| 1. |
- Fazey, Ioan, et al.
(författare)
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Ten essentials for action-oriented and second order energy transitions, transformations and climate change research
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy Research and Social Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-6296 .- 2214-6326. ; 40, s. 54-70
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The most critical question for climate research is no longer about the problem, but about how to facilitate the transformative changes necessary to avoid catastrophic climate-induced change. Addressing this question, however, will require massive upscaling of research that can rapidly enhance learning about transformations. Ten essentials for guiding action-oriented transformation and energy research are therefore presented, framed in relation to second-order science. They include: (1) Focus on transformations to low-carbon, resilient living; (2) Focus on solution processes; (3) Focus on ‘how to’ practical knowledge; (4) Approach research as occurring from within the system being intervened; (5) Work with normative aspects; (6) Seek to transcend current thinking; (7) Take a multi-faceted approach to understand and shape change; (8) Acknowledge the value of alternative roles of researchers; (9) Encourage second-order experimentation; and (10) Be reflexive. Joint application of the essentials would create highly adaptive, reflexive, collaborative and impact-oriented research able to enhance capacity to respond to the climate challenge. At present, however, the practice of such approaches is limited and constrained by dominance of other approaches. For wider transformations to low carbon living and energy systems to occur, transformations will therefore also be needed in the way in which knowledge is produced and used.
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| 2. |
- Mann, Richard P., et al.
(författare)
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Choice modelling with Gaussian processes in the social sciences : A case study of neighbourhood choice in Stockholm
- 2018
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. - 1932-6203. ; 13:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a non parametric extension of the conditional logit model, using Gaussian process priors. The conditional logit model is used in quantitative social science for inferring interaction effects between personal features and choice characteristics from observations of individual multinomial decisions, such as where to live, which car to buy or which school to choose. The classic, parametric model presupposes a latent utility function that is a linear combination of choice characteristics and their interactions with personal features. This imposes strong and unrealistic constraints on the form of individuals' preferences. Extensions using non-linear basis functions derived from the original features can ameliorate this problem but at the cost of high model complexity and increased reliance on the user in model specification. In this paper we develop a non-parametric conditional logit model based on Gaussian process logit models. We demonstrate its application on housing choice data from over 50,000 moving households from the Stockholm area over a two year period to reveal complex homophilic patterns in income, ethnicity and parental status.
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| 3. |
- Mann, Richard P., et al.
(författare)
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Non-Linear Choice Modelling with Gaussian Processes : A Case Study of Neighbourhood Choice in Stockholm
- 2016
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We present a non-parametric extension of the conditional logit model, using Gaussian pro- cess priors. The conditional logit model is used in quantitative social science for inferring interaction effects between personal features and choice characteristics from observations of individual multinomial decisions, such as where to live, which car to buy or which school to choose. The classic, parametric model presupposes a latent utility function that is a linear combination of choice characteristics and their interactions with personal features. This imposes strong and unrealistic constraints on the form of individuals’ preferences. Extensions using non-linear basis functions derived from the original features can ameliorate this problem but at the cost of high model complexity and increased reliance on the user in model specification. In this paper we develop a novel, non-parametric conditional logit model based on Gaussian process logit models. We demonstrate its application on housing choice data from over 50,000 moving households from the Stockholm area over a two year period to reveal complex homophilic patterns in income, ethnicity and parental status.
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| 4. |
- Ranganathan, Shyam, et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian Dynamical Systems Modelling in the Social Sciences
- 2014
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 9:1, s. e86468-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Data arising from social systems is often highly complex, involving non-linear relationships between the macro-level variables that characterize these systems. We present a method for analyzing this type of longitudinal or panel data using differential equations. We identify the best non-linear functions that capture interactions between variables, employing Bayes factor to decide how many interaction terms should be included in the model. This method punishes overly complicated models and identifies models with the most explanatory power. We illustrate our approach on the classic example of relating democracy and economic growth, identifying non-linear relationships between these two variables. We show how multiple variables and variable lags can be accounted for and provide a toolbox in R to implement our approach.
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| 5. |
- Ranganathan, Shyam, et al.
(författare)
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Understanding Democracy and Development Traps Using a Data-Driven Approach
- 2015
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Ingår i: Big Data. - : Mary Ann Liebert Inc. - 2167-6461 .- 2167-647X. ; 3:1, s. 22-33
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods from machine learning and data science are becoming increasingly important in the social sciences, providing powerful new ways of identifying statistical relationships in large data sets. However, these relationships do not necessarily offer an understanding of the processes underlying the data. To address this problem, we have developed a method for fitting nonlinear dynamical systems models to data related to social change. Here, we use this method to investigate how countries become trapped at low levels of socioeconomic development. We identify two types of traps. The first is a democracy trap, where countries with low levels of economic growth and/or citizen education fail to develop democracy. The second trap is in terms of cultural values, where countries with low levels of democracy and/or life expectancy fail to develop emancipative values. We show that many key developing countries, including India and Egypt, lie near the border of these development traps, and we investigate the time taken for these nations to transition toward higher democracy and socioeconomic well-being.
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| 6. |
- Romenskyy, Maksym, et al.
(författare)
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Polarized Ukraine 2014 : opinion and territorial split demonstrated with the bounded confidence by model, parametrized XY Twitter data
- 2018
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Ingår i: Royal Society Open Science. - : ROYAL SOC. - 2054-5703. ; 5:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multiple countries have recently experienced extreme political polarization, which, in some cases, led to escalation of hate crime, violence and political instability. Besides the much discussed presidential elections in the USA and France, Britain's Brexit vote and Turkish constitutional referendum showed signs of extreme polarization. Among the countries affected, Ukraine faced some of the gravest consequences. In an attempt to understand the mechanisms of these phenomena, we here combine social media analysis with agent-based modelling of opinion dynamics, targeting Ukraine's crisis of 2014. We use Twitter data to quantify changes in the opinion divide and parametrize an extended bounded confidence XY model, which provides a spatio-temporal description of the polarization dynamics. We demonstrate that the level of emotional intensity is a major driving force for polarization that can lead to a spontaneous onset of collective behaviour at a certain degree of homophily and conformity. We find that the critical level of emotional intensity corresponds to a polarization transition, marked by a sudden increase in the degree of involvement and in the opinion bimodality.
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| 7. |
- Spaiser, Viktoria, et al.
(författare)
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Identifying Complex Dynamics in Social Systems : A New Methodological Approach Applied to Study School Segregation
- 2018
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Ingår i: Sociological Methods & Research. - : SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC. - 0049-1241 .- 1552-8294. ; 47:2, s. 103-135
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is widely recognized that segregation processes are often the result of complex nonlinear dynamics. Empirical analyses of complex dynamics are however rare, because there is a lack of appropriate empirical modeling techniques that are capable of capturing complex patterns and nonlinearities. At the same time, we know that many social phenomena display nonlinearities. In this article, we introduce a new modeling tool in order to partly fill this void in the literature. Using data of all secondary schools in Stockholm county during the years 1990 to 2002, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied to identify complex dynamic patterns like tipping points and multiple phase transitions with respect to segregation. We establish critical thresholds in schools' ethnic compositions, in general, and in relation to various factors such as school quality and parents' income, at which the schools are likely to tip and become increasingly segregated.
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| 8. |
- Spaiser, Viktoria, et al.
(författare)
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Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization
- 2024
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 15:5, s. 1179-1206
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In recent years, research on normatively positive social tipping dynamics in response to the climate crisis has produced invaluable insights. In contrast, relatively little attention has been given to the potentially negative social tipping processes that might unfold due to an increasingly destabilized Earth system and to how they might in turn reinforce social and ecological destabilization dynamics and/or impede positive social change. In this paper, we discuss selected potential negative social tipping processes (anomie, radicalization and polarization, displacement, conflict, and financial destabilization) linked to Earth system destabilization. We draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions (e.g. food insecurity and displacement) contributing to systemic risks. This first attempt to provide an explorative conceptualization and empirical account of potential negative social tipping dynamics linked to Earth system destabilization is intended to motivate further research into an under-studied area that is nonetheless crucial for our ability to respond to the climate crisis and for ensuring that positive social tipping dynamics are not averted by negative ones.
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| 9. |
- Spaiser, Viktoria, et al.
(författare)
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Revising the Human Development Sequence Theory Using an Agent-Based Approach and Data
- 2016
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Ingår i: JASSS. - : Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation. - 1460-7425. ; 19:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Agent-based models and computer simulations are promising tools for studying emergent macrophenomena. We apply an agent-based approach in combination with data analysis to investigate the human development sequence (HDS) theory developed by Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel. Although the HDS theory is supported by correlational evidence, the sequence of economic growth, democracy and emancipation stated by the theory is not entirely consistent with data. We use an agent-based model to make quantitative predictions about several different micro-level mechanisms. Comparison to data allows us to identify important inconsistencies between HDS and the data, and propose revised agent-based models that modify the theory. Our results indicate the importance of elites and economic inequality in explaining the data available on democratisation.
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| 10. |
- Spaiser, Viktoria, et al.
(författare)
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The Dynamics of Democracy, Development and Cultural Values
- 2014
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 9:6, s. e97856-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past decades many countries have experienced rapid changes in their economies, their democratic institutions and the values of their citizens. Comprehensive data measuring these changes across very different countries has recently become openly available. Between country similarities suggest common underlying dynamics in how countries develop in terms of economy, democracy and cultural values. We apply a novel Bayesian dynamical systems approach to identify the model which best captures the complex, mainly non-linear dynamics that underlie these changes. We show that the level of Human Development Index (HDI) in a country drives first democracy and then higher emancipation of citizens. This change occurs once the countries pass a certain threshold in HDI. The data also suggests that there is a limit to the growth of wealth, set by higher emancipation. Having reached a high level of democracy and emancipation, societies tend towards equilibrium that does not support further economic growth. Our findings give strong empirical evidence against a popular political science theory, known as the Human Development Sequence. Contrary to this theory, we find that implementation of human-rights and democratisation precede increases in emancipative values.
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