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Sökning: WFRF:(Robertson Gustav Ph.D. student 1986 )

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  • Robertson, Gustav, Ph.D. student, 1986-, et al. (författare)
  • Model inadequacy in fuel performance code calibration : Derivative-based parameter uncertainty inflation
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Annals of Nuclear Energy. - : Elsevier. - 0306-4549 .- 1873-2100. ; 208
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Fuel performance codes are used to forecast fuel behavior and ensure safe operation. These analyses must typically include prediction uncertainties, and fuel performance models need calibration. Consequently, code calibration must derive the best estimates and corresponding uncertainties of model parameters for subsequent propagation.Bayesian calibration is popular for generating the probability distribution of model parameters. However, model inadequacy disrupts these techniques, typically resulting in underestimated uncertainties. Earlier research showcased the incorporation of model inadequacy by model parameter inflation. The method demands cheap code predictions and derivatives, which required further research to develop differentiated Gaussian process surrogates.This work combines those techniques into a complete methodology. We demonstrate it by calibrating Transuranus against fission gas release and cladding oxidation data. The result is model parameter uncertainties that primarily explain the discrepancies between the predictions and corresponding measurements, except when the output behaves highly non-linearly.
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