| 1. |
- Karlsson, Alexander
(författare)
-
Evaluating credal set theory as a belief framework in high-level information fusion for automated decision-making
- 2010
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- High-level information fusion is a research field in which methods for achieving an overall understanding of the current situation in an environment of interest are studied. The ultimate goal of these methods is to provide effective decision-support for human or automated decision-making. One of the main proposed ways of achieving this is to reduce the uncertainty, coupled with the decision, by utilizing multiple sources of information. Handling uncertainty in high-level information fusion is performed through a belief framework, and one of the most commonly used such frameworks is based on Bayesian theory. However, Bayesian theory has often been criticized for utilizing a representation of belief and evidence that does not sufficiently express some types of uncertainty. For this reason, a generalization of Bayesian theory has been proposed, denoted as credal set theory, which allows one to represent belief and evidence imprecisely. In this thesis, we explore whether credal set theory yields measurable advantages, compared to Bayesian theory, when used as a belief framework in high-level information fusion for automated decision-making, i.e., when decisions are made by some pre-determined algorithm. We characterize the Bayesian and credal operators for belief updating and evidence combination and perform three experiments where the Bayesian and credal frameworks are evaluated with respect to automated decision-making. The decision performance of the frameworks are measured by enforcing a single decision, and allowing a set of decisions, based on the frameworks’ belief and evidence structures. We construct anomaly detectors based on the frameworks and evaluate these detectors with respect to maritime surveillance. The main conclusion of the thesis is that although the credal framework uses considerably more expressive structures to represent belief and evidence, compared to the Bayesian framework, the performance of the credal framework can be significantly worse, on average, than that of the Bayesian framework, irrespective of the amount of imprecision.
|
|
| 2. |
- Suzic, Robert, 1974-
(författare)
-
Stochastic Multi-Agent Plan Recognition, Knowledge Representation and Simulations for Efficient Decision Making
- 2006
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Advances in information technology produce large sets of data for decision makers. In both military and civilian efforts to achieve decision superiority, decision makers have to act agilely with proper, adequate and relevant information available. Information fusion is a process aimed to support decision makers’ situation awareness. This involves a process of combining data and information from disparate sources with prior information or knowledge to obtain an improved state estimate about an agent or other relevant phenomena. The important issue in decision making is not only assessing the current situation but also envisioning how a situation may evolve. In this work we focus on the prediction part of decision making called predictive situation awareness. We introduce new methodology where simulations and plan recognition are tools for achieving improved predictive situation awareness. Plan recognition is the term given to the process of inferring an agent’s intentions from a set of actions and is intended to support decision making. Beside its main task that is to support decision makers’ predictive situation awareness, plan recognition could also be used for coordination of actions and for developing computer-game agents that possess cognitive ability to recognize other agents’ behaviour. Successful plan recognition is heavily dependent on the data that is supplied. Therefore we introduce a bridge between plan recognition and sensor management where results of our plan recognition are reused to the control of, to give focus of attention to, the sensors that are expected to acquire the most important/relevant information. Our methodologies include knowledge representation, embedded stochastic simulations, microeconomics, imprecise knowledge and statistical inference issues.
|
|
