| 1. |
- D’Andrea, S. D. D., et al.
(författare)
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Aerosol size distribution and radiative forcing response to anthropogenically driven historical changes in biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation
- 2015
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 15, s. 2247-2268
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have changed in the past millennium due to changes in land use, temperature, and CO2 concentrations. Recent reconstructions of BVOC emissions have predicted that global isoprene emissions have decreased, while monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions have increased; however, all three show regional variability due to competition between the various influencing factors. In this work, we use two modeled estimates of BVOC emissions from the years 1000 to 2000 to test the effect of anthropogenic changes to BVOC emissions on secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, global aerosol size distributions, and radiative effects using the GEOS-Chem-TOMAS (Goddard Earth Observing System; TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional) global aerosol microphysics model. With anthropogenic emissions (e.g., SO2, NOx, primary aerosols) turned off and BVOC emissions changed from year 1000 to year 2000 values, decreases in the number concentration of particles of size Dp > 80 nm (N80) of > 25% in year 2000 relative to year 1000 were predicted in regions with extensive land-use changes since year 1000 which led to regional increases in the combined aerosol radiative effect (direct and indirect) of > 0.5 W m−2 in these regions. We test the sensitivity of our results to BVOC emissions inventory, SOA yields, and the presence of anthropogenic emissions; however, the qualitative response of the model to historic BVOC changes remains the same in all cases. Accounting for these uncertainties, we estimate millennial changes in BVOC emissions cause a global mean direct effect of between +0.022 and +0.163 W m−2 and the global mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect of between −0.008 and −0.056 W m−2. This change in aerosols, and the associated radiative forcing, could be a largely overlooked and important anthropogenic aerosol effect on regional climates.
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| 2. |
- D'Andrea, S. D., et al.
(författare)
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Effect of Secondary Organic Aerosol Amount and Condensational Behavior on Global Aerosol Size Distributions
- 2013
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Ingår i: NUCLEATION AND ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOLS. - : American Institute of Physics (AIP). - 9780735411524 ; , s. 667-670
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent research has shown that secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are major contributors to ultrafine particle growth to climatically relevant sizes, increasing global cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations within the continental boundary layer. Many models treat SOA solely as semivolatile, which leads to condensation of SOA proportional to the aerosol mass distribution; however, recent closure studies with field measurements show that a significant fraction of SOA condenses proportional to the aerosol surface area, which suggests a very low volatility. Additionally, while many global models contain only biogenic sources of SOA (with emissions generally 10-30 Tg yr(-1)), recent studies have shown a need for an additional source of SOA around 100 Tg yr(-1) correlated with anthropogenic carbon monoxide (CO) emissions is required to match measurements. Here, we explore the significance of these two findings using the GEOS-Chem-TOMAS global aerosol microphysics model. The percent change in the number of particles of size D-p > 40 nm (N40) within the continental boundary layer between the surface-area-and mass-distribution condensation schemes, both with the base biogenic SOA only, yielded a global increase of 8% but exceeds 100% in biogenically active regions. The percent change in N40 within the continental boundary layer between the base simulation (19 Tg yr(-1)) and the additional SOA (100 Tg yr(-1)) both using the surface area condensation scheme (very low volatility) yielded a global increase of 14%, and a global decrease in the number of particles of size D-p > 10 nm (N10) of 32%. These model simulations were compared to measured data from Hyytiala, Finland and other global locations and confirmed a decrease in the model-measurement bias. Thus, treating SOA as very low volatile as well as including additional SOA correlated with anthropogenic CO emissions causes a significant global increase in the number of climatically relevant sized particles, and therefore we must continue to refine our SOA treatments in aerosol microphysics models.
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| 3. |
- D'Andrea, S. D., et al.
(författare)
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Understanding global secondary organic aerosol amount and size-resolved condensational behavior
- 2013
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 13:22, s. 11519-11534
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent research has shown that secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are major contributors to ultrafine particle growth to climatically relevant sizes, increasing global cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations within the continental boundary layer (BL). However, there are three recent developments regarding the condensation of SOA that lead to uncertainties in the contribution of SOA to particle growth and CCN concentrations: (1) while many global models contain only biogenic sources of SOA (with annual production rates generally 10-30 Tg yr(-1)), recent studies have shown that an additional source of SOA around 100 Tg yr(-1) correlated with anthropogenic carbon monoxide (CO) emissions may be required to match measurements. (2) Many models treat SOA solely as semi-volatile, which leads to condensation of SOA proportional to the aerosol mass distribution; however, recent closure studies with field measurements show nucleation mode growth can be captured only if it is assumed that a significant fraction of SOA condenses proportional to the Fuchs-corrected aerosol surface area. This suggests a very low volatility of the condensing vapors. (3) Other recent studies of particle growth show that SOA con-densation at sizes smaller than 10 nm and that size-dependent growth rate parameterizations (GRP) are needed to match measurements. We explore the significance of these three findings using GEOS-Chem-TOMAS global aerosol microphysics model and observations of aerosol size distributions around the globe. The change in the concentration of particles of size D-p > 40 nm (N40) within the BL assuming surface-area condensation compared to mass-distribution net condensation yielded a global increase of 11% but exceeded 100% in biogenically active regions. The percent change in N40 within the BL with the inclusion of the additional 100 Tg SOAyr(-1) compared to the base simulation solely with biogenic SOA emissions (19 Tg yr-1) both using surface area condensation yielded a global increase of 13.7 %, but exceeded 50% in regions with large CO emissions. The inclusion of two different GRPs in the additional-SOA case both yielded a global increase in N40 of < 1 %, however exceeded 5% in some locations in the most extreme case. All of the model simulations were compared to measured data obtained from diverse locations around the globe and the results confirmed a decrease in the model-measurement bias and improved slope for comparing modeled to measured CCN number concentration when non-volatile SOA was assumed and the extra SOA was included.
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| 4. |
- Fuzzi, S., et al.
(författare)
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Particulate matter, air quality and climate : lessons learned and future needs
- 2015
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 15:14, s. 8217-8299
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The literature on atmospheric particulate matter (PM), or atmospheric aerosol, has increased enormously over the last 2 decades and amounts now to some 1500-2000 papers per year in the refereed literature. This is in part due to the enormous advances in measurement technologies, which have allowed for an increasingly accurate understanding of the chemical composition and of the physical properties of atmospheric particles and of their processes in the atmosphere. The growing scientific interest in atmospheric aerosol particles is due to their high importance for environmental policy. In fact, particulate matter constitutes one of the most challenging problems both for air quality and for climate change policies. In this context, this paper reviews the most recent results within the atmospheric aerosol sciences and the policy needs, which have driven much of the increase in monitoring and mechanistic research over the last 2 decades. The synthesis reveals many new processes and developments in the science underpinning climate-aerosol interactions and effects of PM on human health and the environment. However, while airborne particulate matter is responsible for globally important influences on premature human mortality, we still do not know the relative importance of the different chemical components of PM for these effects. Likewise, the magnitude of the overall effects of PM on climate remains highly uncertain. Despite the uncertainty there are many things that could be done to mitigate local and global problems of atmospheric PM. Recent analyses have shown that reducing black carbon (BC) emissions, using known control measures, would reduce global warming and delay the time when anthropogenic effects on global temperature would exceed 2 degrees C. Likewise, cost-effective control measures on ammonia, an important agricultural precursor gas for secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA), would reduce regional eutrophication and PM concentrations in large areas of Europe, China and the USA. Thus, there is much that could be done to reduce the effects of atmospheric PM on the climate and the health of the environment and the human population. A prioritized list of actions to mitigate the full range of effects of PM is currently undeliverable due to shortcomings in the knowledge of aerosol science; among the shortcomings, the roles of PM in global climate and the relative roles of different PM precursor sources and their response to climate and land use change over the remaining decades of this century are prominent. In any case, the evidence from this paper strongly advocates for an integrated approach to air quality and climate policies.
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| 5. |
- Hamilton, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 9:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Uncertainty in pre-industrial natural aerosol emissions is a major component of the overall uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate. Improved characterisation of natural emissions and their radiative effects can therefore increase the accuracy of global climate model projections. Here we show that revised assumptions about pre-industrial fire activity result in significantly increased aerosol concentrations in the pre-industrial atmosphere. Revised global model simulations predict a 35% reduction in the calculated global mean cloud albedo forcing over the Industrial Era (1750–2000 CE) compared to estimates using emissions data from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. An estimated upper limit to pre-industrial fire emissions results in a much greater (91%) reduction in forcing. When compared to 26 other uncertain parameters or inputs in our model, pre-industrial fire emissions are by far the single largest source of uncertainty in pre-industrial aerosol concentrations, and hence in our understanding of the magnitude of the historical radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol emissions.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Mann, G. W., et al.
(författare)
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Intercomparison and evaluation of global aerosol microphysical properties among AeroCom models of a range of complexity
- 2014
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 14:9, s. 4679-4713
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations to be determined by fundamental aerosol processes, which should lead to a more physically based simulation of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. This study examines the global variation in particle size distribution simulated by 12 global aerosol microphysics models to quantify model diversity and to identify any common biases against observations. Evaluation against size distribution measurements from a new European network of aerosol supersites shows that the mean model agrees quite well with the observations at many sites on the annual mean, but there are some seasonal biases common to many sites. In particular, at many of these European sites, the accumulation mode number concentration is biased low during winter and Aitken mode concentrations tend to be overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. At high northern latitudes, the models strongly underpredict Aitken and accumulation particle concentrations compared to the measurements, consistent with previous studies that have highlighted the poor performance of global aerosol models in the Arctic. In the marine boundary layer, the models capture the observed meridional variation in the size distribution, which is dominated by the Aitken mode at high latitudes, with an increasing concentration of accumulation particles with decreasing latitude. Considering vertical profiles, the models reproduce the observed peak in total particle concentrations in the upper troposphere due to new particle formation, although modelled peak concentrations tend to be biased high over Europe. Overall, the multimodel-mean data set simulates the global variation of the particle size distribution with a good degree of skill, suggesting that most of the individual global aerosol microphysics models are performing well, although the large model diversity indicates that some models are in poor agreement with the observations. Further work is required to better constrain size-resolved primary and secondary particle number sources, and an improved understanding of nucleation and growth (e. g. the role of nitrate and secondary organics) will improve the fidelity of simulated particle size distributions.
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| 8. |
- Pierce, J. R., et al.
(författare)
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Weak global sensitivity of cloud condensation nuclei and the aerosol indirect effect to Criegee + SO2 chemistry
- 2013
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7324. ; 13:6, s. 3163-3176
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- H2SO4 vapor is important for the nucleation of atmospheric aerosols and the growth of ultrafine particles to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) sizes with important roles in the global aerosol budget and hence planetary radiative forcing. Recent studies have found that reactions of stabilized Criegee intermediates (CIs, formed from the ozonolysis of alkenes) with SO2 may be an important source of H2SO4 that has been missing from atmospheric aerosol models. For the first time in a global model, we investigate the impact of this new source of H2SO4 in the atmosphere. We use the chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, with the online aerosol microphysics module, TOMAS, to estimate the possible impact of CIs on present-day H2SO4, CCN, and the cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect (AIE). We extend the standard GEOS-Chem chemistry with CI-forming reactions (ozonolysis of isoprene, methyl vinyl ketone, methacrolein, propene, and monoterpenes) from the Master Chemical Mechanism. Using a fast rate constant for CI+SO2, we find that the addition of this chemistry increases the global production of H2SO4 by 4 %. H2SO4 concentrations increase by over 100% in forested tropical boundary layers and by over 10-25% in forested NH boundary layers (up to 100% in July) due to CI+SO2 chemistry, but the change is generally negligible elsewhere. The predicted changes in CCN were strongly dampened to the CI+ SO2 changes in H2SO4 in some regions: less than 15% in tropical forests and less than 2% in most mid-latitude locations. The global-mean CCN change was less than 1% both in the boundary layer and the free troposphere. The associated cloud-albedo AIE change was less than 0.03 W m(-2). The model global sensitivity of CCN and the AIE to CI+SO2 chemistry is significantly (approximately one order-of-magnitude) smaller than the sensitivity of CCN and AIE to other uncertain model inputs, such as nucleation mechanisms, primary emissions, SOA (secondary organic aerosol) and deposition. Similarly, comparisons to size-distribution measurements show that uncertainties in other model parameters dominate model biases in the model-predicted size distributions. We conclude that improvement in the modeled CI+SO2 chemistry would not likely lead to significant improvements in present-day CCN and AIE predictions.
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| 9. |
- Reddington, C. L., et al.
(författare)
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Primary versus secondary contributions to particle number concentrations in the European boundary layer
- 2011
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 11:23, s. 12007-12036
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is important to understand the relative contribution of primary and secondary particles to regional and global aerosol so that models can attribute aerosol radiative forcing to different sources. In large-scale models, there is considerable uncertainty associated with treatments of particle formation (nucleation) in the boundary layer (BL) and in the size distribution of emitted primary particles, leading to uncertainties in predicted cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. Here we quantify how primary particle emissions and secondary particle formation influence size-resolved particle number concentrations in the BL using a global aerosol microphysics model and aircraft and ground site observations made during the May 2008 campaign of the European Integrated Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate Air Quality Interactions (EUCAARI). We tested four different parameterisations for BL nucleation and two assumptions for the emission size distribution of anthropogenic and wildfire carbonaceous particles. When we emit carbonaceous particles at small sizes (as recommended by the Aerosol Inter-comparison project, AEROCOM), the spatial distributions of campaign-mean number concentrations of particles with diameter >50 nm (N(50)) and >100 nm (N(100)) were well captured by the model (R(2)>= 0.8) and the normalised mean bias (NMB) was also small (-18% for N(50) and -1% for N(100)). Emission of carbonaceous particles at larger sizes, which we consider to be more realistic for low spatial resolution global models, results in equally good correlation but larger bias (R(2)>= 0.8, NMB = -52% and -29%), which could be partly but not entirely compensated by BL nucleation. Within the uncertainty of the observations and accounting for the uncertainty in the size of emitted primary particles, BL nucleation makes a statistically significant contribution to CCN-sized particles at less than a quarter of the ground sites. Our results show that a major source of uncertainty in CCN-sized particles in polluted European air is the emitted size of primary carbonaceous particles. New information is required not just from direct observations, but also to determine the effective emission size and composition of primary particles appropriate for different resolution models.
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| 10. |
- Reddington, C. L., et al.
(författare)
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THE GLOBAL AEROSOL SYNTHESIS AND SCIENCE PROJECT (GASSP) : Measurements and Modeling to Reduce Uncertainty
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:9, s. 1857-1877
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by changes in aerosol particles due to anthropogenic activity. Sophisticated aerosol microphysics processes have been included in many climate models in an effort to reduce the uncertainty. However, the models are very challenging to evaluate and constrain because they require extensive in situ measurements of the particle size distribution, number concentration, and chemical composition that are not available from global satellite observations. The Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP) aims to improve the robustness of global aerosol models by combining new methodologies for quantifying model uncertainty, to create an extensive global dataset of aerosol in situ microphysical and chemical measurements, and to develop new ways to assess the uncertainty associated with comparing sparse point measurements with low-resolution models. GASSP has assembled over 45,000 hours of measurements from ships and aircraft as well as data from over 350 ground stations. The measurements have been harmonized into a standardized format that is easily used by modelers and nonspecialist users. Available measurements are extensive, but they are biased to polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere, leaving large pristine regions and many continental areas poorly sampled. The aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty can be reduced using a rigorous model-data synthesis approach. Nevertheless, our research highlights significant remaining challenges because of the difficulty of constraining many interwoven model uncertainties simultaneously. Although the physical realism of global aerosol models still needs to be improved, the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing will be reduced most effectively by systematically and rigorously constraining the models using extensive syntheses of measurements.
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