| 1. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating Multiple Research Methods to Unravel the Complexity of Human-Water Systems
- 2021
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Ingår i: AGU Advances. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2576-604X. ; 2:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Predicting floods and droughts is essential to inform the development of policy in water management, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Yet, hydrological predictions are highly uncertain, while the frequency, severity and spatial distribution of extreme events are further complicated by the increasing impact of human activities on the water cycle. In this commentary, we argue that four main aspects characterizing the complexity of human-water systems should be explicitly addressed: feedbacks, scales, tradeoffs and inequalities. We propose the integration of multiple research methods as a way to cope with complexity and develop policy-relevant science.Plain Language SummarySeveral governments today claim to be following the science in addressing crises caused by the occurrence of extreme events, such as floods and droughts, or the emergence of global threats, such as climate change and COVID-19. In this commentary, we show that there are no universal answers to apparently simple questions such as: Do levees reduce flood risk? Do reservoirs alleviate droughts? We argue that the best science we have consists of a plurality of legitimate interpretations and a range of foresights, which can be enriched by integrating multiple disciplines and research methods.
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| 2. |
- Jung, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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A comparison of very old patients admitted to intensive care unit after acute versus elective surgery or intervention
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of critical care. - : W B SAUNDERS CO-ELSEVIER INC. - 0883-9441 .- 1557-8615. ; 52, s. 141-148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: We aimed to evaluate differences in outcome between patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) after elective versus acute surgery in a multinational cohort of very old patients (80 years; VIP). Predictors of mortality, with special emphasis on frailty, were assessed.Methods: In total, 5063 VIPs were induded in this analysis, 922 were admitted after elective surgery or intervention, 4141 acutely, with 402 after acute surgery. Differences were calculated using Mann-Whitney-U test and Wilcoxon test. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression were used to assess associations with mortality.Results: Compared patients admitted after acute surgery, patients admitted after elective surgery suffered less often from frailty as defined as CFS (28% vs 46%; p < 0.001), evidenced lower SOFA scores (4 +/- 5 vs 7 +/- 7; p < 0.001). Presence of frailty (CFS >4) was associated with significantly increased mortality both in elective surgery patients (7% vs 12%; p = 0.01), in acute surgery (7% vs 12%; p = 0.02).Conclusions: VIPs admitted to ICU after elective surgery evidenced favorable outcome over patients after acute surgery even after correction for relevant confounders. Frailty might be used to guide clinicians in risk stratification in both patients admitted after elective and acute surgery.
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| 3. |
- Kreibich, Heidi, et al.
(författare)
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Panta Rhei benchmark dataset : Socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts
- 2023
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 15:5, s. 2009-2023
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, 10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).
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| 4. |
- Kreibich, Heidi, et al.
(författare)
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The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 608:7921, s. 80-86
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally, yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.
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| 5. |
- Rusca, Maria, et al.
(författare)
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Speculative Political Ecologies : (re)imagining urban futures of climate extremes
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Political Ecology. - : University of Arizona Press. - 1073-0451. ; 30:1, s. 581-608
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- What role can a speculative political ecology play in (re)imaging urban futures of climate extremes? In recent years, narratives of dystopian futures of climate extremes have proliferated in geosciences, and across the media and creative arts. These anxiety-fueled narratives often generate a sense of resignation and unavoidability, which contributes to foreclosing the possibility of radically different political projects. In this article, we argue that these narratives conceal the coproduction of nature and society and treat nature as the problem, thereby locking futures into dystopic configurations. Political ecology scholarship can contribute to generate a politics of possibility by reconceptualizing the relations that constitute urban futures under climate extremes as socionatural. This, we argue, calls for a more experimental political ecology and new forms of theorizing. To this aim, we develop a speculative political ecological approach grounded on a numerical model that examines the potential of transformative change in the aftermath of extreme flood events in a capitalist city. Analytically, this opens a unique possibility of exploring urban futures beyond current trajectories, and how these alternative futures might transform vulnerability and inequality across urban spaces. From a policy perspective, we lay the foundations for a new generation of models that apprehend the role of power and agency in shaping uneven urban futures of climate extremes.
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| 6. |
- Rusca, Maria, et al.
(författare)
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Unprecedented droughts are expected to exacerbate urban inequalities in Southern Africa
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Nature. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 13:1, s. 98-105
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change-related drought risks are intensifying in many urban areas, making stakes particularly high in contexts of severe vulnerability. Yet, how social power, differential agency and economic visions will shape societal responses to droughts remains poorly understood. Here, we build a social-environmental scenario of the possible impacts of an unprecedented drought in Maputo, which epitomizes a Southern African city with highly uneven development and differential vulnerability across urban areas. To build the scenario, we draw on theoretical insights from critical social sciences and take Cape Town (2015–2017) as a case-in-point of a locally unprecedented drought in Southern Africa. We show that future droughts in Southern Africa will probably polarize urban inequalities, generate localized public health crises and regress progress in water access. Climate policies must address these inequalities and develop equitable water distribution and conservation measures to ensure sustainable and inclusive adaptation to future droughts.
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| 7. |
- Savelli, Elisa, et al.
(författare)
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All dried up: the materiality of drought in Ladismith, South Africa
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental and Planning E: Nature and Space. - : Elsevier. - 2514-8486 .- 2514-8494. ; , s. 1-28
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper conceptualizes droughts as socioecological phenomena coproduced by the recursive engagement of human and non-human transformations. Through an interdisciplinary approach that integrates political ecology, material geographies and hydroclimatology, this work simultaneously apprehends the role of politics and power in reshaping drought, along with the agency of biophysical processes —soil, vegetation, hydrology and microclimate— that co-produce droughts and their spatiotemporal patterning. The drought-stricken Ladismith in Western Cape, South Africa, is the instrumental case study and point of departure of our empirical analysis. To advance a materiality of drought that seriously accounts for the coevolution of biophysical and political transformations, we alter the spatiotemporal and empirical foci of drought analyses thereby retracing Ladismith’s socioecological history since colonial times. In turn, such extended framework exposes the agency of soil, vegetation, hydrology and microclimate and their metabolic exchanges with processes of colonization, apartheid, capitalist and neoliberal transformations of South African economy. We argue that the narrow pursuit of profits and capital accumulation of the few has produced a fundamental disruption between nature and society which contributed to transform Ladismith’s drought into a socioecological crisis. Whilst advancing debates on materiality, we note two fundamental contributions to the study of drought. First, our approach makes hydrological accounts of droughts less politically naive and socially blind. Second, it develops a political ecology of droughts and socioecological crises more attuned to the materiality of drought. We contend that apprehending the materiality of drought and the active role of its non-human processes can further understandings of the workings of power and the production of socioecological injustices.
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| 8. |
- Savelli, Elisa, et al.
(författare)
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Don't blame the rain : Social power and the 2015-2017 drought in Cape Town
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 594
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sociohydrology has advanced understandings of water related phenomena by conceptualizing changes in hydrological flows and risks as the result of the interplay between water and society. However, social power and the heterogeneity of human societies, which are crucial to unravel the feedback mechanisms underlying human-water systems, have not been sufficiently considered. In response, this paper proposes an interdisciplinary approach that draws on political ecology perspectives to combine sociohydrological insights with analyses of social power and of the ways in which different social groups distinctively interact with water systems. We draw on empirical evidence of Cape Town's water insecurity before and during the prolonged drought (2015-2017) that escalated into a severe water crisis, also known as Day Zero. The study integrates times series of reservoir storage and water consumption with 40 interviews and focus group discussions to firstly retrace the historical legacy of Colonial rules, Apartheid and, more recently, neoliberal policies. Within this human-water system, we show how Cape Town's political legacy has encouraged unsustainable levels of water consumption amongst the (white) elite and tolerated chronic water insecurity amongst (black) informal dwellers. This uneven geography of water insecurity is also discernible in the unequal experiences of drought and water resilience trajectories of diverse social groups across Cape Town. We conclude that accounting for social power and inequalities can advance sociohydrology by identifying those mechanisms (within society) that determine what water is secured and what human-water interactions and dynamics will be sustained over time. Furthermore, by engaging with social power, sociohydrology can play a significant role in informing policies that reduce inequalities in water access and unsustainable water use.
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| 9. |
- Savelli, Elisa, et al.
(författare)
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Drought and society : Scientific progress, blind spots, and future prospects
- 2022
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Ingår i: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1757-7780 .- 1757-7799. ; 13:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Human activities have increasingly intensified the severity, frequency, and negative impacts of droughts in several regions across the world. This trend has led to broader scientific conceptualizations of drought risk that account for human actions and their interplays with natural systems. This review focuses on physical and engineering sciences to examine the way and extent to which these disciplines account for social processes in relation to the production and distribution of drought risk. We conclude that this research has significantly progressed in terms of recognizing the role of humans in reshaping drought risk and its socioenvironmental impacts. We note an increasing engagement with and contribution to understanding vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation patterns. Moreover, by advancing (socio)hydrological models, developing numerical indexes, and enhancing data processing, physical and engineering scientists have determined the extent of human influences in the propagation of drought hazard. However, these studies do not fully capture the complexities of anthropogenic transformations. Very often, they portray society as homogeneous, and decision‐making processes as apolitical, thereby concealing the power relations underlying the production of drought and the uneven distribution of its impacts. The resistance in engaging explicitly with politics and social power—despite their major role in producing anthropogenic drought—can be attributed to the strong influence of positivist epistemologies in engineering and physical sciences. We suggest that an active engagement with critical social sciences can further theorizations of drought risk by shedding light on the structural and historical systems of power that engender every socioenvironmental transformation.
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| 10. |
- Savelli, Elisa
(författare)
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Parched Injustice : Unravelling the production and distribution of drought risk in South Africa
- 2022
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Droughts and water shortages constitute some of the most urgent challenges that society must address. Due to anthropogenic pressure and human-induced climate change, future projections expect droughts to escalate and most heavily affect those who are socially, economically and politically disadvantaged. However, the world seems still unprepared to face future droughts, much less to address their implications. As of today, it is still difficult to foresee when droughts are likely to strike, for how long, and in particular, what their impacts will be. One of the reasons for this impasse is that scientists have not yet fully grasped the socioenvironmental complexity of droughts. To account for such complexity, this thesis combines sociohydrological and critical social sciences. This interdisciplinary effort contributes to better understand why droughts occur and manifest themselves the way they do. Specifically, the thesis aims to apprehend the production and distribution of drought risk over time and across space by (a) unravelling the socioenvironmental processes that over time reshape drought hazard along with (b) revealing the way certain socioenvironmental processes redistribute drought vulnerabilities across space. This thesis shows how different temporal and spatial scales expose distinctive socioenvironmental processes which are entangled with the production of drought hazard and vulnerabilities. The city of Cape Town and Ladismith’s agricultural area in South Africa provide the empirical basis for such analyses as they both witnessed extreme droughts which unfolded as water crises experienced unevenly by their respective populations. The thesis finds that rather than society as whole, power dynamics and social inequalities are much more adept at explaining the way humans unsustainably and unevenly reshape water systems, thereby transforming droughts into water crises. All too often, water consumption by privileged social groups exerts unsustainable pressure on the local hydrology, thereby constituting a serious threat for the long-term sustainability of urban or rural water systems. Power imbalances are amongst the driving mechanisms that determine what human-water dynamics will be sustained over time. As a result, to better understand the production and distribution of drought risk it is necessary to focus on the political economic processes that produce such injustices. Whilst doing so, drought scholars should always account for the agency of non-human processes and their entanglements with power dynamics. Ultimately, if as humans we cannot tame the agency of biophysical processes, we have, at minimum, the responsibility to address the political-economic systems and power dynamics that produce unjust and unsustainable socioenvironmental transformations.
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