| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 2. |
- Bott, Lukas Thomas, et al.
(author)
-
Coulomb dissociation of O-16 into He-4 and C-12
- 2023
-
In: NUCLEAR PHYSICS IN ASTROPHYSICS - X, NPA-X 2022. - : EDP Sciences. - 2100-014X. ; 279
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We measured the Coulomb dissociation of O-16 into He-4 and C-12 within the FAIR Phase-0 program at GSI Helmholtzzentrum fur Schwerionenforschung Darmstadt, Germany. From this we will extract the photon dissociation cross section O-16(alpha,gamma)C-12, which is the time reversed reaction to C-12(alpha,gamma)O-16. With this indirect method, we aim to improve on the accuracy of the experimental data at lower energies than measured so far. The expected low cross section for the Coulomb dissociation reaction and close magnetic rigidity of beam and fragments demand a high precision measurement. Hence, new detector systems were built and radical changes to the (RB)-B-3 setup were necessary to cope with the high-intensity O-16 beam. All tracking detectors were designed to let the unreacted O-16 ions pass, while detecting the C-12 and He-4.
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
| 4. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
|
|
| 5. |
-
- 2018
-
In: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 58:9
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)
|
|
| 6. |
- Braungardt, Sibylle, et al.
(author)
-
Renewable heating and cooling pathways – Towards full decarbonisation by 2050 – Final report
- 2023
-
Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- With the adoption of the EU Climate Law in 2021, the EU has set itself a binding target to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent compared to 1990 levels by 2030. To support the increased ambition, the EU Commission adopted proposals for revising the key directives and regulations addressing energy efficiency, renewable energies and greenhouse gas emissions in the Fit for 55 package.The heating and cooling (H&C) sector plays a key role for reaching the EU energy and climate targets. H&C accounts for about 50 percent of the final energy consumption in the EU, and the sector is largely based on fossil fuels. In 2021, the share of renewable energies in H&C reached 23%. The decarbonisation of heating and cooling is addressed across several directives and regulations at EU level.The aim of this study is to support the analytical basis for the development and implementation of policies to ensure a seamless pathway to the full decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector by 2050 in buildings and industry.
|
|
| 7. |
- Fallahnejad, Mostafa, et al.
(author)
-
District heating potential in the EU-27 : Evaluating the impacts of heat demand reduction and market share growth
- 2024
-
In: Applied Energy. - Oxford : Elsevier. - 0306-2619 .- 1872-9118. ; 353:Part B
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the gradual reduction in heat demand and the evolving expansion of district heating (DH) grids for assessing the DH potential in EU member states (MS). It introduces new methodological elements for modeling the impact of connection rates below 100% on heat distribution costs in both dense and sparse areas. The projected heat demand in 2050 is derived from a decarbonization scenario published by the EU, which would lead to a reduction in demand from 3128 TWh in 2020 to 1709 TWh by 2050. The proposed approach yields information on economic DH areas, DH potential, and average heat distribution costs. The results confirm the need to expand DH grids to maintain supply levels in view of decreasing heat demand. The proportion of DH potential from the total demand in the EU-27 rises from 15% in 2020 to 31% in 2050. The analysis of DH areas shows that 39% of the DH potential is in areas with heat distribution costs above 35 EUR/MWh, but most MS have average heat distribution costs between 28 and 32 EUR/MWh. The study reveals that over 40% of the EU's heat demand is in regions with high potential for implementing DH. © 2023 The Author(s)
|
|
| 8. |
- Lichtenwöhrer, Peter, et al.
(author)
-
Report on decarbonisation design-approaches based on urban typologies : Deliverable D2.5
- 2022
-
Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This report identifies different typology-based approaches and methods for decarbonising the energy sector of cities. Respectively, typologies were evaluated, and design approaches were developed. In a first step, already existing typologies were evaluated, including a study by the Technical University of Darmstadt and examples from the City of Vienna. In a next step, conceivable structuring criteria and decarbonisation approaches from existing work within the DCP project were identified and summarised. These include structuring criteria such as heat demand density, renewable energy sources or types of refurbishment activities. On this basis, a new typology was developed. Five highly weighted criteria could be derived from the results of the expert survey, including structural energy efficiency, coverage of district heating, potential for renewable sources, potential for waste heat and heat demand density. These criteria formed the basis for the development of the novel typology. The first typology represents areas with high compatibility with highly weighted criteria, the third typology represents areas with comparably low compatibility, while the second typology is associated in between. Based on the developed typology, six design approaches were presented in this report. One short-term and one long-term approach for each typology include recommendations as well as concrete measures for strategic decision-making.
|
|
| 9. |
- Meunier, Simon, et al.
(author)
-
Cost and capacity analysis for representative EU energy grids depending on decarbonisation scenarios : D4.4
- 2021
-
Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This work studies the transformation of energy grids of the European Union (EU) in the frame of the energy transition. Three energy grid types are considered namely the electricity, thermal and gas grids. Regarding electricity grids, we investigate the required reinforcements of the low-voltage networks (e.g. replacing the distribution transformer by one of higher nominal power, replacing cables by cables of larger cross-section) in order to integrate residential low-carbon technologies such as heat pumps, photovoltaic systems and electric vehicles. To do so, we develop a methodology for the quantification of EU low-voltage grid reinforcement costs following residential low-carbon technologies integration. This methodology uses urbanisation data to determine the share of dwellings in rural and urban areas in EU28 countries (EU27 + United Kingdom). It is also based on a model that quantifies the grid reinforcement cost as a function of the low-carbon technologies integration scenario for representative rural and urban grids. This model is composed of three sub-models, namely the dwelling, grid and economic models. We also collected data from 24 open access grids (i.e. grids of which the specifications are freely accessible online) and 23 scientific articles and reports to determine the parameter values of the grid and economic models for EU28 countries. Finally, we provide example applications that illustrate the methodology by computing the grid reinforcement costs from heat pumps and photovoltaic systems integration in Belgium and Italy. Results indicate that, in the largest majority of cases, both for Belgian and Italian grids, the reinforcement cost per dwelling remains below 350 € per dwelling (total cost for the whole lifespan of 33 years). The only case where more significant reinforcement costs occurred (> 350 €/dwelling and up to 1150 €/dwelling) is for the Belgian rural grid with heat pump integration rates larger than 40%. When it comes to thermal grids, we investigate the deployment of district heating, a heat supply technology that by its fundamental idea incorporates energy efficiency and thus can trigger important greenhouse gas emissions reduction. For this purpose, we proposed an approach to map the cost of thermal grids deployment per heat demand unit in the EU. This approach is based on the concept of representative thermal grids which corresponds to a principal equation that defines the distribution capital costs as the ratio of empirically derived specific investments costs and the linear heat density. In the sEEnergies project, this concept is expanded to comprise better cost models based on actual district heating network layouts at the spatial resolution of 1 hectare. While in the Heat Roadmap Europe project, the variables were generated only for the 14 EU Member States with largest annual volumes of building heat demands, the present approach covers all EU27 Member States plus United Kingdom. In this deliverable, we focus on the current year, while the deliverable 4.5 focuses on the future years. Regarding gas grids, we present the key technical and economic characteristics of the existing gas grids and storages in the EU28 countries. We focus not only on infrastructure for natural gas but also for biogas, biomethane, syngas and hydrogen, which could play an important role in the decrease of greenhouse gas emissions. This techno-economic review provides important information to assess the cost of retrofitting and developing gas grids depending on the decarbonisation scenarios.
|
|
| 10. |
- Möller, Bernd, et al.
(author)
-
An empirical high-resolution geospatial model of future population distribution for assessing heat demands
- 2021
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The future population distribution informs decisions on investment in district heating. Across Europe, demographic change has been associated with structural changes of the past. Trends towards urban or rural migration, urban sprawl or the depopulation of city centers will continue. Using gridded population data since 1990, past development is mapped using spatial disaggregation to grid cells by intensity of urban development. An empirical method proposed captures increment of population in each grid cell and relates it to the focal statistics of the cell neighbourhood. A positive population trend in populated cells leads to a future population increase and a spill over into new development areas, while a negative trend leads to lower future population. New areas are modelled based on the principles of proximity and similarity using neighbourhood trends and land cover suitability, adjusted to national and regional population trends. The result is a set of future 1-hectare population grids, which have been used to model the distribution of future heat demands. The distribution of heat demand densities, the zoning of heat supply, and the potential for individual heat pumps have been modelled. Results show that reductions of heat demands and demographic developments leave a window of opportunities to develop heating infrastructures with known technology in the present decade, after which 4th Generation District Heat technology is required to decarbonise the heating sector.
|
|
