| 1. |
- Brovkin, Victor, et al.
(författare)
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Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 14:8, s. 550-558
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- A synthesis of intervals of rapid climatic change evident in the geological record reveals some of the Earth system processes and tipping points that could lead to similar events in the future. The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate-ecological-social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.
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| 2. |
- Mulvaney, Robert, et al.
(författare)
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The ST22 chronology for the Skytrain Ice Rise ice core - Part 2 : An age model to the last interglacial and disturbed deep stratigraphy
- 2023
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - 1814-9324. ; 19:4, s. 851-864
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present an age model for the 651g€¯m deep ice core from Skytrain Ice Rise, situated inland of the Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica. The top 2000 years have previously been dated using age markers interpolated through annual layer counting. Below this, we align the Skytrain core to the AICC2012 age model using tie points in the ice and air phase, and we apply the Paleochrono program to obtain the best fit to the tie points and glaciological constraints. In the gas phase, ties are made using methane and, in critical sections, δ18Oair; in the ice phase ties are through 10Be across the Laschamps event and through ice chemistry related to long-range dust transport and deposition. This strategy provides a good outcome to about 108g€¯ka (g1/4g€¯605g€¯m). Beyond that there are signs of flow disturbance, with a section of ice probably repeated. Nonetheless values of CH4 and δ18Oair confirm that part of the last interglacial (LIG), from about 117-126g€¯ka (617-627g€¯m), is present and in chronological order. Below this there are clear signs of stratigraphic disturbance, with rapid oscillation of values in both the ice and gas phase at the base of the LIG section, below 628g€¯m. Based on methane values, the warmest part of the LIG and the coldest part of the penultimate glacial are missing from our record. Ice below 631g€¯m appears to be of ageg€¯>g€¯150g€¯ka.
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| 3. |
- Sigl, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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The WAIS Divide deep ice core WD2014 chronology - Part 2 : Annual-layer counting (0-31 ka BP)
- 2016
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 12:3, s. 769-786
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the WD2014 chronology for the upper part (0-2850 m; 31.2 ka BP) of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide (WD) ice core. The chronology is based on counting of annual layers observed in the chemical, dust and electrical conductivity records. These layers are caused by seasonal changes in the source, transport, and deposition of aerosols. The measurements were interpreted manually and with the aid of two automated methods. We validated the chronology by comparing to two high-accuracy, absolutely dated chronologies. For the Holocene, the cosmogenic isotope records of 10Be from WAIS Divide and 14C for IntCal13 demonstrated that WD2014 was consistently accurate to better than 0.5 % of the age. For the glacial period, comparisons to the Hulu Cave chronology demonstrated that WD2014 had an accuracy of better than 1 % of the age at three abrupt climate change events between 27 and 31 ka. WD2014 has consistently younger ages than Greenland ice core chronologies during most of the Holocene. For the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition (11.595 ka; 24 years younger) and the Bølling-Allerød Warming (14.621 ka; 7 years younger), WD2014 ages are within the combined uncertainties of the timescales. Given its high accuracy, WD2014 can become a reference chronology for the Southern Hemisphere, with synchronization to other chronologies feasible using high-quality proxies of volcanism, solar activity, atmospheric mineral dust, and atmospheric methane concentrations.
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| 4. |
- Szwedo, Aleksandra A, et al.
(författare)
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GBA and APOE impact cognitive decline in Parkinson's disease : A 10-year population-based study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Movement Disorders. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0885-3185 .- 1531-8257. ; 37:5, s. 1016-1027
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Common genetic variance in apolipoprotein E (APOE), β-glucocerebrosidase (GBA), microtubule-associated protein tau (MAPT), and α-synuclein (SNCA) has been linked to cognitive decline in Parkinson's disease (PD), although studies have yielded mixed results.OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of genetic variants in APOE, GBA, MAPT, and SNCA on cognitive decline and risk of dementia in a pooled analysis of six longitudinal, non-selective, population-based cohorts of newly diagnosed PD patients.METHODS: 1002 PD patients, followed for up to 10 years (median 7.2 years), were genotyped for at least one of APOE-ε4, GBA mutations, MAPT H1/H2, or SNCA rs356219. We evaluated the effect of genotype on the rate of cognitive decline (Mini-Mental State Examanation, MMSE) using linear mixed models and the development of dementia (diagnosed using standardized criteria) using Cox regression; multiple comparisons were accounted for using Benjamini-Hochberg corrections.RESULTS: Carriers of APOE-ε4 (n = 281, 29.7%) and GBA mutations (n = 100, 10.3%) had faster cognitive decline and were at higher risk of progression to dementia (APOE-ε4, HR 3.57, P < 0.001; GBA mutations, HR 1.76, P = 0.001) than non-carriers. The risk of cognitive decline and dementia (HR 5.19, P < 0.001) was further increased in carriers of both risk genotypes (n = 23). No significant effects were observed for MAPT or SNCA rs356219.CONCLUSIONS: GBA and APOE genotyping could improve the prediction of cognitive decline in PD, which is important to inform the clinical trial selection and potentially to enable personalized treatment © 2022 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.
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