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Overview of the JET results
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 0029-5515 .- 1741-4326. ; 55:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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- Beale, M. A., et al.
(författare)
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Global phylogeny of Treponema pallidum lineages reveals recent expansion and spread of contemporary syphilis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Microbiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2058-5276. ; 6:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Syphilis, which is caused by the sexually transmitted bacterium Treponema pallidum subsp. pallidum, has an estimated 6.3 million cases worldwide per annum. In the past ten years, the incidence of syphilis has increased by more than 150% in some high-income countries, but the evolution and epidemiology of the epidemic are poorly understood. To characterize the global population structure of T. pallidum, we assembled a geographically and temporally diverse collection of 726 genomes from 626 clinical and 100 laboratory samples collected in 23 countries. We applied phylogenetic analyses and clustering, and found that the global syphilis population comprises just two deeply branching lineages, Nichols and SS14. Both lineages are currently circulating in 12 of the 23 countries sampled. We subdivided T. p.pallidum into 17 distinct sublineages to provide further phylodynamic resolution. Importantly, two Nichols sublineages have expanded clonally across 9 countries contemporaneously with SS14. Moreover, pairwise genome analyses revealed examples of isolates collected within the last 20 years from 14 different countries that had genetically identical core genomes, which might indicate frequent exchange through international transmission. It is striking that most samples collected before 1983 are phylogenetically distinct from more recently isolated sublineages. Using Bayesian temporal analysis, we detected a population bottleneck occurring during the late 1990s, followed by rapid population expansion in the 2000s that was driven by the dominant T. pallidum sublineages circulating today. This expansion may be linked to changing epidemiology, immune evasion or fitness under antimicrobial selection pressure, since many of the contemporary syphilis lineages we have characterized are resistant to macrolides. Global syphilis prevalence has been increasing. Sequencing and analysis of a global collection of 726 Treponema pallidum samples reveal globally circulating lineages linked to a rapid expansion occurring since the end of the twentieth century.
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- Kang, E. Y., et al.
(författare)
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Refined cut-off for TP53 immunohistochemistry improves prediction of TP53 mutation status in ovarian mucinous tumors: implications for outcome analyses
- 2021
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Ingår i: Modern Pathology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0893-3952. ; 34:1, s. 194-206
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- TP53 mutations are implicated in the progression of mucinous borderline tumors (MBOT) to mucinous ovarian carcinomas (MOC). Optimized immunohistochemistry (INC) for TP53 has been established as a proxy for the TP53 mutation status in other ovarian tumor types. We aimed to confirm the ability of TP53 IHC to predict TP53 mutation status in ovarian mucinous tumors and to evaluate the association of TP53 mutation status with survival among patients with MBOT and MOC. Tumor tissue from an initial cohort of 113 women with MBOT/MOC was stained with optimized IHC for TP53 using tissue microarrays (75.2%) or full sections (24.8%) and interpreted using established criteria as normal or abnormal (overexpression, complete absence, or cytoplasmic). Cases were considered concordant if abnormal IHC staining predicted deleterious TP53 mutations. Discordant tissue microarray cases were re-evaluated on full sections and interpretational criteria were refined. The initial cohort was expanded to a total of 165 MBOT and 424 MOC for the examination of the association of survival with TP53 mutation status, assessed either by TP53 IHC and/or sequencing. Initially, 82/113 (72.6%) cases were concordant using the established criteria. Refined criteria for overexpression to account for intratumoral heterogeneity and terminal differentiation improved concordance to 93.8% (106/113). In the expanded cohort, 19.4% (32/165) of MBOT showed evidence for TP53 mutation and this was associated with a higher risk of recurrence, disease-specific death, and all-cause mortality (overall survival: HR = 4.6, 95% CI 1.5-14.3, p = 0.0087). Within MOC, 61.1% (259/424) harbored a TP53 mutation, but this was not associated with survival (overall survival, p = 0.77). TP53 IHC is an accurate proxy for TP53 mutation status with refined interpretation criteria accounting for intratumoral heterogeneity and terminal differentiation in ovarian mucinous tumors. TP53 mutation status is an important biomarker to identify MBOT with a higher risk of mortality.
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