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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 3. |
- Jakobsen, J. S., et al.
(författare)
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Temporal ChIP-on-chip reveals Biniou as a universal regulator of the visceral muscle transcriptional network
- 2007
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Ingår i: Genes Dev. - : Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. - 0890-9369. ; 21:19, s. 2448-60
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Smooth muscle plays a prominent role in many fundamental processes and diseases, yet our understanding of the transcriptional network regulating its development is very limited. The FoxF transcription factors are essential for visceral smooth muscle development in diverse species, although their direct regulatory role remains elusive. We present a transcriptional map of Biniou (a FoxF transcription factor) and Bagpipe (an Nkx factor) activity, as a first step to deciphering the developmental program regulating Drosophila visceral muscle development. A time course of chromatin immunoprecipitatation followed by microarray analysis (ChIP-on-chip) experiments and expression profiling of mutant embryos reveal a dynamic map of in vivo bound enhancers and direct target genes. While Biniou is broadly expressed, it regulates enhancers driving temporally and spatially restricted expression. In vivo reporter assays indicate that the timing of Biniou binding is a key trigger for the time span of enhancer activity. Although bagpipe and biniou mutants phenocopy each other, their regulatory potential is quite different. This network architecture was not apparent from genetic studies, and highlights Biniou as a universal regulator in all visceral muscle, regardless of its developmental origin or subsequent function. The regulatory connection of a number of Biniou target genes is conserved in mice, suggesting an ancient wiring of this developmental program.
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| 7. |
- Sandmann, S, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating Variant Calling Tools for Non-Matched Next-Generation Sequencing Data
- 2017
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Ingår i: Scientific reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 7, s. 43169-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Valid variant calling results are crucial for the use of next-generation sequencing in clinical routine. However, there are numerous variant calling tools that usually differ in algorithms, filtering strategies, recommendations and thus, also in the output. We evaluated eight open-source tools regarding their ability to call single nucleotide variants and short indels with allelic frequencies as low as 1% in non-matched next-generation sequencing data: GATK HaplotypeCaller, Platypus, VarScan, LoFreq, FreeBayes, SNVer, SAMtools and VarDict. We analysed two real datasets from patients with myelodysplastic syndrome, covering 54 Illumina HiSeq samples and 111 Illumina NextSeq samples. Mutations were validated by re-sequencing on the same platform, on a different platform and expert based review. In addition we considered two simulated datasets with varying coverage and error profiles, covering 50 samples each. In all cases an identical target region consisting of 19 genes (42,322 bp) was analysed. Altogether, no tool succeeded in calling all mutations. High sensitivity was always accompanied by low precision. Influence of varying coverages- and background noise on variant calling was generally low. Taking everything into account, VarDict performed best. However, our results indicate that there is a need to improve reproducibility of the results in the context of multithreading.
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| 9. |
- Sandmann, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Patients With Proneural Glioblastoma May Derive Overall Survival Benefit From the Addition of Bevacizumab to First-Line Radiotherapy and Temozolomide : Retrospective Analysis of the AVAglio Trial
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - : American Society of Clinical Oncology. - 0732-183X .- 1527-7755. ; 33:25, s. 2735-2744
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: The AVAglio (Avastin in Glioblastoma) and RTOG-0825 randomized, placebo-controlled phase III trials in newly diagnosed glioblastoma reported prolonged progression-free survival (PFS), but not overall survival (OS), with the addition of bevacizumab to radiotherapy plus temozolomide. To establish whether certain patient subgroups derived an OS benefit from the addition of bevacizumab to first-line standard-of-care therapy, AVAglio patients were retrospectively evaluated for molecular subtype, and bevacizumab efficacy was assessed for each patient subgroup. Patients and Methods: A total of 349 pretreatment specimens (bevacizumab arm, n = 171; placebo arm, n = 178) from AVAglio patients (total, N = 921) were available for biomarker analysis. Samples were profiled for gene expression and isocitrate dehydrogenase 1 (IDH1) mutation status and classified into previously identified molecular subtypes. PFS and OS were assessed within each subtype. Results: A multivariable analysis accounting for prognostic covariates revealed that bevacizumab conferred a significant OS advantage versus placebo for patients with proneural IDH1 wild-type tumors (17.1 v 12.8 months, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.73; P = .002). This analysis also revealed an interaction between the proneural subtype biomarker and treatment arm (P = .023). The group of patients with mesenchymal and proneural tumors derived a PFS benefit from bevacizumab compared with placebo; however, this translated to an OS benefit in the proneural subset only. Conclusion: Retrospective analysis of AVAglio data suggests that patients with IDH1 wild-type proneural glioblastoma may derive an OS benefit from first-line bevacizumab treatment. The predictive value of the proneural subtype observed in AVAglio should be validated in an independent data set.
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| 10. |
- Urban, S, et al.
(författare)
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Volumetric and dielectric studies on 4-n-pentyl-4 '-cyanobiphenyl (5CB) under high pressure
- 1998
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Ingår i: POLISH JOURNAL OF CHEMISTRY. - : POLISH CHEMICAL SOCIETY. - 0137-5083. ; 72:2, s. 241-250
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The results of measurements of the specific volume V-m versus temperature T and pressure p are presented together with the new results of high pressure dielectric studies of 4-n-pentyl-4'-cyanobiphenyl (5CB) in the nematic and isotropic phase. The knowled
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