| 1. |
- Blösch, Günter, et al.
(författare)
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Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) - a community perspective
- 2019
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 64:10, s. 1141-1158
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.
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| 2. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating Multiple Research Methods to Unravel the Complexity of Human-Water Systems
- 2021
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Ingår i: AGU Advances. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2576-604X. ; 2:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Predicting floods and droughts is essential to inform the development of policy in water management, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Yet, hydrological predictions are highly uncertain, while the frequency, severity and spatial distribution of extreme events are further complicated by the increasing impact of human activities on the water cycle. In this commentary, we argue that four main aspects characterizing the complexity of human-water systems should be explicitly addressed: feedbacks, scales, tradeoffs and inequalities. We propose the integration of multiple research methods as a way to cope with complexity and develop policy-relevant science.Plain Language SummarySeveral governments today claim to be following the science in addressing crises caused by the occurrence of extreme events, such as floods and droughts, or the emergence of global threats, such as climate change and COVID-19. In this commentary, we show that there are no universal answers to apparently simple questions such as: Do levees reduce flood risk? Do reservoirs alleviate droughts? We argue that the best science we have consists of a plurality of legitimate interpretations and a range of foresights, which can be enriched by integrating multiple disciplines and research methods.
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| 3. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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Multiple hazards and risk perceptions over time : the availability heuristic in Italy and Sweden under COVID-19
- 2021
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Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 21:11, s. 3439-3447
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The severe impact of global crises, such as COVID-19 and climate change, is plausibly reshaping the way in which people perceive risks. In this paper, we examine and compare how global crises and local disasters influence public perceptions of multiple hazards in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we integrate information about the occurrence of hazardous events with the results of two nationwide surveys. These included more than 4000 participants and were conducted in two different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic corresponding to low (August 2020) and high (November 2020) levels of infection rates. We found that, in both countries, people are more worried about risks related to experienced events. This is in line with the cognitive process known as the availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind. Epidemics, for example, are perceived as less likely and more impactful in Italy compared to Sweden. This outcome can be explained by cross-country differences in the impact of, as well as governmental responses to, COVID-19. Notwithstanding the ongoing pandemic, people in both Italy and Sweden are highly concerned about climate change, and they rank it as the most likely threat.
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| 4. |
- Mondino, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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Public perceptions of multiple risks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and Sweden
- 2020
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2052-4463. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Knowing how people perceive multiple risks is essential to the management and promotion of public health and safety. Here we present a dataset based on a survey (N = 4,154) of public risk perception in Italy and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both countries were heavily affected by the first wave of infections in Spring 2020, but their governmental responses were very different. As such, the dataset offers unique opportunities to investigate the role of governmental responses in shaping public risk perception. In addition to epidemics, the survey considered indirect effects of COVID-19 (domestic violence, economic crises), as well as global (climate change) and local (wildfires, floods, droughts, earthquakes, terror attacks) threats. The survey examines perceived likelihoods and impacts, individual and authorities' preparedness and knowledge, and socio-demographic indicators. Hence, the resulting dataset has the potential to enable a plethora of analyses on social, cultural and institutional factors influencing the way in which people perceive risk.
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| 5. |
- Ridolfi, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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Hydrological risk : modeling flood memory and human proximity to rivers
- 2021
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Ingår i: Hydrology Research. - : IWA Publishing. - 1998-9563 .- 2224-7955 .- 0029-1277. ; 52:1, s. 241-252
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent literature in sociohydrology has shown the important role of flood memory in shaping hydrological risk. In this paper, we present a system dynamics model of human–flood interactions that simulates how the river proximity of human settlements is altered by changes in flood memory. We also compare our model outcomes with an unprecedented dataset consisting of historical and archeological observations of human settlements in Czech Republic that have been affected by major flood events. This comparison allows us to evaluate the potentials and limitations of our sociohydrological model in capturing essential features of flood risk changes, including the process of resettling farther and closer to the river. Our results show that the accumulation (and decay) of collective memory has potential in explaining temporal changes of flood risk driven by the occurrence (or absence) of major events. As such, this study contributes to advancing knowledge about the complex dynamics of human–water systems, while providing useful insights in the field of flood risk reduction.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Alonso Vicario, S., et al.
(författare)
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Unravelling the influence of human behaviour on reducing casualties during flood evacuation
- 2020
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 65:14, s. 2359-2375
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Floods are the natural hazards that are causing the most deaths worldwide. Flood early warning systems are one of the most cost-efficient methods to reduce death rates, triggering decisions about the evacuation of exposed population. Although previous studies have investigated the effect of human behaviours on evacuation processes, studies analysing a combination of behaviours, flood onset and warning timing are limited. Our objective is to explore how changes on the aforementioned factors can affect casualties. This is done within a modelling framework that includes an agent-based model, a hydraulic model, and a traffic model, which is implemented for the case study of Orvieto (Italy). The results show that the number of casualties is most impacted by people's behaviour. Besides, we found that a delay of 30 min in releasing the warning can boost the number of casualties up to six times. These results may help managers to propose effective emergency plans.
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| 8. |
- Bertini, Claudia, et al.
(författare)
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An entropy-based approach for the optimization of rain gauge network using satellite and ground-based data
- 2021
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Ingår i: Hydrology Research. - : IWA Publishing. - 1998-9563 .- 2224-7955 .- 0029-1277. ; 52:3, s. 620-635
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Accurate and precise rainfall records are crucial for hydrological applications and water resources management. The accuracy and continuity of ground-based time series rely on the density and distribution of rain gauges over territories. In the context of a decline of rain gauge distribution, how to optimize and design optimal networks is still an unsolved issue. In this work, we present a method to optimize a ground-based rainfall network using satellite-based observations, maximizing the information content of the network. We combine Climate Prediction Center MORPhing technique (CMORPH) observations at ungauged locations with an existing rain gauge network in the Rio das Velhas catchment, in Brazil. We use a greedy ranking algorithm to rank the potential locations to place new sensors, based on their contribution to the joint entropy of the network. Results show that the most informative locations in the catchment correspond to those areas with the highest rainfall variability and that satellite observations can be successfully employed to optimize rainfall monitoring networks.
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| 9. |
- Bertini, Claudia, et al.
(författare)
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On the Use of Satellite Rainfall Data to Design a Dam in an Ungauged Site
- 2020
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Ingår i: Water. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-4441. ; 12:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The estimation of the design peak discharge is crucial for the hydrological design of hydraulic structures. A commonly used approach is to estimate the design storm through the intensity-duration-area-frequency (IDAF) curves and then use it to generate the design discharge through a hydrological model. In ungauged areas, IDAF curves and design discharges are derived throughout regionalization studies, if any exist for the area of interest, or from using the hydrological information of the closest and most similar gauged place. However, many regions around the globe remain ungauged or are very poorly gauged. In this regard, a unique opportunity is provided by satellite precipitation products developed and improved in the last decades. In this paper, we show weaknesses and potentials of satellite data and, for the first time, we evaluate their applicability for design purposes. We employ CMORPH-Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique satellite precipitation estimates to build IDAF curves and derive the design peak discharges for the Pietrarossa dam catchment in southern Italy. Results are compared with the corresponding one provided by a regionalization study, i.e., VAPI-VAlutazione delle Piene in Italia project, usually used in Italy in ungauged areas. Results show that CMORPH performed well for the estimation of low duration and small return periods storm events, while for high return period storms, further research is still needed.
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| 10. |
- Bertini, Claudia, et al.
(författare)
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Optima Rain Gauge Network Design Based On Multi-Objective Optimization Approach
- 2020
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Ingår i: International conference on numerical analysis and applied mathematics ICNAAM 2019. - : AIP Publishing. - 9780735440258
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Precipitation is a main input to many hydrological applications, such as water management, flood forecasting and hydrological modelling. The goodness of the rainfall field estimation can thus affect their performances. Despite radar-based and satellite-based measurements have nowadays become very common and accurate, rain gauges monitoring stations are still needed. The gauge density and its spatial distribution are two of the key factors influencing the accuracy in precipitation estimation. Even if in the last decades many studies proposed several methodologies for the design of optimal monitoring networks, only few studies use hydrological model performance as a design criterion. The purpose of this study is to define the optimal rain gauge network for the Mignone River catchment (Italy). The optimal network is defined through a multi-objective optimization approach, where the interpolation error of precipitation is minimised and the performance of a hydrological model based on the Width Function Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph theory is maximised. The optimization is run both without and with constraints, which are based on rainfall patterns. A score to choose the best set of points in the Pareto front is presented. The results suggest that there are preferential areas where sensors locations achieve optimal interpolation error and model performance.
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