| 1. |
- Blach, S., et al.
(författare)
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Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:5, s. 396-415
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 3. |
- Watton, P. N., et al.
(författare)
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Modelling evolution and the evolving mechanical environment of saccular cerebral aneurysms
- 2011
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Ingår i: Biomechanics and Modeling in Mechanobiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1617-7959 .- 1617-7940. ; 10:1, s. 109-132
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A fluid-solid-growth (FSG) model of saccular cerebral aneurysm evolution is developed. It utilises a realistic two-layered structural model of the internal carotid artery and explicitly accounts for the degradation of the elastinous constituents and growth and remodelling (G&R) of the collagen fabric. Aneurysm inception is prescribed: a localised degradation of elastin results in a perturbation in the arterial geometry; the collagen fabric adapts, and the artery achieves a new homeostatic configuration. The perturbation to the geometry creates an altered haemodynamic environment. Subsequent degradation of elastin is explicitly linked to low wall shear stress (WSS) in a confined region of the arterial domain. A sidewall saccular aneurysm develops, the collagen fabric adapts and the aneurysm stabilises in size. A quasi-static analysis is performed to determine the geometry at diastolic pressure. This enables the cyclic stretching of the tissue to be quantified, and we propose a novel index to quantify the degree of biaxial stretching of the tissue. Whilst growth is linked to low WSS from a steady (systolic) flow analysis, a pulsatile flow analysis is performed to compare steady and pulsatile flow parameters during evolution. This model illustrates the evolving mechanical environment for an idealised saccular cerebral aneurysm developing on a cylindrical parent artery and provides the guidance to more sophisticated FSG models of aneurysm evolution which link G&R to the local mechanical stimuli of vascular cells.
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| 4. |
- Johansson, Inger, 1953, et al.
(författare)
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Cytomegalovirus infection and disease reduce 10-year cardiac allograft vasculopathy-free survival in heart transplant recipients
- 2015
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Ingår i: Bmc Infectious Diseases. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2334. ; 15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is associated with an increased risk of cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV), the major limiting factor for long-term survival after heart transplantation (HTx). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of CMV infection during long-term follow-up after HTx. Methods: A retrospective, single-centre study analyzed 226 HTx recipients (mean age 45 +/- 13 years, 78 % men) who underwent transplantation between January 1988 and December 2000. The incidence and risk factors for CMV infection during the first year after transplantation were studied. Risk factors for CAV were included in an analyses of CAV-free survival within 10 years post-transplant. The effect of CMV infection on the grade of CAV was analyzed. Results: Survival to 10 years post-transplant was higher in patients with no CMV infection (69 %) compared with patients with CMV disease (55 %; p = 0.018) or asymptomatic CMV infection (54 %; p = 0.053). CAV-free survival time was higher in patients with no CMV infection (6.7 years; 95 % CI, 6.0-7.4) compared with CMV disease (4.2 years; CI, 3.2-5.2; p < 0.001) or asymptomatic CMV infection (5.4 years; CI, 4.3-6.4; p = 0.013). In univariate analysis, recipient age, donor age, coronary artery disease (CAD), asymptomatic CMV infection and CMV disease were significantly associated with CAV-free survival. In multivariate regression analysis, CMV disease, asymptomatic CMV infection, CAD and donor age remained independent predictors of CAV-free survival at 10 years post-transplant. Conclusions: CAV-free survival was significantly reduced in patients with CMV disease and asymptomatic CMV infection compared to patients without CMV infection. These findings highlight the importance of close monitoring of CMV viral load and appropriate therapeutic strategies for preventing asymptomatic CMV infection.
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| 5. |
- Sadik, May, 1970, et al.
(författare)
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Improved stroke volume assessment in the aortic and mitral valves with a new method in subjects without regurgitation
- 2005
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Ingår i: Eur J Echocardiogr. - 1525-2167. ; 6:3, s. 210-8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Echocardiography combining Doppler and two-dimensional data is recommended for quantitative assessments of valvular regurgitation. We applied a new method to calculate the mitral annulus (MA) area in combination with multiple sample sites. Individuals without regurgitation in whom the valvular and left ventricular stroke volumes (SV) should be identical were investigated in order to evaluate the feasibility in quantitative assessments of valvular regurgitation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty subjects were included. Flow velocity was registered with pulsed Doppler in different positions in the left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) and in the MA. The MA area was assumed to be either circular, using the diameter from a four-chamber projection, or elliptic, using the major diameter from a parasternal short axis and a minor diameter from an apical long axis. Left ventricular (LV) SV was measured from LV volumes using the biplane method. The overall difference between LVOT SV and mitral SV using one centrally located measurement and elliptic MA was 3.2+/-15.6 ml (P=0.38), 0.9+/-15.7 ml between LVOT SV and LV SV (P=0.80) and -2.2+/-15.2 ml between mitral SV and LV SV (P=0.54). The corresponding standard deviation of the differences as a percentage of the mean value was 24%, 25% and 23%. A circular shaped MA overestimated the mitral SV compared with LVOT SV (P=0.009) and LV SV (P=0.004). Increasing the number of sample sites in the LVOT or MA did not further improve the results. CONCLUSION: Doppler and two-dimensional echocardiography can be used to quantify regurgitation in groups of patients. In individual patients the wide distribution of differences between valves and LV SV implies that the method should be used in conjunction with other Doppler echocardiographic parameters.
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| 6. |
- Selimovic, A., et al.
(författare)
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A computational framework to explore the role of pulsatile haemodynamics on cerebral aneurysm development for patient-specific arterial geometries
- 2010
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Ingår i: 6th World Congress of Biomechanics (WCB 2010). August 1-6, 2010 Singapore. - Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin/Heidelberg. - 9783642145148 ; , s. 759-762
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A patient-specific cerebral aneurysm case was identified from clinical imaging data, and then segmented to create a geometrical representation of the aneurysm and surrounding vasculature. Using ANSYS ICEM CFD, the geometry was manipulated to remove the aneurysm and replace it with a short (initially cylindrical) section, which reconnected to the upstream and downstream arterial sections so that the surface gradients were continuous. This section is modelled using a realistic constitutive model of the arterial wall and is the location where the computational model of the aneurysm evolves. The aneurysm evolution FEA model is combined with detailed 3D haemodynamic solutions using ANSYS CFX. A rigid-wall approach is adopted to solve the flow, to derive the haemodynamic stimuli that act on the endothelial cell layer of the tissue. Additionally, the geometry of the aneurysm is obtained at systolic and diastolic pressures (using a quasi-static approach) to obtain the cyclic stretch experienced by the cells within the arterial wall. This is the first patient-specific model of cerebral aneurysm evolution to explicitly link growth and remodelling of arterial tissue to the local mechanical environment. It will provide the basis for investigating the role and importance of various mechanical stimuli on the progression of the disease and will yield improved understanding of the aetiology of cerebral aneurysm formation.
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