| 1. |
- Ivanics, Tommy, et al.
(författare)
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Dynamic risk profiling of HCC recurrence after curative intent liver resection
- 2022
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Ingår i: Hepatology. - : Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health). - 0270-9139 .- 1527-3350. ; 76:5, s. 1291-1301
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and Aim: Following liver resection (LR) for HCC, the likelihood of survival is dynamic, in that multiple recurrences and/or metastases are possible, each having variable impacts on outcomes. We sought to evaluate the natural progression, pattern, and timing of various disease states after LR for HCC using multistate modeling and to create a practical calculator to provide prognostic information for patients and clinicians.Approach and Results: Adult patients undergoing LR for HCC between January 2000 and December 2018 were retrospectively identified at a single center. Multistate analysis modeled post-LR tumor progression by describing transitions between distinct disease states. In this model, the states included surgery, intrahepatic recurrence (first, second, third, fourth, fifth), distant metastasis with or without intrahepatic recurrence, and death. Of the 486 patients included, 169 (34.8%) remained recurrence-free, 205 (42.2%) developed intrahepatic recurrence, 80 (16.5%) developed distant metastasis, and 32 (7%) died. For an average patient having undergone LR, there was a 33.1% chance of remaining disease-free, a 31.0% chance of at least one intrahepatic recurrence, a 16.3% chance of distant metastasis, and a 19.8% chance of death within the first 60 months post-LR. The transition probability from surgery to first intrahepatic recurrence, without a subsequent state transition, increased from 3% (3 months) to 17.4% (30 months) and 17.2% (60 months). Factors that could modify these probabilities included tumor size, satellite lesions, and microvascular invasion. The online multistate model calculator can be found on https://multistatehcc.shinyapps.io/home/.Conclusions: In contrast to standard single time-to-event estimates, multistate modeling provides more realistic prognostication of outcomes after LR for HCC by taking into account many postoperative disease states and transitions between them. Our multistate modeling calculator can provide meaningful data to guide the management of patients undergoing postoperative surveillance and therapy.
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| 2. |
- Ivanics, Tommy, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term outcomes of laparoscopic liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma : A propensity score matched analysis of a high-volume North American center
- 2022
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Ingår i: Surgery. - : Elsevier. - 0039-6060 .- 1532-7361. ; 171:4, s. 982-991
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Laparoscopic liver resections for malignancy are increasing worldwide, and yet data from North America are lacking. We aimed to assess the long-term outcomes of patients undergoing laparoscopic liver resection and open liver resection as a treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma.Methods: Patients undergoing liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma between January 2008 and December 2019 were retrospectively studied. A propensity score matching was performed using patient demographics, laboratory parameters, etiology of liver disease, liver function, and tumor characteristics. Primary outcomes included overall survival and cumulative incidence of recurrence. Kaplan-Meier and competing risk cumulative incidence were used for survival analyses. Multivariable Cox regression and Fine-Gray proportional hazard regression were performed to determine hazard for death and recurrence, respectively.Results: Three hundred and ninety-one patients were identified (laparoscopic liver resection: 110; open liver resection: 281). After propensity score matching, 149 patients remained (laparoscopic liver resection: 57; open liver resection: 92). There were no significant differences between groups with regard to extent of hepatectomy performed and tumor characteristics. The laparoscopic liver resection group experienced a lower proportion of >= Clavien-Dindo grade III complications (14% vs 29%; P = .01). In the matched cohort, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rate in the laparoscopic liver resection versus open liver resection group was 90.9%, 79.3%, 70.5% vs 91.3%, 88.5%, 83.1% (P = .26), and the cumulative incidence of recurrence 31.1%, 59.7%, 62.9% vs 18.9%, 40.6%, 49.2% (P = .06), respectively.Conclusion: This study represents the largest single institutional study from North America comparing long-term oncologic outcomes of laparoscopic liver resection and open liver resection as a treatment for primary hepatocellular carcinoma. The combination of reduced short-term complications and equivalent long-term oncologic outcomes favor the laparoscopic approach when feasible.
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| 3. |
- Ivanics, Tommy, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term outcomes of retransplantation after live donor liver transplantation : A Western experience
- 2023
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Ingår i: Surgery. - : Elsevier. - 0039-6060 .- 1532-7361. ; 173:2, s. 529-536
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Despite most liver transplants in North America being from deceased donors, the number of living donor liver transplants has increased over the last decade. Although outcomes of liver retransplantation after deceased donor liver transplantation have been widely published, outcomes of retransplant after living donor liver transplant need to be further elucidated. Method: We aimed to compare waitlist outcomes and survival post-retransplant in recipients of initial living or deceased donor grafts. Adult liver recipients relisted at University Health Network between April 2000 and October 2020 were retrospectively identified and grouped according to their initial graft: living donor liver transplants or deceased donor liver transplant. A competing risk multivariable model evaluated the association between graft type at first transplant and outcomes after relisting. Survival after retransplant waitlisting (intention-to-treat) and after retransplant (per protocol) were also assessed. Multivariable Cox regression evaluated the effect of initial graft type on survival after retransplant. Results: A total of 201 recipients were relisted (living donor liver transplants, n = 67; donor liver transplants, n = 134) and 114 underwent retransplant (living donor liver transplants, n = 48; deceased donor liver transplants, n = 66). The waitlist mortality with an initial living donor liver transplant was not significantly different (hazard ratio = 0.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.23-1.10; P = .08). Both unadjusted and adjusted graft loss risks were similar post-retransplant. The risk-adjusted overall intentionto-treat survival after relisting (hazard ratio = 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-1.32; P =.30) and per protocol survival after retransplant (hazard ratio:1.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.54-4.19; P =.40) were equivalent in those who initially received a living donor liver transplant. Conclusion: Patients requiring relisting and retransplant after either living donor liver transplants or deceased donor liver transplantation experience similar waitlist and survival outcomes.
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| 4. |
- Ivanics, Tommy, et al.
(författare)
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Low utilization of adult-to-adult LDLT in Western countries despite excellent outcomes : International multicenter analysis of the US, the UK, and Canada
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Hepatology. - : Elsevier. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 77:6, s. 1607-1618
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background & Aims: Adult-to-adult living donor liver trans-plantation (LDLT) offers an opportunity to decrease the liver transplant waitlist and reduce waitlist mortality. We sought to compare donor and recipient characteristics and post-transplant outcomes after LDLT in the US, the UK, and Canada.Methods: This is a retrospective multicenter cohort-study of adults (>-18-years) who underwent primary LDLT between Jan -20 08 and Dec-2018 from three national liver transplantation registries: United Network for Organ Sharing (US), National Health Service Blood and Transplantation (UK), and the Canadian Organ Replacement Registry (Canada). Patients undergoing retransplantation or multi-organ transplantation were excluded. Post-transplant survival was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and multivariable adjustments were performed using Cox proportional-hazards models with mixed-effect modeling.Results: A total of 2,954 living donor liver transplants were performed (US: n = 2,328; Canada: n = 529; UK: n = 97). Canada has maintained the highest proportion of LDLT utilization over time (proportion of LDLT in 2008 - US: 3.3%; Canada: 19.5%; UK: 1.7%; p <0.001 - in 2018 - US: 5.0%; Canada: 13.6%; UK: 0.4%; p <0.001). The 1-, 5-, and 10-year patient survival was 92.6%, 82.8%, and 70.0% in the US vs. 96.1%, 89.9%, and 82.2% in Canada vs. 91.4%, 85.4%, and 66.7% in the UK. After adjustment for charac-teristics of donors, recipients, transplant year, and treating transplant center as a random effect, all countries had a non -statistically significantly different mortality hazard post-LDLT (Ref US: Canada hazard ratio 0.53, 95% CI 0.28-1.01, p = 0.05; UK hazard ratio 1.09, 95% CI 0.59-2.02, p = 0.78).Conclusions: The use of LDLT has remained low in the US, the UK and Canada. Despite this, long-term survival is excellent. Continued efforts to increase LDLT utilization in these countries may be warranted due to the growing waitlist and differences in allocation that may disadvantage patients currently awaiting liver transplantation.
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| 5. |
- Ivanics, Tommy, et al.
(författare)
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Machine learning-based mortality prediction models using national liver transplantation registries are feasible but have limited utility across countries
- 2023
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Ingår i: American Journal of Transplantation. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 1600-6135 .- 1600-6143. ; 23:1, s. 64-71
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many countries curate national registries of liver transplant (LT) data. These registries are often used to generate predictive models; however, potential performance and transferability of these models remain unclear. We data from 3 national registries and developed machine learning algorithm (MLA)-based models to predict 90 post-LT mortality within and across countries. Predictive performance and external validity of each model assessed. Prospectively collected data of adult patients (aged >= 18 years) who underwent primary LTs between January 2008 and December 2018 from the Canadian Organ Replacement Registry (Canada), National Service Blood and Transplantation (United Kingdom), and United Network for Organ Sharing (United were used to develop MLA models to predict 90-day post-LT mortality. Models were developed using each registry individually (based on variables inherent to the individual databases) and using all 3 registries combined iables in common between the registries [harmonized]). The model performance was evaluated using area the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. The number of patients included was as follows: Canada, = 1214; the United Kingdom, n = 5287; and the United States, n = 59,558. The best performing MLA-based model was ridge regression across both individual registries and harmonized data sets. Model performance diminished from individualized to the harmonized registries, especially in Canada (individualized ridge: AUROC, 0.74; range, 0.73-0.74; harmonized: AUROC, 0.68; range, 0.50-0.73) and US (individualized ridge: AUROC, range, 0.70-0.71; harmonized: AUROC, 0.66; range, 0.66-0.66) data sets. External model performance countries was poor overall. MLA-based models yield a fair discriminatory potential when used within individual databases. However, the external validity of these models is poor when applied across countries. Standardization of registry-based variables could facilitate the added value of MLA-based models in informing decision making future LTs.
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