| 1. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 2. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Smartt, S. J., et al.
(författare)
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A kilonova as the electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational-wave source
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 551:7678, s. 75-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Gravitational waves were discovered with the detection of binary black-hole mergers(1) and they should also be detectable from lower-mass neutron-star mergers. These are predicted to eject material rich in heavy radioactive isotopes that can power an electromagnetic signal. This signal is luminous at optical and infrared wavelengths and is called a kilonova(2-5). The gravitational-wave source GW170817 arose from a binary neutron-star merger in the nearby Universe with a relatively well confined sky position and distance estimate(6). Here we report observations and physical modelling of a rapidly fading electromagnetic transient in the galaxy NGC 4993, which is spatially coincident with GW170817 and with a weak, short.-ray burst(7,8). The transient has physical parameters that broadly match the theoretical predictions of blue kilonovae from neutron-star mergers. The emitted electromagnetic radiation can be explained with an ejected mass of 0.04 +/- 0.01 solar masses, with an opacity of less than 0.5 square centimetres per gram, at a velocity of 0.2 +/- 0.1 times light speed. The power source is constrained to have a power-law slope of -1.2 +/- 0.3, consistent with radioactive powering from r-process nuclides. (The r-process is a series of neutron capture reactions that synthesise many of the elements heavier than iron.) We identify line features in the spectra that are consistent with light r-process elements (atomic masses of 90-140). As it fades, the transient rapidly becomes red, and a higher-opacity, lanthanide-rich ejecta component may contribute to the emission. This indicates that neutron-star mergers produce gravitational waves and radioactively powered kilonovae, and are a nucleosynthetic source of the r-process elements.
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| 4. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2021
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 20:10, s. 795-820
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12.2 million (95% UI 11.0-13.6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93.2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6.55 million (6.00-7.02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11.6% [10.8-12.2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5.7% [5.1-6.2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70.0% (67.0-73.0), prevalent strokes increased by 85.0% (83.0-88.0), deaths from stroke increased by 43.0% (31.0-55.0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32.0% (22.0-42.0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17.0% (15.0-18.0), mortality decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0), prevalence decreased by 6.0% (5.0-7.0), and DALYs decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22.0% (21.0-24.0) and incidence rates increased by 15.0% (12.0-18.0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3.6 (3.5-3.8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3.7 (3.5-3.9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62.4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7.63 million [6.57-8.96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27.9% (3.41 million [2.97-3.91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9.7% (1.18 million [1.01-1.39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79.6 million [67.7-90.8] DALYs or 55.5% [48.2-62.0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34.9 million [22.3-48.6] DALYs or 24.3% [15.7-33.2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28.9 million [19.8-41.5] DALYs or 20.2% [13.8-29.1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28.7 million [23.4-33.4] DALYs or 20.1% [16.6-23.0]), and smoking (25.3 million [22.6-28.2] DALYs or 17.6% [16.4-19.0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Sepanlou, Sadaf G., et al.
(författare)
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The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2020
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Ingår i: The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - 2468-1253. ; 5:3, s. 245-266
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories. Methods We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries. Findings In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1.32 million (95% UI 1.27-1.45) deaths (440000 [416 000-518 000; 33.3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000-967 000; 66.7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000-948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2.4% (2.3-2.6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1.9% (1.8-2.0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21.0 (19.2-22.3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16.5 (15.8-18-1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32.2 [25.8-38.6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10.1 [9.8-10-5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3.7 [3.3-4.0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103.3 [64.4-133.4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10.6 million (10.3-10.9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107-119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33.2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54.8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases snore than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI. Interpretation Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH.
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| 7. |
- Yan, Lin, et al.
(författare)
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Hydrogen-poor Superluminous Supernovae with Late-time H alpha Emission : Three Events From the Intermediate Palomar Transient Factory
- 2017
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 848:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present observations of two new hydrogen-poor superluminous supernovae (SLSN-I), iPTF15esb and iPTF16bad, showing late-time H alpha emission with line luminosities of (1-3) x 10(41) erg s(-1) and velocity widths of (4000-6000) km s(-1). Including the previously published iPTF13ehe, this makes up a total of three such events to date. iPTF13ehe is one of the most luminous and the slowest evolving SLSNe-I, whereas the other two are less luminous and fast decliners. We interpret this as a result of the ejecta running into a neutral H-shell located at a radius of similar to 10(16) cm. This implies that violent mass loss must have occurred several decades before the supernova explosion. Such a short time interval suggests that eruptive mass loss could be common shortly before core collapse, and more importantly helium is unlikely to be completely stripped off the progenitor and could be present in the ejecta. It is a mystery why helium features are not detected, even though nonthermal energy sources, capable of ionizing He, may exist as suggested by the O II absorption series in the early-time spectra. Our late-time spectra (+240 days) appear to have intrinsically lower [O I] 6300 angstrom luminosities than that of SN2015bn and SN2007bi, which is possibly an indication of less oxygen (<10 M-circle dot). The blueshifted H alpha emission relative to the hosts for all three events may be in tension with the binary model proposed for iPTF13ehe. Finally, iPTF15esb has a peculiar light curve (LC) with three peaks separated from one another by similar to 22 days. The LC undulation is stronger in bluer bands. One possible explanation is ejecta-circumstellar medium interaction.
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| 8. |
- Yang, Chieh-Jen, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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The importance of few-nucleon forces in chiral effective field theory
- 2023
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal A. - 1434-601X .- 1434-6001. ; 59:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We study the importance of few-nucleon forces in chiral effective field theory for describing many-nucleon systems. A combinatorial argument suggests that three-nucleon forces-which are conventionally regarded as next-to-next-to-leading order-should accompany the two-nucleon force already at leading order (LO) starting with mass number A≃ 10–20. We find that this promotion enables the first realistic description of the 16 O ground state based on a renormalization-group-invariant LO interaction. We also performed coupled-cluster calculations of the equation of state for symmetric nuclear matter and our results indicate that LO four-nucleon forces could play a crucial role for describing heavy-mass nuclei. The enhancement mechanism we found is very general and could be important also in other many-body problems.
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| 9. |
- Hung, T., et al.
(författare)
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Sifting for Sapphires : Systematic Selection of Tidal Disruption Events in iPTF
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 238:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present results from a systematic selection of tidal disruption events (TDEs) in a wide-area (4800 deg(2)), g+ R band, Intermediate Palomar Transient Factory experiment. Our selection targets typical optically selected TDEs: bright (> 60% flux increase) and blue transients residing in the centers of red galaxies. Using photometric selection criteria to down-select from a total of 493 nuclear transients to a sample of 26 sources, we then use follow-up UV imaging with the Neil Gehrels Swift Telescope, ground-based optical spectroscopy, and light curve fitting to classify them as 14 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), 9 highly variable active galactic nuclei (AGNs), 2 confirmed TDEs, and 1 potential core-collapse supernova. We find it possible to filter AGNs by employing a more stringent transient color cut (g - r < -0.2 mag); further, UV imaging is the best discriminator for filtering SNe, since SNe Ia can appear as blue, optically, as TDEs in their early phases. However, when UV-optical color is unavailable, higher-precision astrometry can also effectively reduce SNe contamination in the optical. Our most stringent optical photometric selection criteria yields a 4.5: 1 contamination rate, allowing for a manageable number of TDE candidates for complete spectroscopic follow-up and real-time classification in the Zwicky Transient Facility era. We measure a TDE per galaxy rate of 1.7(-1.3)(+2.9) 10(-4) gal yr(-1) (90% CL in Poisson statistics). This does not account for TDEs outside our selection criteria, and thus may not reflect the total TDE population, which is yet to be fully mapped.
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| 10. |
- Johnson, Calvin W., et al.
(författare)
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White paper: From bound states to the continuum
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Physics G: Nuclear and Particle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 0954-3899 .- 1361-6471. ; 47:12
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- This white paper reports on the discussions of the 2018 Facility for Rare Isotope Beams Theory Alliance (FRIB-TA) topical program ‘From bound states to the continuum: Connecting bound state calculations with scattering and reaction theory’. One of the biggest and most important frontiers in nuclear theory today is to construct better and stronger bridges between bound state calculations and calculations in the continuum, especially scattering and reaction theory, as well as teasing out the influence of the continuum on states near threshold. This is particularly challenging as many-body structure calculations typically use a bound state basis, while reaction calculations more commonly utilize few-body continuum approaches. The many-body bound state and few-body continuum methods use different language and emphasize different properties. To build better foundations for these bridges, we present an overview of several bound state and continuum methods and, where possible, point to current and possible future connections.
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