| 1. |
- Breznau, Nate, et al.
(författare)
-
Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:44
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study explores how researchers analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each teams workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
|
|
| 2. |
- Angelopoulos, Michael, et al.
(författare)
-
Deciphering the Properties of Different Arctic Ice Types During the Growth Phase of MOSAiC: Implications for Future Studies on Gas Pathways
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Frontiers in Earth Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-6463. ; 10, s. 1-19
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The increased fraction of first year ice (FYI) at the expense of old ice (second-year ice (SYI) and multi-year ice (MYI)) likely affects the permeability of the Arctic ice cover. This in turn influences the pathways of gases circulating therein and the exchange at interfaces with the atmosphere and ocean. We present sea ice temperature and salinity time series from different ice types relevant to temporal development of sea ice permeability and brine drainage efficiency from freeze-up in October to the onset of spring warming in May. Our study is based on a dataset collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Expedition in 2019 and 2020. These physical properties were used to derive sea ice permeability and Rayleigh numbers. The main sites included FYI and SYI. The latter was composed of an upper layer of residual ice that had desalinated but survived the previous summer melt and became SYI. Below this ice a layer of new first-year ice formed. As the layer of new first-year ice has no direct contact with the atmosphere, we call it insulated first-year ice (IFYI). The residual/SYI-layer also contained refrozen melt ponds in some areas. During the freezing season, the residual/SYI-layer was consistently impermeable, acting as barrier for gas exchange between the atmosphere and ocean. While both FYI and SYI temperatures responded similarly to atmospheric warming events, SYI was more resilient to brine volume fraction changes because of its low salinity (< 2). Furthermore, later bottom ice growth during spring warming was observed for SYI in comparison to FYI. The projected increase in the fraction of more permeable FYI in autumn and spring in the coming decades may favor gas exchange at the atmosphere-ice interface when sea ice acts as a source relative to the atmosphere. While the areal extent of old ice is decreasing, so is its thickness at the onset of freeze-up. Our study sets the foundation for studies on gas dynamics within the ice column and the gas exchange at both ice interfaces, i.e. with the atmosphere and the ocean.
|
|
| 3. |
- Bowers, Robert M., et al.
(författare)
-
Minimum information about a single amplified genome (MISAG) and a metagenome-assembled genome (MIMAG) of bacteria and archaea
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Nature Biotechnology. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 1087-0156 .- 1546-1696. ; 35:8, s. 725-731
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present two standards developed by the Genomic Standards Consortium (GSC) for reporting bacterial and archaeal genome sequences. Both are extensions of the Minimum Information about Any (x) Sequence (MIxS). The standards are the Minimum Information about a Single Amplified Genome (MISAG) and the Minimum Information about a Metagenome-Assembled Genome (MIMAG), including, but not limited to, assembly quality, and estimates of genome completeness and contamination. These standards can be used in combination with other GSC checklists, including the Minimum Information about a Genome Sequence (MIGS), Minimum Information about a Metagenomic Sequence (MIMS), and Minimum Information about a Marker Gene Sequence (MIMARKS). Community-wide adoption of MISAG and MIMAG will facilitate more robust comparative genomic analyses of bacterial and archaeal diversity.
|
|
| 4. |
- Dombrowski, Nina, et al.
(författare)
-
Undinarchaeota illuminate DPANN phylogeny and the impact of gene transfer on archaeal evolution
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The recently discovered DPANN archaea are a potentially deep-branching, monophyletic radiation of organisms with small cells and genomes. However, the monophyly and early emergence of the various DPANN clades and their role in life's evolution are debated. Here, we reconstructed and analysed genomes of an uncharacterized archaeal phylum (Candidatus Undinarchaeota), revealing that its members have small genomes and, while potentially being able to conserve energy through fermentation, likely depend on partner organisms for the acquisition of certain metabolites. Our phylogenomic analyses robustly place Undinarchaeota as an independent lineage between two highly supported 'DPANN' clans. Further, our analyses suggest that DPANN have exchanged core genes with their hosts, adding to the difficulty of placing DPANN in the tree of life. This pattern can be sufficiently dominant to allow identifying known symbiont-host clades based on routes of gene transfer. Together, our work provides insights into the origins and evolution of DPANN and their hosts. The evolutionary relationships within Archaea remain unresolved. Here, the authors used genomic approaches to study the Undinarchaeota, a previously uncharacterized clade of DPANN, shed light on their position in an updated archaeal phylogeny and illuminate the history of archaeal genome evolution.
|
|
| 5. |
- McGuire, A. David, et al.
(författare)
-
Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 30:7, s. 1015-1037
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8x10(3)km(2)yr(-1)). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954TgCyr(-1) between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982-2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.
|
|
| 6. |
- Stockwell, Jason D., et al.
(författare)
-
Storm impacts on phytoplankton community dynamics in lakes
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : WILEY. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:5, s. 2756-2784
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- In many regions across the globe, extreme weather events such as storms have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration due to climate change. Ecological theory predicts that such extreme events should have large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. High winds and precipitation associated with storms can affect lakes via short-term runoff events from watersheds and physical mixing of the water column. In addition, lakes connected to rivers and streams will also experience flushing due to high flow rates. Although we have a well-developed understanding of how wind and precipitation events can alter lake physical processes and some aspects of biogeochemical cycling, our mechanistic understanding of the emergent responses of phytoplankton communities is poor. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis that identifies how storms interact with lake and watershed attributes and their antecedent conditions to generate changes in lake physical and chemical environments. Such changes can restructure phytoplankton communities and their dynamics, as well as result in altered ecological function (e.g., carbon, nutrient and energy cycling) in the short- and long-term. We summarize the current understanding of storm-induced phytoplankton dynamics, identify knowledge gaps with a systematic review of the literature, and suggest future research directions across a gradient of lake types and environmental conditions.
|
|
