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- Emerging Risk Factors, Collaboration, et al.
(författare)
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The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration: analysis of individual data on lipid, inflammatory and other markers in over 1.1 million participants in 104 prospective studies of cardiovascular diseases
- 2007
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Ingår i: Eur J Epidemiol. - 0393-2990. ; 22:12, s. 839-69
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many long-term prospective studies have reported on associations of cardiovascular diseases with circulating lipid markers and/or inflammatory markers. Studies have not, however, generally been designed to provide reliable estimates under different circumstances and to correct for within-person variability. The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration has established a central database on over 1.1 million participants from 104 prospective population-based studies, in which subsets have information on lipid and inflammatory markers, other characteristics, as well as major cardiovascular morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Information on repeat measurements on relevant characteristics has been collected in approximately 340,000 participants to enable estimation of and correction for within-person variability. Re-analysis of individual data will yield up to approximately 69,000 incident fatal or nonfatal first ever major cardiovascular outcomes recorded during about 11.7 million person years at risk. The primary analyses will involve age-specific regression models in people without known baseline cardiovascular disease in relation to fatal or nonfatal first ever coronary heart disease outcomes. This initiative will characterize more precisely and in greater detail than has previously been possible the shape and strength of the age- and sex-specific associations of several lipid and inflammatory markers with incident coronary heart disease outcomes (and, secondarily, with other incident cardiovascular outcomes) under a wide range of circumstances. It will, therefore, help to determine to what extent such associations are independent from possible confounding factors and to what extent such markers (separately and in combination) provide incremental predictive value.
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| 2. |
- Gregson, J., et al.
(författare)
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Cardiovascular Risk Factors Associated With Venous Thromboembolism
- 2019
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Ingår i: JAMA Cardiology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0965-2590 .- 2380-6583 .- 2380-6591. ; 4:2, s. 163-173
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE It is uncertain to what extent established cardiovascular risk factors are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). OBJECTIVE To estimate the associations of major cardiovascular risk factors with VTE, ie, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This study included individual participant data mostly from essentially population-based cohort studies from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 731728 participants; 75 cohorts; years of baseline surveys, February 1960 to June 2008; latest date of follow-up, December 2015) and the UK Biobank (421537 participants; years of baseline surveys, March 2006 to September 2010; latest date of follow-up, February 2016). Participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline were included. Data were analyzed from June 2017 to September 2018. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher usual risk factor levels (or presence/absence). Incident fatal outcomes in ERFC (VTE, 1041; coronary heart disease [CND], 25131) and incident fatal/nonfatal outcomes in UK Biobank (VTE, 2321; CHD, 3385). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS Of the 731728 participants from the ERFC. 403 396 (55.1%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 51.9 (9.0) years; of the 421537 participants from the UK Biobank, 233 699 (55.4%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 56.4 (8.1) years. Risk factors for VTE included older age (ERFC: HR per decade, 2.67; 95% CI, 2.45-2.91; UK Biobank: HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.71-1.92), current smoking (ERFC: HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.20-1.58; UK Biobank: HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08-1.40), and BMI (ERFC: HR per 1-SD higher BMI, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.50; UK Biobank: HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.32-1.41). For these factors, there were similar HRs for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in UK Biobank (except adiposity was more strongly associated with pulmonary embolism) and similar HRs for unprovoked vs provoked VTE. Apart from adiposity, these risk factors were less strongly associated with VTE than CHD. There were inconsistent associations of VTEs with diabetes and blood pressure across ERFC and UK Biobank, and there was limited ability to study lipid and inflammation markers. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Older age, smoking, and adiposity were consistently associated with higher VTE risk.
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| 3. |
- Hageman, S., et al.
(författare)
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SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe
- 2021
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 42:25, s. 2439-2454
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
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| 4. |
- Heikkila, K., et al.
(författare)
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Job strain and the risk of severe asthma exacerbations : a meta-analysis of individual-participant data from 100 000 European men and women
- 2014
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Ingår i: Allergy. European Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology. - : Wiley. - 0105-4538 .- 1398-9995. ; 69:6, s. 775-783
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundMany patients and healthcare professionals believe that work-related psychosocial stress, such as job strain, can make asthma worse, but this is not corroborated by empirical evidence. We investigated the associations between job strain and the incidence of severe asthma exacerbations in working-age European men and women. MethodsWe analysed individual-level data, collected between 1985 and 2010, from 102 175 working-age men and women in 11 prospective European studies. Job strain (a combination of high demands and low control at work) was self-reported at baseline. Incident severe asthma exacerbations were ascertained from national hospitalization and death registries. Associations between job strain and asthma exacerbations were modelled using Cox regression and the study-specific findings combined using random-effects meta-analyses. ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 10years, 1 109 individuals experienced a severe asthma exacerbation (430 with asthma as the primary diagnostic code). In the age- and sex-adjusted analyses, job strain was associated with an increased risk of severe asthma exacerbations defined using the primary diagnostic code (hazard ratio, HR: 1.27, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.00, 1.61). This association attenuated towards the null after adjustment for potential confounders (HR: 1.22, 95% CI: 0.96, 1.55). No association was observed in the analyses with asthma defined using any diagnostic code (HR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.86, 1.19). ConclusionsOur findings suggest that job strain is probably not an important risk factor for severe asthma exacerbations leading to hospitalization or death.
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| 6. |
- Hiyoshi, Ayako, 1972-, et al.
(författare)
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Low economic growth and health inequalities in a rich country : 27-year Japanese time series
- 2020
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Ingår i: European Journal of Public Health. - : Oxford University Press. - 1101-1262 .- 1464-360X. ; 30:Suppl. 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This presentation extends the public health theme in relation to Sustainable Development Goal #8, focusing on the health inequality trend in Japan. It is important to understand whether low economic growth is compatible with a low level of health inequalities. Unlike the UK and USA, life expectancy in Japan continued to improve despite a stagnant economy.Ten triennial waves of a nationally representative survey in Japan, 1986-2013 (n = 731,647) were used. Slope and Relative Indices of Inequality (SII and RII respectively) in relation to net household income and self-rated good health were calculated. Analyses were stratified by sex and age, for children, working-age adults, younger old and older old, given age differences in relation to labour market. Time trends of SII and RII were tested during the period of economic stagnation 1992-2013.In all age groups, prevalence of good health declined slightly from its peak in 1995 but increased after 2007. In 1992 among children, working-age adults and younger old, health in equal-ity based on SII was small, about 10% lower prevalence of good health in those with lowest compared to highest income. Among working-age adults, time trends of health inequalities based on SII narrowed from 1992 and then widened after 2002 (quadratic trends in men and women p < 0.05), resulting in the magnitude of health inequality returning to its level at the beginning of economic stagnation in 1992 but not exceeding it. Time trends in relative inequality (RII) were qualitatively similar to those in absolute inequality (SII).The long-term low-growth Japanese economy appears compatible with maintaining and improving population health and holding health inequalities at current levels. This evidence is of great significance for sustainable development and the health of current and future generations.
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| 7. |
- Hiyoshi, Ayako, 1972-, et al.
(författare)
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Low economic growth, health, health inequalities and sustainable development goals in a rich country : 27-year Japanese time series
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0143-005X .- 1470-2738. ; 74:Suppl. 1, s. A40-A41
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Background: Sustainable Development Goal #8 refers to decent work and economic growth. In the context of climate change and global resource depletion, it is important to understand whether low economic growth is compatible with positive population health in rich countries, particularly because the past decade of austerity in the UK and USA is associated with stagnating life expectancy. Japan provides a natural experiment in that it has experienced low economic growth since 1992, and life expectancy continued to improve. However, the trend in health inequality in good self-rated health is unknown.Methods: We examined trends in health and health inequalities using ten triennial waves of a nationally representative survey in Japan, 1986–2013 (n=731,647). Change in age-standardized self-rated good health was calculated, and health inequalities and their time trends were calculated using Slope and Relative Indices of Inequality (SII and RII respectively) in relation to net household income. Analyses were stratified by sex and age, for children (6–18 years), working-age adults (20–59 years), younger old (60–69 years) and older old (70–79 years), given age differences in relation to the economy and labour market. Time trends of SII and RII were tested during the period of economic stagnation 1992–2013.Results: Overall, age-standardised self-rated good health was high among children (70%) and low among the older old (30%). In all age groups, prevalence of good health declined slightly from its peak in 1995 but increased after 2007. In 1992 among children, working-age adults and younger old, health inequality based on SII for net household income was small (approximately 10% lower prevalence of good health in those with lowest compared to highest income). Among working-age adults, time trends of health inequalities between 1992 and 2013 were curvilinear. The SII narrowed and then widened after 2002 (quadratic trends in men and women p<0.05), resulting in the magnitude of health inequality returning to its level at the beginning of economic stagnation in 1992 but not exceeding it. Time trends in relative inequality (RII) were qualitatively similar to those in absolute inequality (SII). Health inequality narrowed and then widened, and the RIIs in 2013 was no larger than those in 1992.Conclusion: The long-term low-growth Japanese economy appears compatible with maintaining and improving population health and holding health inequalities at current levels. This evidence is of great significance for sustainable development and the health of current and future generations.
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| 8. |
- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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