| 1. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Feng, Shaohong, et al.
(författare)
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Dense sampling of bird diversity increases power of comparative genomics
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 587:7833
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Whole-genome sequencing projects are increasingly populating the tree of life and characterizing biodiversity(1-4). Sparse taxon sampling has previously been proposed to confound phylogenetic inference(5), and captures only a fraction of the genomic diversity. Here we report a substantial step towards the dense representation of avian phylogenetic and molecular diversity, by analysing 363 genomes from 92.4% of bird families-including 267 newly sequenced genomes produced for phase II of the Bird 10,000 Genomes (B10K) Project. We use this comparative genome dataset in combination with a pipeline that leverages a reference-free whole-genome alignment to identify orthologous regions in greater numbers than has previously been possible and to recognize genomic novelties in particular bird lineages. The densely sampled alignment provides a single-base-pair map of selection, has more than doubled the fraction of bases that are confidently predicted to be under conservation and reveals extensive patterns of weak selection in predominantly non-coding DNA. Our results demonstrate that increasing the diversity of genomes used in comparative studies can reveal more shared and lineage-specific variation, and improve the investigation of genomic characteristics. We anticipate that this genomic resource will offer new perspectives on evolutionary processes in cross-species comparative analyses and assist in efforts to conserve species. A dataset of the genomes of 363 species from the Bird 10,000 Genomes Project shows increased power to detect shared and lineage-specific variation, demonstrating the importance of phylogenetically diverse taxon sampling in whole-genome sequencing.
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| 3. |
- Oliveros, Carl H., et al.
(författare)
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Earth history and the passerine superradiation
- 2019
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 116:16, s. 7916-7925
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Avian diversification has been influenced by global climate change, plate tectonic movements, and mass extinction events. However, the impact of these factors on the diversification of the hyper-diverse perching birds (passerines) is unclear because family level relationships are unresolved and the timing of splitting events among lineages is uncertain. We analyzed DNA data from 4,060 nuclear loci and 137 passerine families using concatenation and coalescent approaches to infer a comprehensive phylogenetic hypothesis that clarifies relationships among all passerine families. Then, we calibrated this phylogeny using 13 fossils to examine the effects of different events in Earth history on the timing and rate of passerine diversification. Our analyses reconcile passerine diversification with the fossil and geological records; suggest that passerines originated on the Australian landmass ∼47 Ma; and show that subsequent dispersal and diversification of passerines was affected by a number of climatological and geological events, such as Oligocene glaciation and inundation of the New Zealand landmass. Although passerine diversification rates fluctuated throughout the Cenozoic, we find no link between the rate of passerine diversification and Cenozoic global temperature, and our analyses show that the increases in passerine diversification rate we observe are disconnected from the colonization of new continents. Taken together, these results suggest more complex mechanisms than temperature change or ecological opportunity have controlled macroscale patterns of passerine speciation.
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| 4. |
- Paquin-Proulx, D, et al.
(författare)
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Preferential and persistent impact of acute HIV-1 infection on CD4+ iNKT cells in colonic mucosa
- 2021
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 1091-6490. ; 118:46
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Evidence suggests that HIV-1 disease progression is determined in the early stages of infection. Here, preinfection invariant natural killer T (iNKT) cell levels were predictive of the peak viral load during acute HIV-1 infection (AHI). Furthermore, iNKT cells were preferentially lost in AHI. This was particularly striking in the colonic mucosa, where iNKT cells were depleted more profoundly than conventional CD4+T cells. The initiation of antiretroviral therapy during AHI-prevented iNKT cell dysregulation in peripheral blood but not in the colonic mucosa. Overall, our results support a model in which iNKT cells are early and preferential targets for HIV-1 infection during AHI.
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| 5. |
- West, Jay B., et al.
(författare)
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Comparison and evaluation of retrospective intermodality image registration techniques
- 1997
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Ingår i: SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering. - : SPIE - International Society for Optical Engineering. ; , s. 332-347
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- All retrospective image registration methods have attached to them some intrinsic estimate of registration error. However, this estimate of accuracy may not always be a good indicator of the distance between actual and estimated positions of targets within the cranial cavity. This paper describes a project whose principal goal is to use a prospective method based on fiducial markers as a ’gold standard’ to perform an objective, blinded evaluation of the accuracy of several retrospective image-to-image registration techniques. Image volumes of three modalities – CT, MR, and PET – were taken of patients undergoing neurosurgery at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. These volumes had all traces of the fiducial markers removed, and were provided to project collaborators outside Vanderbilt, who then performed retrospective registrations on the volumes, calculating transformations from CT to MR and/or from PET to MR, and communicated their transformations to Vanderbilt where the accuracy of each registration was evaluated. In this evaluation the accuracy is measured at multiple ’regions of interest,’ i.e. areas in the brain which would commonly be areas of neurological interest. A region is defined in the MR image and its centroid C is determined. Then the prospective registration is used to obtain the corresponding point C’ in CT or PET. To this point the retrospective registration is then applied, producing C’ in MR. Statistics are gathered on the target registration error (TRE), which is the disparity between the original point C and its corresponding point C’. A second goal of the project is to evaluate the importance of correcting geometrical distortion in MR images, by comparing the retrospective TRE in the rectified images, i.e., those which have had the distortion correction applied, with that of the same images before rectification. This paper presents preliminary results of this study along with a brief description of each registration technique and an estimate of both preparation and execution time needed to perform the registration.
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| 6. |
- Buggert, Marcus, et al.
(författare)
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Limited immune surveillance in lymphoid tissue by cytolytic CD4+ T cells during health and HIV disease
- 2018
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Ingår i: PLoS Pathogens. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-7374. ; 14:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- CD4+ T cells subsets have a wide range of important helper and regulatory functions in the immune system. Several studies have specifically suggested that circulating effector CD4+ T cells may play a direct role in control of HIV replication through cytolytic activity or autocrine β-chemokine production. However, it remains unclear whether effector CD4+ T cells expressing cytolytic molecules and β-chemokines are present within lymph nodes (LNs), a major site of HIV replication. Here, we report that expression of β-chemokines and cytolytic molecules are enriched within a CD4+ T cell population with high levels of the T-box transcription factors T-bet and eomesodermin (Eomes). This effector population is predominately found in peripheral blood and is limited in LNs regardless of HIV infection or treatment status. As a result, CD4+ T cells generally lack effector functions in LNs, including cytolytic capacity and IFNγ and β-chemokine expression, even in HIV elite controllers and during acute/early HIV infection. While we do find the presence of degranulating CD4+ T cells in LNs, these cells do not bear functional or transcriptional effector T cell properties and are inherently poor to form stable immunological synapses compared to their peripheral blood counterparts. We demonstrate that CD4+ T cell cytolytic function, phenotype, and programming in the peripheral blood is dissociated from those characteristics found in lymphoid tissues. Together, these data challenge our current models based on blood and suggest spatially and temporally dissociated mechanisms of viral control in lymphoid tissues.
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| 7. |
- Jarvis, Erich D., et al.
(författare)
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Whole-genome analyses resolve early branches in the tree of life of modern birds
- 2014
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 346:6215, s. 1320-1331
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To better determine the history of modern birds, we performed a genome-scale phylogenetic analysis of 48 species representing all orders of Neoaves using phylogenomic methods created to handle genome-scale data. We recovered a highly resolved tree that confirms previously controversial sister or close relationships. We identified the first divergence in Neoaves, two groups we named Passerea and Columbea, representing independent lineages of diverse and convergently evolved land and water bird species. Among Passerea, we infer the common ancestor of core landbirds to have been an apex predator and confirm independent gains of vocal learning. Among Columbea, we identify pigeons and flamingoes as belonging to sister clades. Even with whole genomes, some of the earliest branches in Neoaves proved challenging to resolve, which was best explained by massive protein-coding sequence convergence and high levels of incomplete lineage sorting that occurred during a rapid radiation after the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction event about 66 million years ago.
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| 8. |
- Jenkins, Andrew J., et al.
(författare)
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The Ehrenfest method with fully quantum nuclear motion (Qu-Eh) : Application to charge migration in radical cations
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Chemical Physics. - : AIP Publishing. - 0021-9606 .- 1089-7690. ; 149:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An algorithm is described for quantum dynamics where an Ehrenfest potential is combined with fully quantum nuclear motion (Quantum-Ehrenfest, Qu-Eh). The method is related to the single-set variational multi-configuration Gaussian approach (vMCG) but has the advantage that only a single quantum chemistry computation is required at each time step since there is only a single time-dependent potential surface. Also shown is the close relationship to the “exact factorization method.” The quantum Ehrenfest method is compared with vMCG for study of electron dynamics in a modified bismethylene-adamantane cation system. Illustrative examples of electron-nuclear dynamics are presented for a distorted allene system and for HCCI+ where one has a degenerate Π system.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Polyak, Iakov, et al.
(författare)
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Charge migration engineered by localisation : electron-nuclear dynamics in polyenes and glycine
- 2018
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Ingår i: Molecular Physics. - : Taylor & Francis. - 0026-8976 .- 1362-3028. ; 116:19-20, s. 2474-2489
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We demonstrate that charge migration can be ‘engineered’ in arbitrary molecular systems if a single localised orbital – that diabatically follows nuclear displacements – is ionised. Specifically, we describe the use of natural bonding orbitals in Complete Active Space Configuration Interaction (CASCI) calculations to form cationic states with localised charge, providing consistently well-defined initial conditions across a zero point energy vibrational ensemble of molecular geometries. In Ehrenfest dynamics simulations following localised ionisation of -electrons in model polyenes (hexatriene and decapentaene) and -electrons in glycine, oscillatory charge migration can be observed for several femtoseconds before dephasing. Including nuclear motion leads to slower dephasing compared to fixed-geometry electron-only dynamics results. For future work, we discuss the possibility of designing laser pulses that would lead to charge migration that is experimentally observable, based on the proposed diabatic orbital approach.KEYWORDS: Ehrenfest method, coupled electron-nuclear dynamics, charge migration, localised orbital
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