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- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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- Brunkwall, J., et al.
(författare)
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Endovascular Repair of Acute Uncomplicated Aortic Type B Dissection Promotes Aortic Remodelling: 1 Year Results of the ADSORB Trial
- 2014
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Ingår i: European Journal of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery. - : Elsevier BV. - 1532-2165 .- 1078-5884. ; 48:3, s. 285-291
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: Uncomplicated acute type B aortic dissection (AD) treated conservatively has a 10% 30-day mortality and up to 25% need intervention within 4 years. In complicated AD, stent grafts have been encouraging. The aim of the present prospective randomised trial was to compare best medical treatment (BMT) with BMT and Gore TAG stent graft in patients with uncomplicated AD. The primary endpoint was a combination of incomplete/no false lumen thrombosis, aortic dilatation, or aortic rupture at 1 year. Methods: The AD history had to be less than 14 days, and exclusion criteria were rupture, impending rupture, malperfusion. Of the 61 patients randomised, 80% were DeBakey type IIIB. Results: Thirty-one patients were randomised to the BMT group and 30 to the BMT+TAG group. Mean age was 63 years for both groups. The left subclavian artery was completely covered in 47% and in part in 17% of the cases. During the first 30 days, no deaths occurred in either group, but there were three crossovers from the BMT to the BMT TAG group, all due to progression of disease within 1 week. There were two withdrawals from the BMT+TAG group. At the 1-year follow up there had been another two failures in the BMT group: one malperfusion and one aneurysm formation (p = .056 for all). One death occurred in the BMT TAG group. For the overall endpoint BMT+TAG was significantly different from BMT only (p < .001). Incomplete false lumen thrombosis, was found in 13 (43%) of the TAG+BMT group and 30 (97%) of the BMT group (p < .001). The false lumen reduced in size in the BMT+TAG group (p < .001) whereas in the BMT group it increased. The true lumen increased in the BMT TAG (p < .001) whereas in the BMT group it remained unchanged. The overall transverse diameter was the same at the beginning and after 1 year in the BMT group (42.1 mm), but in the BMT+TAG it decreased (38.8 mm; p = .062). Conclusions: Uncomplicated AD can be safely treated with the Gore TAG device. Remodelling with thrombosis of the false lumen and reduction of its diameter is induced by the stent graft, but long term results are needed. (C) 2014 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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- Buker, P., et al.
(författare)
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DO3SE modelling of soil moisture to determine ozone flux to forest trees
- 2012
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 12:12, s. 5537-5562
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The DO3SE (Deposition of O-3 for Stomatal Exchange) model is an established tool for estimating ozone (O-3) deposition, stomatal flux and impacts to a variety of vegetation types across Europe. It has been embedded within the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) photochemical model to provide a policy tool capable of relating the flux-based risk of vegetation damage to O-3 precursor emission scenarios for use in policy formulation. A key limitation of regional flux-based risk assessments has been the assumption that soil water deficits are not limiting O-3 flux due to the unavailability of evaluated methods for modelling soil water deficits and their influence on stomatal conductance (g(sto)), and subsequent O-3 flux. This paper describes the development and evaluation of a method to estimate soil moisture status and its influence on g(sto) for a variety of forest tree species. This DO3SE soil moisture module uses the Penman-Monteith energy balance method to drive water cycling through the soil-plant-atmosphere system and empirical data describing g(sto) relationships with pre-dawn leaf water status to estimate the biological control of transpiration. We trial four different methods to estimate this biological control of the transpiration stream, which vary from simple methods that relate soil water content or potential directly to g(sto), to more complex methods that incorporate hydraulic resistance and plant capacitance that control water flow through the plant system. These methods are evaluated against field data describing a variety of soil water variables, g(sto) and transpiration data for Norway spruce (Picea abies), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), birch (Betula pendula), aspen (Populus tremuloides), beech (Fagus sylvatica) and holm oak (Quercus ilex) collected from ten sites across Europe and North America. Modelled estimates of these variables show consistency with observed data when applying the simple empirical methods, with the timing and magnitude of soil drying events being captured well across all sites and reductions in transpiration with the onset of drought being predicted with reasonable accuracy. The more complex methods, which incorporate hydraulic resistance and plant capacitance, perform less well, with predicted drying cycles consistently underestimating the rate and magnitude of water loss from the soil. A sensitivity analysis showed that model performance was strongly dependent upon the local parameterisation of key model drivers such as the maximum g(sto), soil texture, root depth and leaf area index. The results suggest that the simple modelling methods that relate g(sto) directly to soil water content and potential provide adequate estimates of soil moisture and influence on g(sto) such that they are suitable to be used to assess the potential risk posed by O-3 to forest trees across Europe.
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- Feuerbacher, M., et al.
(författare)
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The Samson phase, β-Mg2Al3, Revisited
- 2007
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Ingår i: Zeitschrift für Kristallographie. - 0044-2968. ; 222:6, s. 259-288
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 8. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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