| 1. |
- Pauchard, Anibal, et al.
(författare)
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Non-native and native organisms moving into high elevation and high latitude ecosystems in an era of climate change : new challenges for ecology and conservation
- 2016
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Ingår i: Biological Invasions. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1387-3547 .- 1573-1464. ; 18:2, s. 345-353
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cold environments at high elevation and high latitude are often viewed as resistant to biological invasions. However, climate warming, land use change and associated increased connectivity all increase the risk of biological invasions in these environments. Here we present a summary of the key discussions of the workshop 'Biosecurity in Mountains and Northern Ecosystems: Current Status and Future Challenges' (Flen, Sweden, 1-3 June 2015). The aims of the workshop were to (1) increase awareness about the growing importance of species expansion-both non-native and native-at high elevation and high latitude with climate change, (2) review existing knowledge about invasion risks in these areas, and (3) encourage more research on how species will move and interact in cold environments, the consequences for biodiversity, and animal and human health and wellbeing. The diversity of potential and actual invaders reported at the workshop and the likely interactions between them create major challenges for managers of cold environments. However, since these cold environments have experienced fewer invasions when compared with many warmer, more populated environments, prevention has a real chance of success, especially if it is coupled with prioritisation schemes for targeting invaders likely to have greatest impact. Communication and co-operation between cold environment regions will facilitate rapid response, and maximise the use of limited research and management resources.
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| 2. |
- Pérez-Granados, Cristian, et al.
(författare)
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European scenarios for future biological invasions
- 2024
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Ingår i: People and Nature. - 2575-8314. ; 6:1, s. 245-259
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature's contributions to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales.Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy-relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur-ASNs).We compared the Eur-ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global-ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale-dependent differences across scenarios.We also compared the Global- and Eur-ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio-economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives.Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent but complementary scenarios focussed on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we implemented and presented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change, including biological invasions.
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| 3. |
- Roura-Pascual, Núria, et al.
(författare)
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A scenario-guided strategy for the future management of biological invasions
- 2024
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. - 1540-9295 .- 1540-9309. ; 22:4
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Future dynamics of biological invasions are highly uncertain because they depend on multiple social-ecological drivers. We used a scenario-based approach to explore potential management options for invasive species in Europe. During two workshops involving a multidisciplinary team of experts, we developed a management strategy arranged into 19 goals relating to policy, research, public awareness, and biosecurity. We conceived solutions for achieving these goals under different plausible future scenarios, and identified four interrelated recommendations around which any long-term strategy for managing invasive species can be structured: (1) a European biosecurity regime, (2) a dedicated communication strategy, (3) data standardization and management tools, and (4) a monitoring and assessment system. Finally, we assessed the feasibility of the management strategy and found substantial differences among scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate that it is time for a new strategy for managing biological invasions in Europe, one that is based on a more integrative approach across socioeconomic sectors and countries.
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| 4. |
- Roura-Pascual, Núria, et al.
(författare)
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Alternative futures for global biological invasions
- 2021
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Ingår i: Sustainability Science. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-4065 .- 1862-4057. ; 16:5, s. 1637-1650
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used two axes scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlights that socioeconomic developments and technological innovation have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known drivers, such as climate and human land use change and global trade. Our scenarios partially align with the shared socioeconomic pathways created by the climate change research community. Several factors that drive differences in biological invasions were underrepresented in the shared socioeconomic pathways; in particular, the implementation of biosecurity policies. We argue that including factors related to public environmental awareness and technological and trade development in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments and thereby obtain a more integrative picture of future social-ecological developments.
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| 5. |
- Ustun, Celalettin, et al.
(författare)
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Hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation for advanced systemic mastocytosis
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - 0732-183X .- 1527-7755. ; 32:29, s. 3264-3274
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PURPOSE: Advanced systemic mastocytosis (SM), a fatal hematopoietic malignancy characterized by drug resistance, has no standard therapy. The effectiveness of allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (alloHCT) in SM remains unknown.PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a global effort to define the value of HCT in SM, 57 patients with the following subtypes of SM were evaluated: SM associated with clonal hematologic non-mast cell disorders (SM-AHNMD; n = 38), mast cell leukemia (MCL; n = 12), and aggressive SM (ASM; n = 7). Median age of patients was 46 years (range, 11 to 67 years). Donors were HLA-identical (n = 34), unrelated (n = 17), umbilical cord blood (n = 2), HLA-haploidentical (n = 1), or unknown (n = 3). Thirty-six patients received myeloablative conditioning (MAC), and 21 patients received reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC).RESULTS: Responses in SM were observed in 40 patients (70%), with complete remission in 16 patients (28%). Twelve patients (21%) had stable disease, and five patients (9%) had primary refractory disease. Overall survival (OS) at 3 years was 57% for all patients, 74% for patients with SM-AHNMD, 43% for those with ASM, and 17% for those with MCL. The strongest risk factor for poor OS was MCL. Survival was also lower in patients receiving RIC compared with MAC and in patients having progression compared with patients having stable disease or response.CONCLUSION: AlloHCT was associated with long-term survival in patients with advanced SM. Although alloHCT may be considered as a viable and potentially curative therapeutic option for advanced SM in the meantime, given that this is a retrospective analysis with no control group, the definitive role of alloHCT will need to be determined by a prospective trial.
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