| 1. |
- Kageyama, Masa, et al.
(författare)
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A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka : sea ice data compilation and model differences
- 2021
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 17:1, s. 37-62
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×106 km2, compared to 6.46×106 km2 for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×106 km2 for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; and LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally, we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations and simulations for future climate with moderate (1 % yr−1) CO2 increase show a relationship between LIG sea ice and sea ice simulated under CO2 increase around the years of doubling CO2. The LIG may therefore yield insight into likely 21st century Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.
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| 2. |
- Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., et al.
(författare)
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Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate : results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)
- 2021
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 17:1, s. 63-94
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka.New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions.The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.
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| 3. |
- Sime, Louise C., et al.
(författare)
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Warm climate isotopic simulations: what do we learn about interglacial signals in Greenland ice cores?
- 2013
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791. ; 67, s. 59-80
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Measurements of Last Interglacial stable water isotopes in ice cores show that central Greenland delta O-18 increased by at least 3 parts per thousand compared to present day. Attempting to quantify the Greenland interglacial temperature change from these ice core measurements rests on our ability to interpret the stable water isotope content of Greenland snow. Current orbitally driven interglacial simulations do not show delta O-18 or temperature rises of the correct magnitude, leading to difficulty in using only these experiments to inform our understanding of higher interglacial delta O-18. Here, analysis of greenhouse gas warmed simulations from two isotope-enabled general circulation models, in conjunction with a set of last Interglacial sea surface observations, indicates a possible explanation for the interglacial delta O-18 rise. A reduction in the winter time sea ice concentration around the northern half of Greenland, together with an increase in sea surface temperatures over the same region, is found to be sufficient to drive a >3 parts per thousand interglacial enrichment in central Greenland snow. Warm climate delta O-18 and delta D in precipitation falling on Greenland are shown to be strongly influenced by local sea surface condition changes: local sea surface warming and a shrunken sea ice extent increase the proportion of water vapour from local (isotopically enriched) sources, compared to that from distal (isotopically depleted) sources. Precipitation intermittency changes, under warmer conditions, leads to geographical variability in the delta O-18 against temperature gradients across Greenland. Little sea surface warming around the northern areas of Greenland leads to low delta O-18 against temperature gradients (0.1-0.3 parts per thousand. per degrees C), whilst large sea surface warmings in these regions leads to higher gradients (03-0.7 parts per thousand per degrees C). These gradients imply a wide possible range of present day to interglacial temperature increases (4 to >10 degrees C). Thus, we find that uncertainty about local interglacial sea surface conditions, rather than precipitation intermittency changes, may lead to the largest uncertainties in interpreting temperature from Greenland ice cores. We find that interglacial sea surface change observational records are currently insufficient to enable discrimination between these different delta O-18 against temperature gradients. In conclusion, further information on interglacial sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes around northern Greenland should indicate whether +5 degrees C during the Last Interglacial is sufficient to drive the observed ice core delta O-18 increase, or whether a larger temperature increases or ice sheet changes are also required to explain the ice core observations. (c) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 4. |
- Brown, Josephine R., et al.
(författare)
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Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models
- 2020
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:5, s. 1777-1805
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.
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| 5. |
- de Boer, Agatha M., et al.
(författare)
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Interconnectivity Between Volume Transports Through Arctic Straits
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans. - 2169-9275 .- 2169-9291. ; 123:12, s. 8714-8729
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arctic heat and freshwater budgets are highly sensitive to volume transports through the Arctic-Subarctic straits. Here we study the interconnectivity of volume transports through Arctic straits in three models; two coupled global climate models, one with a third-degree horizontal ocean resolution (High Resolution Global Environmental Model version 1.1 [HiGEM1.1]) and one with a twelfth-degree horizontal ocean resolution (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model 3 [HadGEM3]), and one ocean-only model with an idealized polar basin (tenth-degree horizontal resolution). The two global climate models indicate that there is a strong anticorrelation between the Bering Strait throughflow and the transport through the Nordic Seas, a second strong anticorrelation between the transport through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Nordic Seas transport, and a third strong anticorrelation is found between the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea throughflows. We find that part of the strait correlations is due to the strait transports being coincidentally driven by large-scale atmospheric forcing patterns. However, there is also a role for fast wave adjustments of some straits flows to perturbations in other straits since atmospheric forcing of individual strait flows alone cannot lead to near mass balance fortuitously every year. Idealized experiments with an ocean model (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean version 3.6) that investigate such causal strait relations suggest that perturbations in the Bering Strait are compensated preferentially in the Fram Strait due to the narrowness of the western Arctic shelf and the deeper depth of the Fram Strait. Plain Language Summary The Arctic is one of the most fragile places on the Earth, facing double the rate of warming as the rest of the globe. This warming is partly due to melting of sea ice because open water reflects less sunlight than ice. One of the major controls on Arctic sea ice concentration is the heat flowing into the Arctic through its straits. However, due to the harsh conditions in the Arctic, there are limited long-term observations of the currents flowing through these straits. Here we turn to climate models to investigate these Arctic straits flows and in particular focus on how flows into and out of the Arctic balance each other. We find that in some instances specific pairs of strait flows are simultaneously affected by large-scale atmospheric. In other instances, the inflow through one strait flows out through another distant strait because of the way the ocean floor guides the currents. Traditionally, the flows through Arctic straits are studied in relation to local forces such as wind and sea level. Our work suggests value in a more holistic approach; one that also accounts for flow changes in a strait as a response to flow changes in other straits.
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| 6. |
- de Boer, Agatha M., et al.
(författare)
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The Impact of Southern Ocean Topographic Barriers on the Ocean Circulation and the Overlying Atmosphere
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 35:18, s. 5805-5821
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Southern Ocean bathymetry constrains the path of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), but the bathymetric influence on the coupled ocean–atmosphere system is poorly understood. Here, we investigate this impact by respectively flattening large topographic barriers around the Kerguelen Plateau, Campbell Plateau, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and Drake Passage in four simulations in a coupled climate model. The barriers impact both the wind and buoyancy forcing of the ACC transport, which increases by between 4% and 14% when barriers are removed individually and by 56% when all barriers are removed simultaneously. The removal of Kerguelen Plateau bathymetry increases convection south of the plateau and the removal of Drake Passage bathymetry reduces convection upstream in the Ross Sea. When the barriers are removed, zonal flattening of the currents leads to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that strongly correlate to precipitation anomalies, with correlation coefficients ranging between r = 0.92 and r = 0.97 in the four experiments. The SST anomalies correlate to the surface winds too in some locations. However, they also generate circumpolar waves of sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies, which induce remote wind speed changes that are unconnected to the underlying SST field. The meridional variability in the wind stress curl contours over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Kerguelen Plateau, and the Campbell Plateau disappears when these barriers are removed, confirming the impact of bathymetry on surface winds. However, bathymetry-induced wind changes are too small to affect the overall wave-3 asymmetry in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. Removal of Southern Hemisphere orography is also inconsequential to the wave-3 pattern.
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| 7. |
- Sime, Louise C., et al.
(författare)
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Sea ice led to poleward-shifted winds at the Last Glacial Maximum : the influence of state dependency on CMIP5 and PMIP3 models
- 2016
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Ingår i: climate of the past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 12:12, s. 2241-2253
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Latitudinal shifts in the Southern Ocean westerly wind jet could drive changes in the glacial to interglacial ocean CO2 inventory. However, whilst CMIP5 model results feature consistent future-warming jet shifts, there is considerable disagreement in deglacial-warming jet shifts. We find here that the dependence of pre-industrial (PI) to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) jet shifts on PI jet position, or state dependency, explains less of the shifts in jet simulated by the models for the LGM compared with future-warming scenarios. State dependence is also weaker for intensity changes, compared to latitudinal shifts in the jet. Winter sea ice was considerably more extensive during the LGM. Changes in surface heat fluxes, due to this sea ice change, probably had a large impact on the jet. Models that both simulate realistically large expansions in sea ice and feature PI jets which are south of 50 degrees S show an increase in wind speed around 55 degrees S and can show a poleward shift in the jet between the PI and the LGM. However, models with the PI jet positioned equatorwards of around 47 degrees S do not show this response: the sea ice edge is too far from the jet for it to respond. In models with accurately positioned PI jets, a +1 degrees difference in the latitude of the sea ice edge tends to be associated with a -0.85 degrees shift in the 850 hPa jet. However, it seems that around 5 degrees of expansion of LGM sea ice is necessary to hold the jet in its PI position. Since the Gersonde et al. (2005) data support an expansion of more than 5 degrees, this result suggests that a slight poleward shift and intensification was the most likely jet change between the PI and the LGM. Without the effect of sea ice, models simulate poleward-shifted westerlies in warming climates and equatorward-shifted westerlies in colder climates. However, the feedback of sea ice counters and reverses the equatorward trend in cooler climates so that the LGM winds were more likely to have also been shifted slightly poleward.
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| 8. |
- Sime, Louise C., et al.
(författare)
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Southern Hemisphere westerly wind changes during the Last Glacial Maximum : model-data comparison
- 2013
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 64, s. 104-120
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly winds are thought to be critical to global ocean circulation, productivity, and carbon storage. For example, an equatorward shift in the winds, though its affect on the Southern Ocean circulation, has been suggested as the leading cause for the reduction in atmospheric CO2 during the Last Glacial period. Despite the importance of the winds, it is currently not clear, from observations or model results, how they behave during the Last Glacial. Here, an atmospheric modelling study is performed to help determine likely changes in the SH westerly winds during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Using LGM boundary conditions, the maximum in SH westerlies is strengthened by similar to+1 m s(-1) and moved southward by similar to 2 degrees at the 850 hPa pressure level. Boundary layer stabilisation effects over equatorward extended LGM sea-ice can lead to a small apparent equatorward shift in the wind band at the surface. Further sensitivity analysis with individual boundary condition changes indicate that changes in sea surface temperatures are the strongest factor behind the wind change. The HadAM3 atmospheric simulations, along with published PMIP2 coupled climate model simulations, are then assessed against the newly synthesised database of moisture observations for the LGM. Although the moisture data is the most commonly cited evidence in support of a large equatorward shift in the SH winds during the LGM, none of the models that produce realistic LGM precipitation changes show such a large equatorward shift. In fact, the model which best simulates the moisture proxy data is the HadAM3 LGM simulation which shows a small poleward wind shift. While we cannot prove here that a large equatorward shift would not be able to reproduce the moisture data as well, we show that the moisture proxies do not provide an observational evidence base for it.
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| 9. |
- Sime, Louise C., et al.
(författare)
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Summer surface air temperature proxies point to near-sea-ice-free conditions in the Arctic at 127 ka
- 2023
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 19:4, s. 883-900
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Last Interglacial (LIG) period, which had higher summer solar insolation than today, has been suggested as the last time that Arctic summers were ice free. However, the latest suite of Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project 6 Paleoclimate (CMIP6-PMIP4) simulations of the LIG produce a wide range of Arctic summer minimum sea ice area (SIA) results, with a 30% to 96% reduction from the pre-industrial (PI) period. Sea ice proxies are also currently neither abundant nor consistent enough to determine the most realistic state. Here we estimate LIG minimum SIA indirectly through the use of 21 proxy records for LIG summer surface air temperature (SSAT) and 11 CMIP6-PMIP4 models for the LIG. We use two approaches. First, we use two tests to determine how skilful models are at simulating reconstructed Delta SSAT from proxy records (where Delta refers to LIG-PI). This identifies a positive correlation between model skill and the magnitude of Delta SIA: the most reliable models simulate a larger sea ice reduction. Averaging the two most skilful models yields an average SIA of 1 :3 x 10(6) km(2) for the LIG. This equates to a 4 :5 x 10(6) km(2) or 79% SIA reduction from the PI to the LIG. Second, across the 11 models, the averaged Delta SSAT at the 21 proxy locations and the pan-Arctic average Delta SSAT are inversely correlated with Delta SIA ( r = - 0.86 and 0.79, respectively). In other words, the models show that a larger Arctic warming is associated with a greater sea ice reduction. Using the proxy-record-averaged Delta SSAT of 4 :5 +/- 1 :7K and the relationship between Delta SSAT and Delta SIA suggests an estimated sea ice reduction of 4:2 +/- 1:4 x 10(6) km(2) or about 74% less sea ice than the PI period. The mean proxy-location Delta SSAT is well correlated with the Arctic-wide Delta SSAT north of 60 degrees N (r = D 0:97), and this relationship is used to show that the mean proxy record Delta SSAT is equivalent to an Arctic-wide warming of 3 :7 +/- 1 :5K at the LIG compared to the PI period. Applying this Arctic-wide Delta SSAT and its modelled relationship to Delta SIA, results in a similar estimate of LIG sea ice reduction of 4 :1 +/- 1 :2 x 10(6) km(2). These LIG climatological minimum SIA of 1.3 to 1.5 x 10(6) km(2) are close to the definition of a summer ice-free Arctic, which is a maximum sea ice extent of less than 1 x 10(6) km(2). The results of this study thus suggest that the Arctic likely experienced a mixture of ice-free and near-ice-free summers during the LIG.
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