| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 5. |
- Sharma, Neha Kapila, et al.
(författare)
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Electronic bandstructure modulation of MoX2/ZnO(X:S,Se) heterostructure by applying external electric field
- 2022
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Ingår i: SURFACES AND INTERFACES. - : Elsevier. - 2468-0230. ; 29
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The electronic properties of 2-Dimensional Van der Waals heterostructure of MX2(M:Mo, X:S, Se) and graphenelike ZnO by applying an external electric field(EF) in the range -0.50V/angstrom to 1.0V/angstrom is studied using first principles calculations. The effect of the transverse electric field is measured in terms of modulation of the electronic energy bandgap and change in the band alignment properties. The bandstructure of MoS2/ZnO heterostructure(HS) shows an indirect bandgap of 1.61eV with a type-II band alignment and a large built-in electric field of 7.42eV with a valence band offset of 1.22eV across the interface. The bandstructure of MoSe2/ZnO shows a direct bandgap of 1.81eV with type-I alignment and a built-in electric field of 3.64eV with a band offset of 0.31eV. The charge density is localized on MoS2 and ZnO in VBM and CBM respectively in MoS2/ZnO HS, whereas in MoSe2/ZnO, both VBM and CBM are localized on MoSe2. With a perpendicular electric field applied across the HS, re-alignment of bandstructure and modulation of bandgap in both the HSs occurs. The energy bandgap increases linearly with the applied electric field for MoS2/ZnO(1.1-2.2eV) and remains almost constant (1.81eV) in the range -0.50V/angstrom to 0.50V/angstrom followed by a small decrease with an increase in electric field (1.60 for EF=+/- 1.0V/angstrom). A cross-over in the bandgap type from indirect(type-II)-> direct(type-I) in MoS2-ZnO and direct(type-I) to indirect(type-II) in MoSe2/ZnO has been observed at a critical value of electric field EF=0.75V/ angstrom. The cross-over in band structure is consistent with the charge transfer pattern observed on the application of electric field. Tuning the electronic bandgap and changing the band-alignment with an external electric field opens a way to design futuristic electronic and optical devices.
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| 6. |
- Sharma, P., et al.
(författare)
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Ferromagnetism above room temperature in bulk and transparent thin films of Mn-doped ZnO
- 2003
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Ingår i: Nature Materials. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-1122 .- 1476-4660. ; 2:10, s. 673-677
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The search for ferromagnetism above room temperature in dilute magnetic semiconductors has been intense in recent years. We report the first observations of ferromagnetism above room temperature for dilute (<4 at.%) Mn-doped ZnO. The Mn is found to carry an average magnetic moment of 0.16 μ(B) per ion. Our ab initio calculations find a valance state of Mn2+ and that the magnetic moments are ordered ferromagnetically, consistent with the experimental findings. We have obtained room-temperature ferromagnetic ordering in bulk pellets, in transparent films 2-3 μm thick, and in the powder form of the same material. The unique feature of our sample preparation was the low-temperature processing. When standard high-temperature (T>700degreesC) methods were used, samples were found to exhibit clustering and were not ferromagnetic at room temperature. This capability to fabricate ferromagnetic Mn-doped ZnO semiconductors promises new spintronic devices as well as magneto-optic components.
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| 7. |
- Ahuja, B. L., et al.
(författare)
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A study of electron momentum density and charge transfer in W-Cu system
- 2009
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Ingår i: Journal of Alloys and Compounds. - : Elsevier BV. - 0925-8388 .- 1873-4669. ; 467:1-2, s. 595-599
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the first ever Compton scattering study on WxCu1-x(x=0.60, 0.72) alloys. The Compton profile measurements have been made using 20Ci (CS)-C-137 gamma-ray source. The experimental data are compared with the superposition of APW-based Compton profiles of constituent metals. A schematic study on charge transfer has been reported using the experimental valence band Compton profiles of both the alloys, W and Cu. Our first ever data support the charge transfer from W to Cu on alloying, which is also confirmed by our band structure calculations employing exact muffin-tin orbitals method (EMTO). (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 8. |
- Guo, J. H., et al.
(författare)
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X-ray spectroscopic study of the charge state and local ordering of room-temperature ferromagnetic Mn-doped ZnO
- 2007
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Ingår i: Journal of Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 0953-8984 .- 1361-648X. ; 19:17
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The charge state and local ordering of Mn doped into a pulsed laser deposited single-phase thin film of ZnO are investigated by using x-ray absorption spectroscopy at the O K-edge, Mn K-edge and L-edge, and x-ray emission spectroscopy at the O K-edge and Mn L-edge. This film is ferromagnetic at room temperature. EXAFS measurement shows that Mn2+ replaces the Zn site in tetrahedral symmetry, and there is no evidence for either metallic Mn or MnO in the film. Upon Mn doping, the top of O 2p valence band extends into the bandgap, indicating additional charge carriers being created.
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| 9. |
- Gupta, Rajeev Kumar, et al.
(författare)
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Influence of 11 years of crop residue management on rice productivity under varied nitrogen levels in the rice-wheat cropping system
- 2023
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Ingår i: Plant, Soil and Environment (Praha). - : Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences. - 1214-1178 .- 1805-9368. ; 69:7, s. 333-343
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The present study compares the six crop residue management techniques in main plots (since 2008) and three split nitrogen (N) levels, i.e., 75, 100 and 125 kg N/ha in subplots for rice crops for two years, i.e., 2019 and 2020, in sandy loam soil under field conditions. This experiment evaluated the long-term effect on rice productivity, soil organic carbon content and nutrient requirement in rice-wheat cropping system. The results revealed that different crop residue management practices and N levels significantly influenced rice growth, yield and yield attributes and improved nutrient uptake by grain and straw. Maximum grain yields of 20.8% and 17.8% higher over the conventional (no straw) treatment during 2019 and 2020, respectively, were recorded where the rice and wheat residue was re-tained or incorporated. The rice grain yield without residue responded significantly up to 125 kg N/ha. Whereas, with rice and wheat residue, rice grain yield did not respond to the application of N beyond 75 kg N/ha during both years.
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| 10. |
- Gupta, Rajeev Kumar, et al.
(författare)
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Interactive effects of long-term management of crop residue and phosphorus fertilization on wheat productivity and soil health in the rice–wheat
- 2024
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Nature. - 2045-2322. ; 14:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the context of degradation of soil health, environmental pollution, and yield stagnation in the rice–wheat system in the Indo-Gangetic Plains of South Asia, an experiment was established in split plot design to assess the long-term effect of crop residue management on productivity and phosphorus requirement of wheat in rice–wheat system. The experiment comprised of six crop residue management practices as the main treatment factor with three levels (0, 30 and 60 kg P2O5 ha–1) of phosphorus fertilizer as sub-treatments. Significant improvement in soil aggregation, bulk density, and infiltration rate was observed under residue management (retention/incorporation) treatments compared to residue removal or residue burning. Soil organic carbon (SOC), available nutrient content (N, P, and K), microbial count, and enzyme activities were also significantly higher in conservation tillage and residue-treated plots than without residue/burning treatments. The residue derived from both crops when was either retained/incorporated improved the soil organic carbon (0.80%) and resulted in a significant increase in SOC (73.9%) in the topsoil layer as compared to the conventional practice. The mean effect studies revealed that crop residue management practices and phosphorus levels significantly influenced wheat yield attributes and productivity. The higher grain yield of wheat was recorded in two treatments, i.e. the basal application of 60 kg P2O5 ha–1 without residue incorporation and the other with half the P-fertilizer (30 kg P2O5 ha–1) with rice residue only. The grain yield of wheat where the rice and wheat residue were either retained/incorporated without phosphorus application was at par with 30 and 60 kg P2O5ha–1. Phosphorus levels also significantly affected wheat productivity and available P content in the soil. Therefore, results suggested that crop residue retention following the conservation tillage approach improved the yield of wheat cultivated in the rice–wheat cropping system.
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