| 1. |
- Araza, Arnan, et al.
(författare)
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Past decade above-ground biomass change comparisons from four multi-temporal global maps
- 2023
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Ingår i: International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. - 1569-8432. ; 118
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Above-ground biomass (AGB) is considered an essential climate variable that underpins our knowledge and information about the role of forests in mitigating climate change. The availability of satellite-based AGB and AGB change (ΔAGB) products has increased in recent years. Here we assessed the past decade net ΔAGB derived from four recent global multi-date AGB maps: ESA-CCI maps, WRI-Flux model, JPL time series, and SMOS-LVOD time series. Our assessments explore and use different reference data sources with biomass re-measurements within the past decade. The reference data comprise National Forest Inventory (NFI) plot data, local ΔAGB maps from airborne LiDAR, and selected Forest Resource Assessment country data from countries with well-developed monitoring capacities. Map to reference data comparisons were performed at levels ranging from 100 m to 25 km spatial scale. The comparisons revealed that LiDAR data compared most reasonably with the maps, while the comparisons using NFI only showed some agreements at aggregation levels <10 km. Regardless of the aggregation level, AGB losses and gains according to the map comparisons were consistently smaller than the reference data. Map-map comparisons at 25 km highlighted that the maps consistently captured AGB losses in known deforestation hotspots. The comparisons also identified several carbon sink regions consistently detected by all maps. However, disagreement between maps is still large in key forest regions such as the Amazon basin. The overall ΔAGB map cross-correlation between maps varied in the range 0.11–0.29 (r). Reported ΔAGB magnitudes were largest in the high-resolution datasets including the CCI map differencing (stock change) and Flux model (gain-loss) methods, while they were smallest according to the coarser-resolution LVOD and JPL time series products, especially for AGB gains. Our results suggest that ΔAGB assessed from current maps can be biased and any use of the estimates should take that into account. Currently, ΔAGB reference data are sparse especially in the tropics but that deficit can be alleviated by upcoming LiDAR data networks in the context of Supersites and GEO-Trees.
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| 2. |
- Lerink, Bas J. W., et al.
(författare)
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How much wood can we expect from European forests in the near future?
- 2023
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Ingår i: Forestry (London). - : Oxford University Press. - 0015-752X .- 1464-3626. ; 96:4, s. 434-447
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The demand for wood in Europe is expected to increase in the coming decades. However, any theoretical maximum supply will be affected by sustainability constraints, the motivations of forest owners and regional factors, such as incentives, species and assortments. However, the influence of these factors on supply is changeable. In this study, we quantify what might be realistically available as additional wood supply from currently existing European forests, based on a combination of results of the forest resource model EFISCEN-Space and a literature review of national supply projections. Wood mobilization scenarios for 10 representative Model Regions in Europe that assume forest owners and managers in the simulated regions will adapt their behaviour to alternative behaviour as recorded from other regions were projected with the EFISCEN-Space model. The realistic additional potential based on the literature review is 90 million m(3) yr(-1). This potential should be attainable within 10-20 years. However, the simulations in the Model Regions found potentials to be lower in 7 out of 10 cases as compared with the country they are located in. On average, the model regions reached less than half of the potential as compared with the literature review. This suggests that the realistic additional potential at the European scale may well be lower if all mobilization barriers are taken into account in more detail, but also highlights the uncertainty surrounding these estimates. We conclude from the analyses that although there are large differences in potential between regions and the analysis method employed, there are no 'hotspots' where a large pool of accessible wood can be quickly mobilized using existing infrastructure for nearby industries. An increase in harvest would therefore only be possible with a large effort that spans the whole chain, from forest owners' behaviour to capacity building, financial incentives and matching resources to harvesting capacity. The additionally available wood can most likely only be mobilized against higher marginal costs and will thus only become available in times of higher stumpage prices. The largest potential lies in privately owned forests which often have a fragmented ownership but will most likely be able to supply more wood, though mostly from deciduous species. In the long term (more than 20 years), additional wood, compared with the amounts we found for short term, can only be made available through investments in afforestation, forest restoration, improved forest management and more efficient use of raw material and recycled material.
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| 3. |
- Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana, et al.
(författare)
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The consolidated European synthesis of CO2emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom : 1990-2018
- 2021
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 13:5, s. 2363-2406
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), including that of their trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of estimates for all anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of CO2 for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK), derived from a combination of state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources and models. Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of datasets involved, this study focuses on identifying essential questions which need to be answered to properly understand the differences between various datasets, in particular with regards to the less-well-characterized fluxes from managed ecosystems. The work integrates recent emission inventory data, process-based ecosystem model results, data-driven sector model results and inverse modeling estimates over the period 1990-2018. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported under the UNFCCC in 2019, aiming to assess and understand the differences between approaches. For the uncertainties in NGHGIs, we used the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the member states following the IPCC Guidelines. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, like atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arises from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. In comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, a key source of uncertainty is that related to different system boundaries and emission categories (CO2 fossil) and the use of different land use definitions for reporting emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities (CO2 land). At the EU27 + UK level, the NGHGI (2019) fossil CO2 emissions (including cement production) account for 2624 Tg CO2 in 2014 while all the other seven bottom-up sources are consistent with the NGHGIs and report a mean of 2588 (± 463 Tg CO2). The inversion reports 2700 Tg CO2 (± 480 Tg CO2), which is well in line with the national inventories. Over 2011-2015, the CO2 land sources and sinks from NGHGI estimates report-90 Tg C yr-1 ± 30 Tg C yr-1 while all other BU approaches report a mean sink of-98 Tg C yr-1 (± 362 Tg of C from dynamic global vegetation models only). For the TD model ensemble results, we observe a much larger spread for regional inversions (i.e., mean of 253 Tg C yr-1 ± 400 Tg C yr-1). This concludes that (a) current independent approaches are consistent with NGHGIs and (b) their uncertainty is too large to allow a verification because of model differences and probably also because of the definition of "CO2 flux"obtained from different approaches. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized.
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| 4. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Societal Impacts of Storm Damage
- 2013
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Ingår i: Living with Storm Damage to Forests. - : European Forest Institute. - 9789525980080 - 9789525980097 ; 3, s. 70-77
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wind damage to forests can be divided into (1) the direct damage done to the forest and (2) indirect effects. Indirect effects may be of different kinds and may affect the environ- ment as well as society. For example, falling trees can lead to power and telecommunica- tion failures or blocking of roads. The salvage harvest of fallen trees is another example and one that involves extremely dangerous work. In this overview we provide examples of different entities, services, and activities that may be affected by wind damage to for- ests. We illustrate how valuation of the damage depends on the perspective applied and how the affected entities, services, and activities may represent different types of values. Finally we suggest means for how to actively manage the risk in an ethically sustaina- ble way. Many of our examples will be drawn from the experiences of the wind damage Gudrun in southern Sweden on 8–9 January 2005. The direct as well as indirect effects, which are described, are by no means unique to the Gudrun wind damage event and similar or even worse effects have been described after the wind damage events Martin and Lothar in 1999, and Klaus in 2009.
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| 5. |
- Haeni, M., et al.
(författare)
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Winter respiratory C losses provide explanatory power for net ecosystem productivity
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - 2169-8953. ; 122:1, s. 243-260
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Accurate predictions of net ecosystem productivity (NEPc) of forest ecosystems are essential for climate change decisions and requirements in the context of national forest growth and greenhouse gas inventories. However, drivers and underlying mechanisms determining NEPc (e.g., climate and nutrients) are not entirely understood yet, particularly when considering the influence of past periods. Here we explored the explanatory power of the compensation day (cDOY)-defined as the day of year when winter net carbon losses are compensated by spring assimilation-for NEPc in 26 forests in Europe, North America, and Australia, using different NEPc integration methods. We found cDOY to be a particularly powerful predictor for NEPc of temperate evergreen needleleaf forests (R2=0.58) and deciduous broadleaf forests (R2=0.68). In general, the latest cDOY correlated with the lowest NEPc. The explanatory power of cDOY depended on the integration method for NEPc, forest type, and whether the site had a distinct winter net respiratory carbon loss or not. The integration methods starting in autumn led to better predictions of NEPc from cDOY then the classical calendar method starting 1 January. Limited explanatory power of cDOY for NEPc was found for warmer sites with no distinct winter respiratory loss period. Our findings highlight the importance of the influence of winter processes and the delayed responses of previous seasons' climatic conditions on current year's NEPc. Such carry-over effects may contain information from climatic conditions, carbon storage levels, and hydraulic traits of several years back in time.
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| 6. |
- McGrath, Matthew J., et al.
(författare)
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The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom : 1990-2020
- 2023
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - 1866-3508. ; 15:10, s. 4295-4370
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Quantification of land surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their trends and uncertainties is essential for monitoring progress of the EU27+UK bloc as it strives to meet ambitious targets determined by both international agreements and internal regulation. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of fossil sources (CO2 fossil) and natural (including formally managed ecosystems) sources and sinks over land (CO2 land) using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union and United Kingdom (EU27+UK), updating earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021). Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of approaches involved, this study aims to answer essential questions identified in the previous syntheses and understand the differences between datasets, particularly for poorly characterized fluxes from managed and unmanaged ecosystems. The work integrates updated emission inventory data, process-based model results, data-driven categorical model results, and inverse modeling estimates, extending the previous period 1990-2018 to the year 2020 to the extent possible. BU and TD products are compared with the European national greenhouse gas inventory (NGHGI) reported by parties including the year 2019 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The uncertainties of the EU27+UK NGHGI were evaluated using the standard deviation reported by the EU member states following the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and harmonized by gap-filling procedures. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, such as atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), originate from within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. By comparing the NGHGI with other approaches, key sources of differences between estimates arise primarily in activities. System boundaries and emission categories create differences in CO2 fossil datasets, while different land use definitions for reporting emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) activities result in differences for CO2 land. The latter has important consequences for atmospheric inversions, leading to inversions reporting stronger sinks in vegetation and soils than are reported by the NGHGI. For CO2 fossil emissions, after harmonizing estimates based on common activities and selecting the most recent year available for all datasets, the UNFCCC NGHGI for the EU27+UK accounts for 926g±g13gTggCgyr-1, while eight other BU sources report a mean value of 948 [937,961]gTggCgyr-1 (25th, 75th percentiles). The sole top-down inversion of fossil emissions currently available accounts for 875gTggC in this same year, a value outside the uncertainty of both the NGHGI and bottom-up ensemble estimates and for which uncertainty estimates are not currently available. For the net CO2 land fluxes, during the most recent 5-year period including the NGHGI estimates, the NGHGI accounted for -91g±g32gTggCgyr-1, while six other BU approaches reported a mean sink of -62 [-117,-49]gTggCgyr-1, and a 15-member ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) reported -69 [-152,-5]gTggCgyr-1. The 5-year mean of three TD regional ensembles combined with one non-ensemble inversion of -73gTggCgyr-1 has a slightly smaller spread (0th-100th percentiles of [-135,+45]gTggCgyr-1), and it was calculated after removing net land-atmosphere CO2 fluxes caused by lateral transport of carbon (crop trade, wood trade, river transport, and net uptake from inland water bodies), resulting in increased agreement with the NGHGI and bottom-up approaches. Results at the category level (Forest Land, Cropland, Grassland) generally show good agreement between the NGHGI and category-specific models, but results for DGVMs are mixed. Overall, for both CO2 fossil and net CO2 land fluxes, we find that current independent approaches are consistent with the NGHGI at the scale of the EU27+UK. We conclude that CO2 emissions from fossil sources have decreased over the past 30 years in the EU27+UK, while land fluxes are relatively stable: positive or negative trends larger (smaller) than 0.07 (-0.61)gTggCgyr-2 can be ruled out for the NGHGI. In addition, a gap on the order of 1000gTggCgyr-1 between CO2 fossil emissions and net CO2 uptake by the land exists regardless of the type of approach (NGHGI, TD, BU), falling well outside all available estimates of uncertainties. However, uncertainties in top-down approaches to estimate CO2 fossil emissions remain uncharacterized and are likely substantial, in addition to known uncertainties in top-down estimates of the land fluxes. The data used to plot the figures are available at 10.5281/zenodo.8148461 (McGrath et al., 2023).
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| 7. |
- Seidl, Rupert, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review
- 2011
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Ingår i: Ecological Modelling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3800. ; 222:4, s. 903-924
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems, addressing the full spectrum of disturbance modelling from single events to integrated disturbance regimes. We applied a general, process-based framework founded in disturbance ecology to analyze modelling approaches for drought, wind, forest fires, insect pests and ungulate browsing. Modelling approaches were reviewed by disturbance agent and mechanism, and a set of general disturbance modelling concepts was deduced. We found that although the number of disturbance modelling approaches emerging over the last 15 years has increased strongly, statistical concepts for descriptive modelling are still largely prevalent over mechanistic concepts for explanatory and predictive applications. Yet, considering the increasing importance of disturbances for forest dynamics and ecosystem stewardship under anthropogenic climate change, the latter concepts are crucial tool for understanding and coping with change in forest ecosystems. Current challenges for disturbance modelling in forest ecosystems are thus (i) to overcome remaining limits in process understanding, (ii) to further a mechanistic foundation in disturbance modelling, (iii) to integrate multiple disturbance processes in dynamic ecosystem models for decision support in forest management, and (iv) to bring together scaling capabilities across several levels of organization with a representation of system complexity that captures the emergent behaviour of disturbance regimes. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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