, while blood-group A increases risk for both GC subtypes. Furthermore, our GWAS on cardia GC and OAC/BO (10,279 patients, 16,527 controls) showed that both cancer entities share genetic aetiology at the polygenic level and identified two new risk loci on the single-marker level.Interpretation: Our findings show that the pathophysiology of GC is genetically heterogenous according to location and histopathology. Moreover, our findings point to common molecular mechanisms underlying cardia GC and OAC/BO.
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| 3. |
- Islar, Mine, et al.
(författare)
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Diverse values of nature for sustainability
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 620, s. 813-823
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Twenty-five years since foundational publications on valuing ecosystem services for human well-being1,2, addressing the global biodiversity crisis3 still implies confronting barriers to incorporating nature’s diverse values into decision-making. These barriers include powerful interests supported by current norms and legal rules such as property rights, which determine whose values and which values of nature are acted on. A better understanding of how and why nature is (under)valued is more urgent than ever4. Notwithstanding agreements to incorporate nature’s values into actions, including the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF)5 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals6, predominant environmental and development policies still prioritize a subset of values, particularly those linked to markets, and ignore other ways people relate to and benefit from nature7. Arguably, a ‘values crisis’ underpins the intertwined crises of biodiversity loss and climate change8, pandemic emergence9 and socio-environmental injustices10. On the basis of more than 50,000 scientific publications, policy documents and Indigenous and local knowledge sources, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) assessed knowledge on nature’s diverse values and valuation methods to gain insights into their role in policymaking and fuller integration into decisions7,11. Applying this evidence, combinations of values-centred approaches are proposed to improve valuation and address barriers to uptake, ultimately leveraging transformative changes towards more just (that is, fair treatment of people and nature, including inter- and intragenerational equity) and sustainable futures.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Beery, Thomas H, et al.
(författare)
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Editorial: Nature's Contributions to People: On the Relation Between Valuations and Actions
- 2021
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-701X .- 1540-9309. ; 9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In line with other bodies and a manifold of researchers addressing contemporary environmental challenges, the Global Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, published by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES),concludes that a fundamental reorganization across technological, economic, and social factors, including values, is needed to achieve goals for conserving and sustainably using nature (IPBES,2019). This reorganization implies transformative changes, for example, in the production and consumption of energy, food, and fiber.While scientists and decision-makers increasingly acknowledge the need for transformative change, we lack specific definitions of the details of transformative change and agreement on how such change is ensured. However, by clarifying and assessing the multiple values of nature and its benefits, we understand what is at stake, for whom, and the tools for making priorities (Díaz et al., 2018, 2019). Valuation is, though, a means to an end. Likewise, increased awareness of the values of biodiversity is also a means to an end. The links between valuation, increasing awareness, and concrete actions, among policymakers and other decision-makers, including individuals, are crucial for transformative changes to start and proceed.These considerations reverse the established approach in economic valuation, according to which one uses observations about actual actions to infer the values the actor holds (“revealed preferences”). In line with this economic paradigm, the currently observed societal actions and resulting biodiversity change reveals a lack of societal valuation of nature’s contributions to people.If we would “transform our world,” as the UN’s Agenda 2030 demands, and with it the way societies act toward nature, this would reveal a new social valuation of nature’s contributions to people.Either way, there is a close relationship between actions and valuations.The articles in this Research Topic present insights from various perspectives and theoretical and methodological approaches on the connections between valuations of nature’s contributions to people, including ecosystem services, awareness, and concrete actions. The articles concern perceptions and actions among individuals and groups of people and aspects related to governance ranging from local to global scales, based on cases from various parts of the world.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Krämer, Martina, et al.
(författare)
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A microphysics guide to cirrus – Part 2 : Climatologies of clouds and humidity from observations
- 2020
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 20:21, s. 12569-12608
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study presents airborne in situ and satellite remote sensing climatologies of cirrus clouds and humidity. The climatologies serve as a guide to the properties of cirrus clouds, with the new in situ database providing detailed insights into boreal midlatitudes and the tropics, while the satellite-borne data set offers a global overview.To this end, an extensive, quality-checked data archive, the Cirrus Guide II in situ database, is created from airborne in situ measurements during 150 flights in 24 campaigns. The archive contains meteorological parameters, ice water content (IWC), ice crystal number concentration (Nice), ice crystal mean mass radius (Rice), relative humidity with respect to ice (RHice), and water vapor mixing ratio (H2O) for each of the flights. Depending on the parameter, the database has been extended by about a factor of 5–10 compared to earlier studies.As one result of our investigation, we show that the medians of Nice, Rice, and RHice have distinct patterns in the IWC–T parameter space. Lookup tables of these variables as functions of IWC and T can be used to improve global model cirrus representation and remote sensing retrieval methods. Another outcome of our investigation is that across all latitudes, the thicker liquid-origin cirrus predominate at lower altitudes, while at higher altitudes the thinner in situ-origin cirrus prevail. Further, examination of the radiative characteristics of in situ-origin and liquid-origin cirrus shows that the in situ-origin cirrus only slightly warm the atmosphere, while liquid-origin cirrus have a strong cooling effect.An important step in completing the Cirrus Guide II is the provision of the global cirrus Nice climatology, derived by means of the retrieval algorithm DARDAR-Nice from 10 years of cirrus remote sensing observations from satellite. The in situ measurement database has been used to evaluate and improve the satellite observations. We found that the global median Nice from satellite observations is almost 2 times higher than the in situ median and increases slightly with decreasing temperature. Nice medians of the most frequently occurring cirrus sorted by geographical regions are highest in the tropics, followed by austral and boreal midlatitudes, Antarctica, and the Arctic. Since the satellite climatologies enclose the entire spatial and temporal Nice occurrence, we could deduce that half of the cirrus are located in the lowest, warmest (224–242 K) cirrus layer and contain a significant amount of liquid-origin cirrus.A specific highlight of the study is the in situ observations of cirrus and humidity in the Asian monsoon anticyclone and the comparison to the surrounding tropics. In the convectively very active Asian monsoon, peak values of Nice and IWC of 30 cm−3 and 1000 ppmv are detected around the cold point tropopause (CPT). Above the CPT, ice particles that are convectively injected can locally add a significant amount of water available for exchange with the stratosphere. We found IWCs of up to 8 ppmv in the Asian monsoon in comparison to only 2 ppmv in the surrounding tropics. Also, the highest RHice values (120 %–150 %) inside of clouds and in clear sky are observed around and above the CPT. We attribute this to the high H2O mixing ratios (typically 3–5 ppmv) observed in the Asian monsoon compared to 1.5 to 3 ppmv found in the tropics. Above the CPT, supersaturations of 10 %–20 % are observed in regions of weak convective activity and up to about 50 % in the Asian monsoon. This implies that the water available for transport into the stratosphere might be higher than the expected saturation value.
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| 8. |
- Lade, Steven J., et al.
(författare)
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An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts
- 2015
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 112:35, s. 11120-11125
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.
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| 9. |
- Nielsen, Rasmus J., et al.
(författare)
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Integrated ecological–economic fisheries models—Evaluation, review and challenges for implementation
- 2018
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Ingår i: Fish and Fisheries. - : Wiley. - 1467-2960 .- 1467-2979. ; 19:1, s. 1-29
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Marine ecosystems evolve under many interconnected and area-specific pressures. To fulfil society's intensifying and diversifying needs while ensuring ecologically sustainable development, more effective marine spatial planning and broader-scope management of marine resources is necessary. Integrated ecological–economic fisheries models (IEEFMs) of marine systems are needed to evaluate impacts and sustainability of potential management actions and understand, and anticipate ecological, economic and social dynamics at a range of scales from local to national and regional. To make these models most effective, it is important to determine how model characteristics and methods of communicating results influence the model implementation, the nature of the advice that can be provided and the impact on decisions taken by managers. This article presents a global review and comparative evaluation of 35 IEEFMs applied to marine fisheries and marine ecosystem resources to identify the characteristics that determine their usefulness, effectiveness and implementation. The focus is on fully integrated models that allow for feedbacks between ecological and human processes although not all the models reviewed achieve that. Modellers must invest more time to make models user friendly and to participate in management fora where models and model results can be explained and discussed. Such involvement is beneficial to all parties, leading to improvement of models and more effective implementation of advice, but demands substantial resources which must be built into the governance process. It takes time to develop effective processes for using IEEFMs requiring a long-term commitment to integrating multidisciplinary modelling advice into management decision-making.
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| 10. |
- Pascual, Unai, et al.
(författare)
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Valuing nature's contributions to people : the IPBES approach
- 2017
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Ingår i: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. - : Elsevier BV. - 1877-3435. ; 26-27, s. 7-16
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nature is perceived and valued in starkly different and often conflicting ways. This paper presents the rationale for the inclusive valuation of nature's contributions to people (NCP) in decision making, as well as broad methodological steps for doing so. While developed within the context of the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), this approach is more widely applicable to initiatives at the knowledge–policy interface, which require a pluralistic approach to recognizing the diversity of values. We argue that transformative practices aiming at sustainable futures would benefit from embracing such diversity, which require recognizing and addressing power relationships across stakeholder groups that hold different values on human nature-relations and NCP.
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