| 1. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Álvaro, J. Javier, et al.
(författare)
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Global Cambrian trilobite palaeobiogeography assessed using parsimony analysis of endemicity
- 2013
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Ingår i: Early Palaeozoic Biogeography and Palaeogeography. - 0435-4052. - 9781862393738 ; Memoir 38:38, s. 273-296
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Palaeobiogeographical data on Cambrian trilobites obtained during the twentieth century are combined in this paper to evaluate palaeoceanographic links through c. 30 myr, once these arthropods biomineralized. Worldwide major tectonostratigraphic units are characterized at series intervals of Cambrian time and datasets of trilobite genera (629 for Cambrian Series 2, 965 for Cambrian Series 3, and 866 for the Furongian Series) are analysed using parsimony analysis of endemicity. Special attention is given to the biogeographical observations made in microcontinents and exotic terranes. The same is done for platform-basinal transects of well-known continental margins. The parsimony analysis of endemicity analysis resulted in distinct palaeogeographical area groupings among the tectonostratigraphic units. With these groupings, several palaeobiogeographical units are distinguished, which do not necessarily fit the previously proposed biogeographical realms and provinces. Their development and spatial distributions are broadly controlled by Cambrian palaeoclimates, palaeogeographical conditions (e.g. carbonate productivity and anoxic conditions) and ocean current circulation.
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| 6. |
- Dies Alvarez, Maria Eugenia, et al.
(författare)
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Paradoxides brachyrhachis Linnarsson, 1883 versus Paradoxides mediterraneus Pompeckj, 1901: a problematic determination
- 2010
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Ingår i: GFF. - : Informa UK Limited. - 2000-0863 .- 1103-5897. ; 132:2, s. 95-104
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A revision of paradoxidid trilobites reveals that previous identifications of specimens from Sardinia and Spain as the Nordic trilobite species Paradoxides brachyrhachis Linnarsson, 1883, are mistaken. The southern species, occurring also in France, is here referred to Eccaparadoxides mediterraneus (Pompeckj, 1901). Main differences are seen in the preocular field, pleural furrow and pygidium. The species P. brachyrhachis is referred with question to the genus Mawddachites Fletcher 2007.
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| 7. |
- Ebbestad, Jan Ove R., et al.
(författare)
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A paradoxidid moult ensemble from the Cambrian of Sweden
- 2013
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Ingår i: GFF. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1103-5897 .- 2000-0863. ; 135:1, s. 18-29
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A mass aggregation of 148 paradoxidid trilobites and associated specimens of the agnostoid Pentagnostus praecurrens is preserved on a surface of a split orsten lens from the Middle Cambrian Series 3 Acadoparadoxides pinus-P. praecurrens Zone in Jamtland, Sweden. Most specimens are complete or nearly complete, lying parallel to the sediment surface and seem unaffected by currents or sorting. The association is interpreted as a moult ensemble. Paradoxidid specimens are represented by two taxa, identified as paradoxidid sp. 1 (n=28 specimens) and Eccaparadoxides sp. 2 (n=45 specimens). The species are preserved both dorsum up and dorsum down, in about equal number, which may reflect a natural tendency to moult in either posture. They probably moulted by opening the cephalic sutures along the wide rostrum. The dorsal sutures are invariably open and the librigenae are very often displaced, commonly backwards in relation to the cranidium, but not symmetrically in relation to the axial shield. The glabella of the paradoxidids is often crushed, so that sometimes the underlying hypostome is outlined. Very few examples show the joint between the cranidium and the trunk being broken. Facies interpretation suggests deposition below storm wave base. Rapid burial, possibly by blanketing from hypopycnal flows followed by an extended period of slow sediment input (Type 1 facies of Brett et al. 2012) may explain the unusual preservation. The animals may have lived in an ex-aerobic environment, but evidence to support this is at the moment insubstantial.
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| 8. |
- Rushton, Adrian A.W, et al.
(författare)
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Paradoxidid trilobites from a mid-Cambrian (Series 3, stage 5) limestone concretion from Jämtland, central Sweden
- 2016
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Ingår i: Bulletin of Geosciences. - : Czech Geological Survey. - 1214-1119 .- 1802-8225. ; 91:3, s. 515-552
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper describes the morphology and discusses the taxonomy of the paradoxidid trilobites present in the moult ensemble described by Ebbestad et al. (2013) from a huge limestone concretion of the Alum Shale Formation collected at Östnår, Jämtland. Two species, both represented by numerous but small complete holaspid specimens are described as new: Eccaparadoxides? thorslundi sp. nov. is distinctive, but its generic position is considered doubtful; Hydrocephalus spinulosus is similar to H. vikensis Rushton & Weidner, 2007 (also present as a rarity in the moult ensemble) and is partly distinguished from it by characters of the thorax. Also illustrated are a few specimens that have been collected at various localities between Hackås and Brunflo. They appear to represent individuals of some of the species in the moult ensemble and are about twice the size of their type specimens.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Weidner, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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A paradoxidid–agnostoid fauna from the mid-Cambrian (Stage 5) of the Caledonian Lower Allochthon on Tåsjöberget, Ångermanland, Sweden
- 2014
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Ingår i: GFF. - : Taylor & Francis. - 1103-5897 .- 2000-0863. ; 136:4, s. 513-530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe faunas, formerly very little known, from allochthonous mid-Cambrian strata in the Fjällbränna Formation (Tåsjön Group) in Ångermanland that are equivalent to the “Paradoxides oelandicus Beds” of the autochthon. Paradoxidid trilobites are by far the commonest forms but are represented only by dissociated sclerites; 7–10 taxa appear to be present, but most of them are so incomplete that they cannot be identified with certainty. They are accompanied by rare agnostoids of two taxa, Pentagnostus praecurrens and Acadagnostus acadicus. The assemblages lack eodiscoid or other polymerid trilobites, molluscs and brachiopods, and in this respect contrast with shallower-water shelf faunas in the “Oelandicus Beds” of the Swedish autochthon, but bear comparison with shelf-edge or slope faunas from Novaya Zemlya (Arctic Russia), the Moesian Platform (Romania) and South Carolina (USA).
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