| 1. |
- Halkia, Matina, et al.
(författare)
-
The Global Conflict Risk Index : A quantitative tool for policy support on conflict prevention
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Progress in Disaster Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-0617. ; 6
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In an effort to bridge the gap between academic and governmental initiatives on quantitative conflict modelling, this article presents, validates and discusses the Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI), the quantitative starting point of the European Union Conflict Early Warning System. Based on open-source data of five risk areas representing the structural conditions characterising a given country (political, economic, social, environmental and security areas), it evaluates the risk of violent conflict in the next one to four years. Using logistic regression, the GCRI calculates the probability of national and subnational conflict risk. Several model design decisions, including definition of the dependent variable, predictor variable selection, data imputation, and probability threshold definition, are tested and discussed in light of the model's direct application in the EU policy support on conflict prevention. While the GCRI remains firmly rooted by its conception and development in the European conflict prevention policy agenda, it is validated as a scientifically robust and rigorous method for a baseline quantitative evaluation of armed conflict risk. Despite its standard, simple methodology, the model predicts better than six other published quantitative conflict early warning systems for ten out of twelve reported performance metrics. Thereby, this article aims to contribute to a cross-fertilisation of academic and governmental efforts in quantitative conflict risk modelling.
|
|
| 2. |
- Schellens, Marie K., et al.
(författare)
-
Critical Natural Resources : Challenging the Current Discourse and Proposal for a Holistic Definition
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Resources. - : MDPI AG. - 2079-9276. ; 7:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studies on critical natural resources have grown in number over the last decade out of concern for resource availability and its potential impacts. Nonetheless, only a handful of studies explicitly define criticality for natural resources. Through a systematic literature review, we identified four main perspectives in the descriptions of critical natural resources: (1) economic importance is overemphasized at the expense of sociocultural and ecosystem support functions of natural resources; (2) a Western perspective dominates the research discourse; (3) apart from the field of economics, the debate lacks input from social sciences; and (4), non-renewable resources are overrepresented compared to renewables. Based on the current discourse and its apparent inclinations, we propose a new definition of criticality for natural resources aligned with risk theory. We argue for the need to balance out the perspectives described above to provide decision-makers with impartial information for the sustainable management of natural resources.
|
|
| 3. |
- Schellens, Marie K., 1993-, et al.
(författare)
-
Natural Resource Conflicts : Definition and Three Frameworks to Aid Analysis
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Partnerships for the Goals. - Cham : Springer Nature. - 9783319959627 - 9783319959634 - 9783319959641 ; , s. 787-804
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Definition: social or political conflict where natural resources contribute to the onset, agravation, or sustaining of the conflict, due to disagreements or competition over the access and management of natural resources, and the unequal burdens, benefits, profits, or power derived thereof.
|
|
| 4. |
- Schellens, Marie K., 1993-, et al.
(författare)
-
Natural resource conflicts : causal network analysis to identify key variables towards conflict prevention and peacebuilding
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Natural resource use is frequently identified as a key driver of violent conflicts. A number of theories have been proposed to explain how signals from natural resource systems translate through socio-economic and political contexts into violent conflicts. However, to date these theories have provided only partial representations of the resource-conflict nexus, sometimes overly simplified or contested due to the large number of important intervening socio-economic and political variables. As a first step towards a systemic assessment of key variables towards conflict prevention and peacebuilding, we systematically reviewed the scientific literature to map the established direct and indirect causal relationships linking natural resources and violent conflict. From 19 selected key review papers, we originally identified 2626 variables and 2586 causal relationships, which were integrated and reduced through iterative aggregation steps to a single causal network comprising 542 variables and 1525 causal relationships between them. We analysed the structure of this causal network using five network analysis metrics and identified 40 key variables of the resource-conflict nexus. One-third of these key variables related to quality of governance, whilst other key variables related to conflict, economic, environmental, and social themes, interconnected from local to international geographical scales. The results confirmed the multi-dimensional and cross-scale character of natural resource conflicts. The results also underline the importance of causal feedback loops in the resource-conflict nexus, which have been understudied and align well with the understanding of conflict phases throughout the conflict cycle. To reverse vicious circles of violent conflict into virtuous circles of peaceful development, we identified the strongest intervention points in building capacity for collective action, improving natural resource governance, strengthening state capacity, and balancing supply and demand. Natural resource exploitation, its revenues, and improvement and conservation of the environment can stabilise peaceful situations. These findings provide a crucial first step towards improved understanding of the systemic causes of natural resource conflicts in support of effective policies for conflict prevention and peacebuilding.
|
|
| 5. |
- Schellens, Marie K., 1993-, et al.
(författare)
-
Revisiting the Contested Role of Natural Resources in Violent Conflict Risk through Machine Learning
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 12:16
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The integrated character of the sustainable development goals in Agenda 2030, as well as research in environmental security, flag that sustainable peace requires sustainable and conflict-sensitive natural resource use. The precise relationship between the risk for violent conflict and natural resources remains contested because of the interplay with socio-economic variables. This paper aims to improve the understanding of natural resources’ role in the risk of violent conflicts by accounting for complex interactions with socio-economic conditions. Conflict data was analysed with machine learning techniques, which can account for complex patterns, such as variable interactions. More commonly used logistic regression models are compared with neural network models and random forest models. The results indicate that a country’s natural resource features are important predictors of its risk for violent conflict and that they interact with socio-economic conditions. Based on these empirical results and the existing literature, we interpret that natural resources can be root causes of violent intrastate conflict, and that signals from natural resources leading to conflict risk are reflected in and influenced by interacting socio-economic conditions. More specifically, the results show that variables such as access to water and food security are important predictors of conflict, while resource rents and oil and ore exports are relatively less important than other natural resource variables, contrasting what prior research has suggested. Given the potential of natural resource features to act as an early warning for violent conflict, we argue that natural resources should be included in conflict risk models for conflict prevention.
|
|
| 6. |
- Schellens, Marie K., 1993-
(författare)
-
Violent natural resource conflicts : From definitions to prevention
- 2020
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- General scientific consensus is growing that natural resources play an important role in violent conflicts. Both scarcity and abundance contribute to violent conflict, depending on the socio-economic and political conditions at play. Therefore, the criticality of natural resources might better describe the link to violent conflict than scarcity or abundance. Yet, research struggles to unravel the precise socio-environmental mechanisms that bring about natural resource conflicts. Consequently, interventions in natural resource management have shown limited effectiveness towards conflict prevention and peacebuilding.The overarching aim of this thesis is to advance the understanding of mechanisms underlying violent natural resource conflicts towards effective prevention. This thesis focuses on violent natural resource conflicts within states since 1989, because with the end of the Cold War the character of armed conflicts turned increasingly intrastate. I pose the following questions: (1) What constitutes critical natural resources? (2) Are natural resources and violent conflicts related quantitatively, after considering their complex socio-economic and political contexts? (3) What are the core socio-environmental causal pathways linking natural resources and violent conflicts? (4) What opportunities are available to prevent violent conflict from resource use? A multi-method approach was applied, including systematic literature reviews, open-coding of text data, predictive modelling with logistic regression and machine learning techniques, causal network mapping, and a network analysis of the causal map.The first paper of this thesis shows that existing descriptions of critical natural resources overemphasize their economic importance at the expense of ecosystem support and socio-cultural functions of natural resources; and that non-renewable resources are overrepresented compared to renewables. Therefore, it proposes a new, holistic, definition of criticality for natural resources, based on a hierarchy of human needs instead of only economic value. The second and third papers confirm the importance of natural resource variables in numerically predicting conflict, though their effects are often mediated by the intervening socio-economic variables. More specifically, renewables such as water and food are important predictors of conflict, while non-renewables are less important than prior research suggested. Of all socio-environmental interactions identified, food production interacts most strongly with its economic and demographic context. The fourth paper identified key structural points on the causal paths towards natural resource conflicts, which potentially function towards effective prevention. To reverse vicious circles of conflict to virtuous circles of peace, my analysis found that it is necessary to improve state and natural resource management institutions, balance resource availability and demand, limit population movements, and ensure adequate livelihoods. My analysis further found that resource exploitation and the revenues generated thereof, as well as environmental conservation and curbing environmental degradation can stabilize peaceful situations.
|
|
